gutter_trash
Banned
1st, Obama is an establishment Democrat who was groomed from 2004-2008 to be a strong candidate.
2nd, the 2008 Economic Collapse in September/October 2008 weighed heavily on Election night
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NBC GOP National poll: Trump leads, Cruz eats Carson, Jeb!: ¯\_()_/¯
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2nd, the 2008 Economic Collapse in September/October 2008 weighed heavily on Election night
The last line of that is particularly batty.
Nate Silver said:
He doesnt use any distinguishing information, so this would've applied equally well to any of the candidates. Even then, that doesnt make any sense because the total probability of ANYONE being nominated would be 2% times the number of candidates, or like 34% at that time. Is there a 66% chance that the GOP nominates no one?
Well, I mean, not no reason.
center for politics said:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/hje2011102702/
Like, I didn't make up the concept of coattails!
Once again you are failing to address my points or provide any counter weight, I can assure you the young vote that turned out for Obama didn't do so because he was an establishment Democrat.
Black Republican
Member
aight, which mod put the (!) in Jeb's name?
wasnt me!
wasnt me!
But it denotes excitement
No way. This is crazy talk.
So is this.
You have to understand something- the media gives Trump, in general, a fawning deference. His fellow GOP candidates do too. These are groups of people who are terrified of him. But his positions have obvious holes. And he can't carry his absolute lack of specific plans through the general election.
I support Bernie Sanders but I'm realistic about Hillary- she is as tough of a politician as they come. She recently went through 11 hours of questioning on Benghazi. She's weathered a dozen major scandals in her political career, perhaps more. Her husband is a serial philanderer, who was outed, publicly, in front of the entire world, and she is still here, running for president.
Hillary Clinton is going to eviscerate Donald Trump during the debates.
Coriolanus
Banned
Which is fair and quite reassuring, but...why wouldn't the same apply to a miraculous Sanders nom?
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Ahm.. you kinda linked the wrong graph, pidg. That one is for when the prez already has control of the haus.
aspiegamer
Member
Cruz is the one with the bump? That feels somewhat inexplicable. I'd have bet good money Rubio was going to get that bounce. We're down to 6! And by 6 that means 4. And wow they're all terrifying.
Jeb! is in a more and more precarious situation. He's been limping along in the polls for months now, but he has like $200M++ behind him last we really heard (mostly SuperPAC). Not sure if there's ever been a candidate with such a poor ratio of support vs budget. In 2012 candidates went limping back to billionaire supporters over and over again to keep campaigns running but those were in the $5-20M range of grabs.
Fun story! Jeb! apparently just hired a speaking coach a month ago, after the third debate. What? No one in his entire campaign/his friends/the money people ever told him before then that maybe he should invest there?
Jeb! is in a more and more precarious situation. He's been limping along in the polls for months now, but he has like $200M++ behind him last we really heard (mostly SuperPAC). Not sure if there's ever been a candidate with such a poor ratio of support vs budget. In 2012 candidates went limping back to billionaire supporters over and over again to keep campaigns running but those were in the $5-20M range of grabs.
Fun story! Jeb! apparently just hired a speaking coach a month ago, after the third debate. What? No one in his entire campaign/his friends/the money people ever told him before then that maybe he should invest there?
There was a book from a few years ago that did a nice job tracking the GOP's purging of moderate and progressive voices over time. Rule and Ruin: The Downfall of Moderation and the Destruction of the Republican Party, From Eisenhower to the Tea Party by Geoffrey Kabaservice. It's sad how far the party has drifted away from its roots and how looking back it's really today's conservatives that are RINOs..
It was always going to be Cruz and Trump that benefited the most from Carson's decline.
googleplex
Member
Yes she is. I actually want Ben Carson gets the nomination just so I can see the massive smack down in the debates.
Goddamn it, I posted bad. That's what I get for taking two weeks off.
Okay, never mind, who even knows if there will be coattails, not me.
Basileus777
Member
Silver isn't using any models here (it's too early), he's just engaging in punditry, which is why he's been wrong about Trump at every turn. Nate is great with numbers, not so much at being a talking head. There's little reason to pay attention to Nate Silver this early in the race.
Cruz is the only elected candidate running that can actually appeal to the Trump/Carson supporters wanting outsiders. Cruz's entire political persona is built off opposing the establishment from the inside.
It's why people expecting Rubio to randomly jump once Trump/Carson flamed out made zero sense to me. He "is" the establishment at this point. Every other candidate flamed out.
The biggest issue isn't the money deciding who wins, but that such large sums of money almost assuredly puts politicians in those corps' pocket when it comes time for some new anti-consumer/anti-environment/pro-business legislation.
Though having things like Kochs giving billions to certain politicians to make them beat Democrat candidates is another ball of wax. It just doesn't apply as well in a primary of Republican vs Republican. It will apply in the "whoever wins vs Hillary" battle.
perfectchaos007
Member
Trump is just a fad. His numbers will go down soon I'm sure of it*
*says everyone every month since July 2015
*says everyone every month since July 2015
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
They are fragile. They live in their own version of reality. They don't want their version of reality challenged- they want to impose their version of reality. They can't do this by just going off the cuff, like Trump. The only candidate that seems like he's being groomed to deal with this properly is Rubio. He's getting the masterclass treatment, at whatever think tank that happens at. He looks like he'll be able to navigate a debate with Clinton and still be effective promoting the ideology while not looking like a fool. That takes a ton of training. He's showing it in the debates- the establishment has clearly chosen Rubio. It's just a matter of time.
Trump would get eaten alive. Cruz might do ok, but he creeps people out.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
His position is completely reasonable, which is that the RNC has a lot more power than people seem to realize given that 0 actual primaries have occurred.
People don't like Nate Silver anymore because Nate Silver said that the Democrats could theoretically lose the General because the economy still actually sucks and Obama didn't really fix it.
Every turn? There have been zero turns so far. We're still in the long void before people start voting. Nothing has happened, and Trump basically sits where he was several months ago.
Having a historical perspective is valuable and can at least inform rough likelihoods. His arguments that...
1) Polls mean very little months before primary voting.
2) It is extraordinarily rare for somebody outside a party to win its nomination.
3) It is extraordinarily rare for somebody with 0.0 political experience to win a major party's nomination.
4) Endorsements of sitting politicians in a party are one of the best predictors for eventual success, and Trump has none.
... are all sound, and should give some idea of what Trump's actual position is. He has no political experience, isn't a real member of the party, has no endorsements or support from the party, and his position in the polls and complete lack of upward movement despite the tightening field should all give some perspective.
DragonSworne
Banned
So that makes him delusional on 3 counts now.
How anyone can think Trump would beat Clinton in a debate is beyond my comprehension. Trump is considered, by pretty much everyone outside of his hardcore supporters, to have done poorly in every single debate thus far (and this is coming from a Dem would is rooting for Trump to be their nominee). He is still on top because his core audience just doesn't care about substance as much as rhetoric. He can say anything and have his 25% still follow him. That is simply not the case in the general election especially in a 2 hour 1v1 debate scenario where instead of 11 minutes of total Trump vagueness, the public is exposed to 1 hour of Trump saying literally nothing and being pressed by the moderator and Hillary.
And that is just in relation to white independents. Trump has already written off any chance of winning minorities and is on track to lose the Hispanic vote by historic margins if he is the nominee which further makes some of the claims about Trump winning New Mexico ludicrous. The GOP simply cannot win enough of the white vote while losing the Hispanic vote by 80% to win in any of the swing states with any sizeable Hispanic population.
While I think Silver has devolved from his prior standing as a purely aggregate poll guy to a more traditional politico reporter, he is spot on with his tweet about Trump's support being 25% of a minority of Republican voters. His dynamics in the primary are completely different to his dynamics in the general and he has already burned all of the bridges he needs to win in a general.
And that is just in relation to white independents. Trump has already written off any chance of winning minorities and is on track to lose the Hispanic vote by historic margins if he is the nominee which further makes some of the claims about Trump winning New Mexico ludicrous. The GOP simply cannot win enough of the white vote while losing the Hispanic vote by 80% to win in any of the swing states with any sizeable Hispanic population.
While I think Silver has devolved from his prior standing as a purely aggregate poll guy to a more traditional politico reporter, he is spot on with his tweet about Trump's support being 25% of a minority of Republican voters. His dynamics in the primary are completely different to his dynamics in the general and he has already burned all of the bridges he needs to win in a general.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
He hasn't been shy at all about saying there's really no statistical models of relevance at this stage because 0 votes have been cast. His point is completely reasonable - Trump is sitting where he was sitting 2 months ago, which means nothing because nothing of actual relevance has occurred.
DragonSworne
Banned
At this point in the time the likely nominee was leading the polls. I don't see how he can keep claiming Trump is still in the same position as he was 2 months ago. Leading the polls and being this close to the the primaries absolutely matters.
Weren't you just arguing earlier that Democrats could lose?
QuiteWhittle
Member
Do you have a link to that article?
I found articles on his website that imply the opposite, though from a different writer.
Nate used to be the guy who said, pretty directly, that all that mattered was statistical models, and all the pundits saying that the statistical models were wrong were just blowing smoke.
I still like him, but I definitely think he's taken a weird turn here towards becoming a pundit himself. If there's no data, then why would he have such strong opinions about what's going to happen?
DragonSworne
Banned
Hillay wins against any other Republican candidate, just not against Trump.
Harry Enten is the main political topic writer. Nate's views mostly come from the roundtable discussions, which are about weekly.
He still says that, but he also acknowledges when you're outside the scope of models. Primaries are messy with poor data at any point. He's pretty humble about models and polls, and is open that any numbers right now are really just historically-informed guesses rather than models. The buy-sell-hold discussions are pretty enlightening on how he views things.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
He doesn't though. He's just pointing out that Trump's support in primary races isn't actually meaningful without any votes cast and that the overall picture is mostly stagnant. People just *really* want Trump leading in November to be meaningful.
POWERSPHERE
Banned
Its amazing. Mindblowing. Unfathomable. And a great peek into the mind of Republican voters.
Veritigo_X
Member
Huma works better as her Sun and Stars.
The dragons are Bill, Barack and Diamond Joe.
Trump is so thin-skinned and just freaks out at even at the hint of criticism I can't imagine him being able to handle the pressure of a national campaign without going ballistic. I mean he just went off about the Kasich campaign's plans to launch negative ads against him in New Hampshire. He raged on Twitter about it like a tween girl unable to get One Direction tickets and even sicced his lawyer on the super PAC and the ads haven't even aired yet.
http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-tweetstorm-lawsuit-john-kasich-super-pac-2015-11
True, her lesbian lover Huma probably is better there.
brb rejigging the metaphor.
EDIT: of course this exists
Hyperactivity
Banned
Cruzisn't really stupid
He's just really slimey
He's just really slimey
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
Yeah, he has no capacity to do the hard work. He's soft. A whiner who just wants to be loved.
Rubio is the one putting in that work.
Veritigo_X
Member
True, her lesbian lover Huma probably is better there.
brb rejigging the metaphor.
EDIT: of course this exists
lmao. I was worried no one would get it since you don't hear that rumor outside of FreeRepublic or similar sites.
Somehow Americans would see this as Hillary beating on a calm, sensitive man and throw him sympathy support.
Canadian here: Who does AmericaGAF want to win the Republican candidacy? I only know about Jeb, Carson, Trump and Rand... and from those, Jeb seems the most sane. I ask because the Democrats won't win forever (though a case can be made for this notion of the GOP never winning again until they reform) , and when they do lose, you want the alternative to be as sane as possible. Like its not even a question about being a good leader with the GOP, its come down to whose the least radical.
Basileus777
Member
I want Trump because he's the least electable and will be the most damaging to down ticket races. The GOP controls Congress and most of the state governments, they are hardly in a position where they aren't winning anything. In fact this election is so important because a Republican win would give them control over the entire government and the ability to shape the supreme court for another decade.
If a Republican has to win there's an arguable opinion that Trump might actually be the best. He could be as destructive a leader to the Republicans as the Democrats. The rest are guaranteed to sign whatever bullshit a GOP congress spits on their desk.
GeordieMark
Member
I can't help thinking of that Simpsons episode when Homer runs for the sanitation commissioners job.
revolverjgw
Member
Your original title was too low energy
Trump is exactly who the democrats want to see win the primary. His unfavorability ratings amongst Latinos combined with the normal demographic challenges faced by republicans means election night won't be very stressful.
Of course Trump is still very unlikely to win the nomination. I'm still having trouble understanding why people think the election is any time soon, or even why they think the months we have before Iowa aren't infinitely more important than the 6 months prior, but here we are. It's like all the lessons of the past are thrown away and once again ideology instead of reason is allowed to steer where someone thinks the race is going.
In the end, if by some miracle Trump is the candidate the sting of being wrong about that will fade very quickly given the situation described in my first paragraph.
Of course Trump is still very unlikely to win the nomination. I'm still having trouble understanding why people think the election is any time soon, or even why they think the months we have before Iowa aren't infinitely more important than the 6 months prior, but here we are. It's like all the lessons of the past are thrown away and once again ideology instead of reason is allowed to steer where someone thinks the race is going.
In the end, if by some miracle Trump is the candidate the sting of being wrong about that will fade very quickly given the situation described in my first paragraph.
I can understand the sentiment of being too early. Heck in our election our socialist party (NDP) went from like 40% of the voter base to 18%.... granted the situation is a bit different here. We backed our centrist party as it had a higher chance to defeat the Conservative party, and we were frankly tired of the nine-year Harper regime.
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