Someone said he was like Asimov's Mule in that way.
I guess that does not extend to
his fertility
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NBC GOP National poll: Trump leads, Cruz eats Carson, Jeb!: ¯\_()_/¯
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Someone said he was like Asimov's Mule in that way.
I guess that does not extend to
From the way you're asking the question, it seems like you're misunderstanding the differences between our political systems. Whoever becomes the Republican nominee will either win the Presidency, or they won't. If they lose, they don't become a minority leader, or even have any position in government at all. Four years afterwards they can take a crack at it again if they want to by mounting new campaigns, but the losing nominee just goes home, they don't lead the opposition. The closest thing we have to that are the House and Senate Minority Leaders, who are members in the Congress, and are separate from the Executive branch.
So who wins the party nomination has no major consequences outside of this election, and doesn't necessarily predict who will be the nominee an election or two down the line.
Skinny Pete
Banned
Ted Cruz? Jesus Christ.
Extra Sauce
Member
Cruz seems more evil than stupid.
Civil Rights Act. Once it was enacted, all the morons left the Democratic party and went straight to Republican.
BotoxAgent
Member
Jeb LOL
psynergylover
Member
Jeb! Jeb!?......jeb?
They all have insane positions based on any reasonable measure.
googleplex
Member
BoboBrazil
Member
Some of these guys need to drop out. There shouldn't be like 10 nominees running at this point. Still out of the Republican nominees I'd like Trump to win the most. Would be hilarious watching him vs. Hilary. I think it will be Rubio eventually though with the nomination. He is the only one with a shot to win against Hilary and big donors keep bringing their support to him. I don't think the GOP will ever actually support Trump.
Ninja Scooter
Member
Rubio probably does terribly with the kind of person favoring Trump and Carson. He's too slick, rehearsed and phony. He's an insider. These people want an "outsider" no matter how dumb and incompetent that outsider might be.
The guy who posted this earlier today:
Thinks Nate Silver is delusional.
The way that the American presidential election is laid out means that the votes individual states are more important than they are on the national level. And with the way that the Electoral Votes are distributed, the Democrats have a large advantage purely from a structural perspective. Basically, the only important states are the swing state which have a chance of going with either the Democratic or the Republican candidate. And the Democrats have to win a lot fewer of these states to secure the win. It's conceivable that they may end up locking up the White House for a long time.
As for the Republican nomination, if the winner ends up being Trump and he flames out during the general election, the Republican party itself may end up getting split and the two-party system might change. None of the current Republican candidates are very moderate, and they all espouse bad ideas, so there isn't any good alternative.
Texas has been trending more Democratic for a long time. If the demographic trends hold, and the Republicans are still poison to Hispanic voters, it'll turn Democratic permanently at some point in the near future, and the Republicans may never win another presidential race again. A Trump nomination could well end up accelerating this process.
RustyNails
Member
After Fiorina and Rubio fizzle, it's Cruz time to shine. He will stay there for some time and then tank hard.
What proportion of that population votes versus everyone outside of that population?
The Last Emperor
Member
Guys, what's the single scariest/stupidest quote that each candidate has said?
I gotta go with Bush saying he would have some kind of Christianity test to only bring Christians over as refugees. Lmao what a dummy
I gotta go with Bush saying he would have some kind of Christianity test to only bring Christians over as refugees. Lmao what a dummy
Ziltoidia 9
Member
Yall are putting way too much trust into Hillary not screwing us over. I'd rather have a Dem in of course, but I fear she is going to do a lot with our civil liberties via SOPA type things....
Ben Carson who insisted that he stabbed his mother.
Doesn't matter if it's true or not. It's a scary thought to think somebody who tried to kill his mom is in charge of the American army and the nuclear arsenals.
UberTag
Member
I like Ted Cruz because he's Canadian.
I hope he gives Stephen Harper inspiration to think he can become President of the United States someday.
Yes I understand how it works, but my line of thinking is that whoever the nominee is will be like a... say "inspiration" and a sort of standard for future generations. Like if you get Trump now, things may get worse because the Republicans solution to winning/losing/anything seems to be going even more extreme.
Dude totally creeps me out. I'm not the type of person to bring someone's looks into a political discussion, but he just looks so damn slimy. I think Wormtongue when I see him - he knows what to say to get people behind him, but what he really wants is far more dangerous than just about anyone running alongside him wants, save perhaps Trump and his descent into full Hitler mode.
People still holding out for the establishment.
aspiegamer
Member
It's total bullshit.
Don't trust any "prediction markets" unless there are people betting actual money on them. Yes, these exist. This CNN garbage is a mix of a crummy computer algorithm and a political popularity contest.
People actually putting their money on the line aren't keen with Rubio in Iowa, though he is the favorite to win the nomination for now.
I just noticed the huge disparity between recent poll data, and any kind of prediction markets.
Basically every oddsmaker has Rubio in the lead, despite those polls.
Rubio is the only establishment candidate left with Jeb! completely floundering.
Until we actually see an outsider start winning primaries they're not going to shift from an establishment candidate being the favorite.
Who is "they"? I would assume, betting sites attract a number of customers at least as large as a polling sample.
aspiegamer
Member
Before voting actually starts I prefer to look at these things as not a raw % or direct odds, but it's a representation of people in the market that think he's the safest bet. Right now, as the top establishment candidate and someone who's had generally even performance the entire year, Rubio is the smartest money. Not necessarily the smart money or the man with the highest actual likelihood of a win, but smartest at this snapshot of time. People are holding their money in Rubio while they wait for others to move.
Disclaimer: Sites that take straight betting odds and ones that sell on a "market" don't necessarily think alike, depending on how much control people like to have with their money. I'm much more a believer of the market format in terms of accuracy. Not a fan of X/X or X:X sports-style gambling with politics.
This makes sense, thx.
I don't know much about Cruz, what is it that makes him that much worse than GOP candidates generally are?
teruterubozu
Member
For one, he's Glenn Beck's favorite candidate. And let's not forget him spearheading the government shutdown. Dude is anti- as it comes.
There isn't much, if any, difference between any of the GOP candidates. Just like there isn't much difference between Sanders and Clinton. Cruz is simply a little louder than Rubio. They agree on about 99% of the issues.
And yes, it's going to be Rubio who gets the GOP nomination. And the visual contrast between him and Clinton is going to be hilarious to watch.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
Ray Patterson: Oh gosh. You know, I'm not much on speeches, but it's so gratifying to... leave you wallowing in the mess you've made. You're screwed, thank you, bye.
Moe: He's right. He ain't much on speeches.
I can think of numerous occasions during this election cycle where this quote would have been appropriate.
Edit: So what is the best case scenario for the GOP? Say Silver and the rest are right, and somehow all of the middling candidates drop out and nearly 100% of their support all manages to leak into Rubio instead of Trump. Does Trump go quietly into the night with 30-35% support? Or are they forced to offer him a cabinet position to make him stick to that pledge he signed? As a rational actor (no pun intended), I see no reason that Trump doesn't go back on his word if he narrowly loses the Repuclican nomination, because he probably has a healthy amount of support from so-called moderates, and he has no vested political interest in the GOP doing well if he's not involved.
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
He wants to massively cut taxes on the rich and pay for it with a 19% VAT. He's going to fuck the poor more extremely than anyone other than Rand Paul and Ben Carson.
Otherwise, pretty similar to the other candidates: Cut back on Social Security, appointing justices to overturn Roe vs. Wade, more indiscriminate bombing in Syria, self-deportation and building a wall, exploding the national debt, mass discrimination against Muslims and LGBT people... But these are pretty standard GOP positions.
Bel Marduk
Banned
Ted Cruz is US senator. Insane and establishment aren't mutually exclusive, unfortunately.
Nealand Liquor
Member
I will laugh my balls off if Trump wins the election.
Being a senator doesn't make you establishment. The GOP establishment is the old guard like the Bushes, Romney, etc. Guys who might be slimy but know when to try to tone it down. Ted Cruz is their literal antithesis. The guy has led the charge to shut down government every time. He's the face of the Tea Party taking over the party. They hate his guts.
They seriously might prefer Trump winning.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Trump clearly has a rock solid floor around 23%, but I am a little skeptical about where his ceiling is. There's a lot of republicans in the "anybody but trump" crowd coming at him from all sides as the Hillary-loving, secular, racist, reality tv joke that he is. I think Carson supporters going to Cruz instead of Trump partly proves that.
If they could make it literally only Trump and Rubio left on the ballot by the time Iowa happens, I'm pretty sure Rubio would win it easily. Unfortunately for Rubio, a lot of people see themselves as the one taking the anti-Trump spot, and it could be a very long time until they drop out.
If they could make it literally only Trump and Rubio left on the ballot by the time Iowa happens, I'm pretty sure Rubio would win it easily. Unfortunately for Rubio, a lot of people see themselves as the one taking the anti-Trump spot, and it could be a very long time until they drop out.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
Silver doesn't recognize that this election isn't a typical election; we are at a special time in history. There is a demographic of people that understand that the world is changing, and they do not like it. This cultural shift, which I'm not smart enough to really delve into, is encouraging the dying, furious gasps of a group of people furiously trying to hold on to a country that isn't coming back.
Thus, you have Trump, Carson, and Cruz at the top of the charts. Note that someone like Walker didn't gain traction; the folks voting for Trump, Carson, and Cruz are economic populists, which explains the quick death that Walker (thankfully) died in the primary season. These folks are culture warriors. They respond to Trump putting Fiorina "in her place," a fear of Planned Parenthood, a fear of Muslims, a fear of Mexicans, a fear of black folks, LGBTQ folks, etc.
Think about how quickly we went from anti-miscegenation laws to gay marriage in this country. A little over forty years - nothing in terms of the scale of human history. If you're a sixty-year-old voter who subscribes to past cultural norms, it must seem like the world has gone mad to you.
That explains both why Trump leads (economic populism + culture warrior rhetoric) and why Silver's underlying assumptions about this primary season are incorrect, IMO.
Thus, you have Trump, Carson, and Cruz at the top of the charts. Note that someone like Walker didn't gain traction; the folks voting for Trump, Carson, and Cruz are economic populists, which explains the quick death that Walker (thankfully) died in the primary season. These folks are culture warriors. They respond to Trump putting Fiorina "in her place," a fear of Planned Parenthood, a fear of Muslims, a fear of Mexicans, a fear of black folks, LGBTQ folks, etc.
Think about how quickly we went from anti-miscegenation laws to gay marriage in this country. A little over forty years - nothing in terms of the scale of human history. If you're a sixty-year-old voter who subscribes to past cultural norms, it must seem like the world has gone mad to you.
That explains both why Trump leads (economic populism + culture warrior rhetoric) and why Silver's underlying assumptions about this primary season are incorrect, IMO.
I also think people feel that wealth inequality, constant warfare, and shutting down government has caused such a negative view that people want radical changes. Firebrands tend to have popular appeal in times of crisis.
gutter_trash
Banned
Typical liberal distortion.
Ben Carson insisted he smashed his mother with a hammer. It was his best friend he stabbed.
Luckily that guy was saved from having to record that fact for posterity by a belt buckle.
gutter_trash
Banned
Is Jeb Bush the Teddy Kennedy of the family who will never become nominee?
plagiarize
Banned
Here's how I see it. Republican voters are sliding towards irrelevance. Like their party, they are becoming more and more extreme, and more and more of the country at large are looking at that extreme and going... fuck no. The voters got in a bunch of candidates who played to the tea party, without getting their hands too dirty with the extreme beliefs... but then those candidates didn't do the crap they told the extremists they were going to do, like repeal Obamacare, etc.
Then along comes Trump.
Instead of subtly playing to the people who feel like they have 'lost' their America to the foreigners, to the Muslims, to the gays, to feminists etc etc, without condemning any of those groups, Trump is just like yeah, I hate all that stuff too. Apart from the gays. But fuck Brown people. And women. You know?
And those voters go... HE SAID IT! HE SAID WHAT WE THINK! WE LOVE HIM!
And the other candidates must have all gone... Oh shit. He said it. No we either have to be outwardly racist too, to play to the extreme base of our voters but definitely taking a position the country disagrees with, or we have to take a position that's a lot safer in the general election and just hope that those voters eventually move away from Trump... because if they don't... we're fucked.
When they made all those gains in the house and senate last year, they must have thought they were in a really great position for 2016's presidential elections.
However, as Republicans often do, they took an easy short term gain, without releasing the mistake they were making long term.
Obama's election in 2012 proved that a Republican can no longer win by just appealing to the white adult male vote. They ran their standard strategy against a President that on paper should have been quite beatable... but what happened was all those groups they normally ignore all voted the other way, and Obama won by a land slide.
The day after the 2012 election they should have started trying to package their core ideals of small government and low taxes etc to appeal to these groups if they wanted any chance in 2016.
Instead they went the other way, sucked in by the passion of the bigots who are being louder than ever because they've realised that public opinion has finally broken against them.
They made gains in 2014 because of incredibly low turn out. Nothing more. Nothing less. And the angry passionate extremists who turned out, have now soured on politicians to the point where they're prepared to vote for anything but a politician.
If a candidate that appeals to them makes it onto the ticket next year... they're fucked basically... and Trump has forced everyone in the primaries to either stand with the extremists or against them.
Nate is banking on the fact that the majority of republican primary voters are not extreme crazies. But add those Carson numbers to Trumps, and you aren't far off 50%. And the Carson voters aren't going to move to Rubio.
Rubio absolutely has a chance... and if they want to have any chance beyond 2016 of staying relevant the Republican party has to hope he wins. But they have to ask themselves, are they willing to give up the fight over gay marriage, or the fight over abortion, or the fight over the affordable care act, and go back to their core beliefs (that absolutely can appeal to people of all walks of life)... because we're moving increasingly towards that being necessary for them.
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