my bad, I looked wrong. 26 -> 28 gotcha.
the guy clearly appeals to a decent group of people. It'll be interesting to see if they're outliers or if he'll gain additional support as people drop out.
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NBC GOP National poll: Trump leads, Cruz eats Carson, Jeb!: ¯\_()_/¯
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my bad, I looked wrong. 26 -> 28 gotcha.
the guy clearly appeals to a decent group of people. It'll be interesting to see if they're outliers or if he'll gain additional support as people drop out.
Personally I think Trump is going to say something that even the crazies can't ignore which will lose him the nomination
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
It's kinda funny how we all bitch about Super PAC's running the elections and how we don't have any power.
And the person with the largest sum of money has been DOA.
And the person with the largest sum of money has been DOA.
Direct pandering to the GOP base of course.
If anything was going to do it, it would be him going full Hitler.
Yea I thought so to but clearly he's still preaching to his own choir. My guess is he'll change his tone on immigration or something along those lines
Funny how you make a claim about the people that have a differing opinion from your own are doing so without data or logic while you are making claims without data or logic.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Yeah. I mean, there was a lot of fretting from liberals for a whole now about how SuperPACs would ruin democracy but Mitt Romney lost and Jeb Bush is a complete flop.
Veritigo_X
Member
Here's some data from a recent poll. There might be a more recent one, but I posted this a couple days ago in another thread.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/int...x-poll-gop-nomination-race-coming-into-focus/
Rubio gets a bump after Carson drops out, but Trump gets an even bigger bump.
I don't think they are.
Is Cruz really worse than Carson, though? I mean, he's more smarmy, for sure, but is he really more evil? They both seem equally evil, just with different mannerisms. Cruz is a far-smarter politician. I guess he's more dangerous, but not more evil, to me. It does seem like Cruz could win the nomination, or get a VP spot. First libertarian to represent the GOP in the general election?
None of these candidates can win a general election, without a body being found in Hillary's trunk, or something of that magnitude.
None of these candidates can win a general election, without a body being found in Hillary's trunk, or something of that magnitude.
Wolfgunblood Garopa
Member
I think we'll continue to see that there isn't a dealbreaker for the Post-Tea Party Republican base, which the right's relentless and aggressive salesmanship of their ideology over the years has turned into a political cult. They are hateful above all else and have no sense of irony or judgement of character. Trump going full Hitler is not a problem.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Carson is terrifying because he's an idiot. Cruz is terrifying because he's not. Carson says evil things, but sounds like he doesn't know what he's talking about. Cruz says evil things and knows exactly what he's trying to say.
I agree with that. They both share 95% of the same reprehensible positions, though.
DragonSworne
Banned
Trump crushes Hilary in a general election, mark my words.
Bernie wins against Trump.
Yellowtail
Member
DR2K
Banned
Haha.
It's always seemed fairly obvious to me that Stage 4 is where Trump ultimately gets taken down as the frontrunner. As all the Jeb!s and Fiorinas and Christies and Huckabees and so on begin to drop out, the bulk of their supporters are much more likely to glomp onto someone like Cruz or Rubio than Trump. Trump would likely get a big batch of Carson's voters, though, since he's the other wild card nutjob in the mix (relatively speaking), so it only stands to reason that his supporters are similarly wacky.
Unless, of course, Trump is already so far and away the presumptive nominee by then that he can't be caught. But his polling numbers would have to be like double where they are right now (and where they have been throughout this entire process to date) for that scenario to be plausible. Not impossible, but seems pretty unlikely.
It'll be hard to win in the general election, when you lose 90% of 13% of the population (blacks) and 80% of 17% of the population (Hispanics). Which swing states is Trump going to win over Hillary, or which blue states is he going to take back?
Sorry, I don't see it. It looks as though Trump will get the nomination at this point, but what's his realistic path to the presidency?
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
...how can I mark your words when neither of what you said can happen in a single reality together.
If Trump crushes Hilary then Bernie doesn't win the primary, meaning he can't win against Trump.
QuiteWhittle
Member
You know what, I will. Bookmarking every post(usually by a Bernie supporter) I see from now on claiming that Clinton will lose to Trump.
I'll delete them if Clinton vs Trump doesn't happen.
We just started Stage 2, actually. Stage 3 doesn't start until February.
I still don't think there's anything wrong with his argument. People are making too much of polls months before the first primaries, while Nate is using more points of evidence and historical precedence. Nothing about his poll numbers indicates that he is going to win a substantial number of primaries.
You're using demographics to argue against Bernie supporters, and that shit don't fly. I've donated to his campaign, but people need to be realistic about how turbulent both the nomination and (unlikely) general election will be for his campaign.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
I mean, money in politics is still a major issue, but honestly it's way more harmful on the legislator side of things than the President Election due to the simple fact of voter turnout.
If people actually voted money wouldn't be as much of an issue.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Yeah, I agree. Bought presidents aren't the problem, it's bought congressman.
Davey Cakes
Member
I like living in a dream world where Bernie is actually able to rally the younger generations to produce the highest voter turnout ever, slaughtering any other candidate in the popular vote purely due to a broader range of the USA's population being represented.
I mean, the Electoral College is a different story, but still...
A man can dream.
I mean, the Electoral College is a different story, but still...
A man can dream.
DragonSworne
Banned
Trump gets Virginia, Florida, New Mexico, Colordo, Neveda, PA, Ohio and New Hampshire against Hillary.
Hugh upset.
Bernie gets PA, Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia against Trump.
I don't have a electoral count in front of me so I don't know if that puts Bernie in the lead.
Yellowtail
Member
I think McGovern tried this.
Okay, as someone who knows fuck all about politics, is trump really going to get the nomination? He's been killing it in the polls for months now, but I've read that doesn't really matter in regards to getting the nomination? I don't know, but I'm fascinated by this 2016 race.
Also, what the hell has Cruz done to gain so much?
Also, what the hell has Cruz done to gain so much?
QuiteWhittle
Member
How does Trump win New Mexico with his historically low favorability with Hispanic voters?
He has 25% support of 25% of the population. That's enough to win, right?
Even if young people voted as much as older that is impossible. Hillary has the over 30 vote on lockdown, a landslide level of support among them in the Democratic primary electorate. And there is far far far more of them than the 18-29 age group.
That is also ignoring Hillary consistently leads Bernie among 18-29 women. Having the older, the minority, and the female vote on lockdown can't be mitigated by young voters even at an astronomical level of turnout. The demographic numbers just don't exist.
DragonSworne
Banned
If Trump doesn't win Iowa I can see his campaign hitting a rough spot. It all depends on how he reacts to his invidentable lose. He's built himself up as a winner, so his supports may leave him at the first since of failure.
Brawly Likes to Brawl
Member
In my personal opinion, being aware that the shit you're saying is harmful and ridiculous just so you can be in good company with earnest idiots doesn't make you any less stupid.
Yeah, looking over Silver's Twitter it's easy to go "lol dat salt" and think he is in denial, but if you actually read the article you'll see that Silver is almost certainly right about Trump. His polling numbers at this point are largely meaningless, as history has shown.
REMINDER: Even polls taken a single week before a state's primary have an average error of being ten % off. 10%! Right now, we are ten times as far away as that.
Nate's argument is that "political time is not linear", and everything matters more and more as we get closer to the actual elections. Polls months in advance don't really indicate much. They can inform, but there are a lot of other factors to consider.
LOL I'm a Bernie supporter too, but I'm realistic. He's going to have a hard time beating Hillary in the primary. She's the heir-apparent. That doesn't mean that Sanders doesn't have good contributions to make in this election, because he's pulling Hillary left which is awesome.
Sanders has a similar demographic problem in the primary that Trump does in the general. Worse, even. But that's a bit off-topic.
Trump is not taking those states over Hillary. He's definitely not taking PA or Ohio, which are strong labor union states. New Mexico and Colorado have too many Hispanic voters (NM 40%, Colorado 20%!). Nevada, same deal, over 25% Latino. Virginia has become increasingly liberal because Northern VA is a highly-educated paradise of federal workers.
Maybe Trump takes Florida. Maybe. But he loses the Hispanic vote there despite many older Cuban conservatives.
I agree, we've seen it time and time again where a candidate comes out of nowhere and even does well in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries but completely bombs after that. If Trump wins Iowa I would imagine you might even get more moderates republicans to vote in the primaries to nominate to vote against him
Byakuya769
Member
Embrace your Trump future, Republicans.
A Human Becoming
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All the people hating on Nate Silver take the pre-Iowa polls too seriously and don't recognize that probability can change with new information.
People need to remember that Santorum won Iowa last time. Santorum! He's basically Greg Stillson.
DragonSworne
Banned
I'm betting that Trump will poll overwhelmingly more favorably with whites than Clinton does. That's why states like Colorado, PA, and Ohio will go to Trump vs Clinton.
Trump's support is fairly shallow at the moment. There's no indication that his current support translate to an overwhelming advantage relative to other democratic candidates, or why Clinton would do measurably worse with Whites than Sanders. You really think Sanders' current key demographic of White Liberals is really a bunch of latent Trump voters?
They aren't doing it to be "in good company" with idiots. They are doing it to profit from idiots.
That makes them terrible people, not stupid.
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