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May 2010 NPD Article (Gamasutra)

J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Gamasutra posted my comments on the NPD Group data released last week. The article is here:
Direct link to Gamasutra story about May 2010 NPD data.
Things of interest:
  • Some comments on why we're down year-over-year in terms of revenue, from both the hardware and software segments.
  • Software picture is interesting to me, as it now looks like a three-way split among Xbox 360, Wii, PS3 (measured in terms of revenue).
  • Tie ratios and LTD software unit sales for the three current-generation consoles. Wii appears to be breaking 200 million right now.
  • At least two points on software chart: where the 100K line falls and Prince of Persia < 100K total across all versions.
  • Shout out to JoshuaJSlone. Thanks, man.

An image from the article:
ltd-sw-sales-current-gen-consoles.png


An UNUSED image left on the cutting room floor.
sg0gll.png


After spending the weekend on this, my family will kill me if I don't spend a couple of days with them. I may not be back here immediately, but I'm sending the link to my editors.

As always, I'm up for corrections, comments, etc. Please don't take a lack of immediate response personally -- I may simply not be here. My overlordseditors will probably be watching the thread, so changes may happen without a direct response from me.

I felt like this was a hard article to write. Go easy. I'm very, very tired right now. :|

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
2007: Oct Nov Dec
2008: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010: Jan Feb Mar Apr
 
jvm said:
[*]At least two points on software chart: where the 100K line falls and Prince of Persia < 100K total across all versions.
Click to expand...
Bravo Ubisoft. You've managed to take one of your absolute strongest franchises and make it completely irrelevant.

Thanks for the information like always jvm.
 
Empty said:
I hope the Forgotten Sands bomba doesn't kill any chances of a sequel to POP2008.
Click to expand...
Should hopefully have the opposite effect, since PoP 2008 sold, like, what, 480k or something? Waay better than Forgotten Sands.
 
Well hopefully the Split/Second does keep on selling and can get greater than those 100,000 units. I thought Blur would have had a much bigger amount of units sold, it was advertised like crazy, lol.

Just how much were people expected Prince of Persia to do, although the game, I guess isnt directly tied to the the movie itself, the movie also didnt seem to sell that well in the US, is the series just aging and not popular among people anymore?

By the beginning of 2010, both the Nintendo Wii and the Sony PS3 had gotten price drops of about 20% and 25%, respectively. This jibes well with the 20% decline in total hardware revenue for the first five months of the year, but the underlying dynamics of the revenue picture are more complicated. It would appear that PS3 sales have increased so much in the first five months of 2010 that the system has generated roughly the same amount of revenue, despite the price cut.
Click to expand...

Also, I dont understand, its from page 2, what is it being compared too?
 
Just a note on your chart on page 4 you have Pokemon Soul Silver listed as a Wii game when it should be listed as a DS game, and you have the publisher listed as Ubisoft.
 
Dedication Through Light said:
Also, I dont understand, its from page 2, what is it being compared too?
Click to expand...
(number of consoles sold before price cut)x(price before price cut)=(number of consoles sold after price cut)x(price after price cut)
 
You can see why Microsoft is so interested in grabbing some expanded audience marketshare. They need to do something. They've been at the hardcore gamer ceiling for three years now.
 
Shin Johnpv said:
Just a note on your chart on page 4 you have Pokemon Soul Silver listed as a Wii game when it should be listed as a DS game, and you have the publisher listed as Ubisoft.
Click to expand...
Well, darn. I'll fix that. Thanks!
 
Nirolak said:
Bravo Ubisoft. You've managed to take one of your absolute strongest franchises and make it completely irrelevant.

Thanks for the information like always jvm.
Click to expand...

I thought Prince of Persia was always a mediocre selling franchise, even with the trilogy last gen.
 
Prince of Persia did pretty awful. I don't really know what to say. I suppose its fortunes were tied to a movie which didn't catch on.

I really thought that this movie + combination thing was going to be a really big deal, but I guess it all hinged much more on the movies' success than I thought.
 
Chris1964 said:
(number of consoles sold before price cut)x(price before price cut)=(number of consoles sold after price cut)x(price after price cut)
Click to expand...

Wow, I didn't realize that last year's sales were so poor until after I read this post and looked into it.
 
Dedication Through Light said:
Well hopefully the Split/Second does keep on selling and can get greater than those 100,000 units. I thought Blur would have had a much bigger amount of units sold, it was advertised like crazy, lol.

Just how much were people expected Prince of Persia to do, although the game, I guess isnt directly tied to the the movie itself, the movie also didnt seem to sell that well in the US, is the series just aging and not popular among people anymore?



Also, I dont understand, its from page 2, what is it being compared too?
Click to expand...

What he is explaining is that because the revenue is roughly the same, but there was a price cut, more units must have been sold.

Sell 10 units at $50 = $500 revenue

If there is a price cut to $25, you must sell 20 units at $25 to equal that same revenue of $500.

This is great for Sony because with the price cut they didn't see any decline in revenue while being able to increase their install base (higher install base means more games sold, which means more royalties in Sony's pocket).
 
No Monster Hunter Tri numbers, kinda expected, but I was hoping for something. :'(

Nice article as always, completely forgot about Conviction failing to return on it's second month.
 
Sho_Nuff82 said:
I thought Prince of Persia was always a mediocre selling franchise, even with the trilogy last gen.
Click to expand...
The trilogy was what killed it. It should have just been two games with more thought put into the second game.
 
BMF said:
The trilogy was what killed it. It should have just been two games with more thought put into the second game.
Click to expand...

That and the fact that they went "mature" with the second one, which was so poorly done it made the game a complete joke.

I wonder when companies will just finally stop trying to make movie games.
 
Microsoft had a great head start but now they seems to be stuck while their competition is improoving everyday.
 
The Wii continues to see YoY hardware declines, while the PS3 and 360 (particularly PS3) have gone up significantly year after year.

If this means that neither system has peaked yet in the US (which is possible), then the very long generation seems highly plausible.

In turn, the Wii looks like it will indeed have a far shorter lifespan. This may seem obvious now, but a year or two ago it wasn't: many people couldn't fathom why Nintendo would kill an enormous profitable product like the Wii while Sony and Microsoft trundled on with far less succesful products like the PS3 and 360. Now, it appears increasingly likely that this is precisely what's going to happen.
 
Tmac said:
Microsoft had a great head start but now they seems to be stuck while their competition is improoving everyday.
Click to expand...

I bring this up occasionally, but let's remember the previous generation. For all the troubles they have had, the Xbox 360 is a remarkable achievement.
 
Opiate said:
The Wii continues to see YoY hardware declines, while the PS3 and 360 (particularly PS3) have gone up significantly year after year.

If this means that neither system has peaked yet in the US (which is possible), then the very long generation seems highly plausible.

In turn, the Wii looks like it will indeed have a far shorter lifespan. This may seem obvious now, but a year or two ago it wasn't: many people couldn't fathom why Nintendo would kill an enormous profitable product like the Wii while Sony and Microsoft trundled on with far less succesful products like the PS3 and 360. Now, it appears increasingly likely that this is precisely what's going to happen.
Click to expand...
The PS3/360 will get cut short whenever Nintendo releases the Wii's successor. Nothing has changed. The Wii is still selling nearly as much as both consoles combined.
 
jvm, please accept this pat on the back as a token of your awesomeness.

Gamasutra editors, give this man a raise! :D

Great as always jvm.

AlphaTwo00 said:
Can I declare racing dead? ModNations at 18, below 100K, Split/Second and Blur fairing worse...

yikes...
Click to expand...

I think all three of those titles would have fared much better at $40. The $60 arcade racing game, sans Gran Turismo/Forza and the occasional Burnout/NFS, is pretty much dead.
 
Opiate said:
The Wii continues to see YoY hardware declines, while the PS3 and 360 (particularly PS3) have gone up significantly year after year.

If this means that neither system has peaked yet in the US (which is possible), then the very long generation seems highly plausible.

In turn, the Wii looks like it will indeed have a far shorter lifespan. This may seem obvious now, but a year or two ago it wasn't: many people couldn't fathom why Nintendo would kill an enormous profitable product like the Wii while Sony and Microsoft trundled on with far less succesful products like the PS3 and 360. Now, it appears increasingly likely that this is precisely what's going to happen.
Click to expand...

Yes - but we are alrady 5 years in this generation though. Nintnedo probably disrupt the market again and bring their next home console before sony and ms, with way better 3rd party support than the wii ever had.
 
Tmac said:
Microsoft had a great head start but now they seems to be stuck while their competition is improoving everyday.
Click to expand...

The article seems to indicate that the 360 is holding steady while the Wii is slowing and the PS3 is increasing in pace (for software sales).

Even with that being true,

Around May 2009, about the same number of units of Wii software had been sold as Xbox 360 units, despite the latter platform having had an additional year on the market. Now in May 2010 the Wii appears to have a lead of around 17 million units. During the same period, the PlayStation 3 has fallen further behind both platforms.
Click to expand...

Opiate raises an interesting point, especially as the generation stretches into 2011 and 2012 - is there a time where the "streams cross" for monthly hardware sales given current trends? There is zero chance for either console to catch Nintendo, but looking at the software situation, it doesn't look like either really has to in order to be a more viable platform for software releases. People are spending more money on PS3 and 360 games than Wii games.

How long will price drops continue to improve YoY PS3/360 sales? Will Wii sales ever drop to the point of the other consoles in the next two years? Would Nintendo even care at that point? Will it even matter if Nintendo keeps getting a massive Christmas boost for being a "must have" item for families?
 
Opus Angelorum said:
I bring this up occasionally, but let's remember the previous generation. For all the troubles they have had, the Xbox 360 is a remarkable achievement.
Click to expand...

No doubt. They are in the fifth year of the console (longer than the 360 lasted), they had a one-year head start, and they STILL have sold twice as much software LTD in N/A than PS3?

A 1600 point MS card is the best selling console accessory three months in a row?

Nobody ever would have predicted this at the beginning of the generation.
 
chubigans said:
jvm, please accept this pat on the back as a token of your awesomeness.

Gamasutra editors, give this man a raise! :D

Great as always jvm.



I think all three of those titles would have fared much better at $40. The $60 arcade racing game, sans Gran Turismo/Forza and the occasional Burnout/NFS, is pretty much dead.
Click to expand...
But I'd challenge that at least in Blur and ModNation's case, that they have just as much, if not more content and depth than those other games.

Either it has to do with branding/marketing, or that racing as a whole just can't take on any newcomers anymore.
 
I think it is alarmingly evident that the bloody market that birthed the Wii and DS has become 2 markets, both of which are very valid targets for many games. The monstrous question that remains is whether the size of both markets combined can be maintained as we move into the next generation, and if it can all grow, or if some users will be lost.
 
AlphaTwo00 said:
Can I declare racing dead? ModNations at 18, below 100K, Split/Second and Blur fairing worse...

yikes...
Click to expand...

Dead till november? sure. That's a reasonable assumption to make from the data present.
 
Beer Monkey said:
No doubt. They are in the fifth year of the console (longer than the 360 lasted), they had a one-year head start, and they STILL have sold twice as much software LTD in N/A than PS3?

A 1600 point MS card is the best selling console accessory three months in a row?

Nobody ever would have predicted this at the beginning of the generation.
Click to expand...
Actually that was obvious as soon as the $599 price point was announced.
 
Opiate said:
The Wii continues to see YoY hardware declines, while the PS3 and 360 (particularly PS3) have gone up significantly year after year.

If this means that neither system has peaked yet in the US (which is possible), then the very long generation seems highly plausible.

In turn, the Wii looks like it will indeed have a far shorter lifespan. This may seem obvious now, but a year or two ago it wasn't: many people couldn't fathom why Nintendo would kill an enormous profitable product like the Wii while Sony and Microsoft trundled on with far less succesful products like the PS3 and 360. Now, it appears increasingly likely that this is precisely what's going to happen.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't accept this logic (i.e. the Wii having a shorter lifespan because of declining sales) just yet, but as of late I'm beginning to think that Nintendo might be first on the market with its next home console because 1) there isn't anything shocking about releasing a successor 5-6 years into the life of the system, and 2) Nintendo might want to play the "try and catch up" card like they did with the 3DS if Microsoft and Sony are indeed trying to stretch the lifecycles of their consoles.

I think you're overstating the Wii's decline for now though. We'll have to see how sales evolve by the end of the year and Nintendo's plans for potential key titles like Wii Relax. You said that the Wii "will indeed have a far shorter lifespan", but I'm not sure. Shorter than what we would have expected a year ago? Yes, that is plausible, but the way you phrase your argument makes it sound like the Wii's decline is so steep that it will soon track well below its competitors. It's still tracking higher so far, at least in terms of hardware sales. Software is a bit mix, but it's still nothing to scoff at in terms of sheer volume. It's always really hard to make any bet with Nintendo, considering their first-party offerings are the primary drivers of sales and they are so secretive about them. Plus, many of them look like wildcards, or at least are new, unproven concepts whose sales potential people on GAF and observers in general — and, arguably, even Nintendo at times — are very poor at evaluating. We've been taken aback by the lasting power of titles like Wii Fit, yet at the same time, games like Animal Crossing and Wii music were huge disappointment. Unsurprisingly, the sales trends for the Wii have been largely dependent on whether Nintendo's big titles are able to drive momentum or not.

Basically, we don't know much about the Wii's future beyond the next 6 months. One interesting development is the type and quantity of games Nintendo is trying to line up for the end of the year. For the past few years, Nintendo has been relying on 2 or 3 titles that focused heavily on multiplayer/social gaming and/or motion controls. This year, instead, we'll get a number of new entries to classic franchises (Kirby, DKC, Goldeneye — yes, I know, it's Activision) along with one big third party title: Epic Mickey. We don't know how that will work out for Nintendo, because it's not the typical line-up we'd been used to for the Wii. It will be interesting to watch how/if this slew of games can drive momentum.
 
Tmac said:
Microsoft had a great head start but now they seems to be stuck while their competition is improoving everyday.
Click to expand...

They are coming off the best start of the year they have ever had HW wise 5 years in and holding pretty steady SW wise (actually at the highest attach rate they have ever had) so no I don't think so. If anything the Wii has seen real SW declines more than anything else.

Originally Posted by Anita Frazier:
Overall

"The 360 platform, across hardware, software, and accessories, contributed the greatest share of revenue to industry sales for the month, and year-to-date."
Click to expand...

This would also suggest otherwise as well.

Opiate said:
The Wii continues to see YoY hardware declines, while the PS3 and 360 (particularly PS3) have gone up significantly year after year.

If this means that neither system has peaked yet in the US (which is possible), then the very long generation seems highly plausible.

In turn, the Wii looks like it will indeed have a far shorter lifespan. This may seem obvious now, but a year or two ago it wasn't: many people couldn't fathom why Nintendo would kill an enormous profitable product like the Wii while Sony and Microsoft trundled on with far less succesful products like the PS3 and 360. Now, it appears increasingly likely that this is precisely what's going to happen.
Click to expand...

Actually looking at Nintendo's SW lineup ahead this year and next I don't see that happening at all. The Wii will be right back up into the clouds this fall as well. Some growing pains, but that is about it really. Let's also not forget the Wii has seen YoY declines before. From March 08 to Nov 08 compared to the same period in 09 it saw YoY declines every month. Some being quite large as well. I'm not sure we can really talk about peaking just yet and comparing it to the PS3 after it's best bet with $100 cut and slim after a real tough start to 09 doesn't do it justice either. Perhaps after Sept some real comparisons can be made in that department. Still it's killing it in the HW department, but SW is something to watch down the road.

Sho_Nuff82 said:
current-gen-sw-marketshare-2010.png


This covers nearly the first half of the year. The 360 might actually creep ahead for 2010 if June is a strong month thanks to the new hardware.
Click to expand...

Yes, let's compare this chart to the next 5 months of the year to see what happens. June-Oct. Then again with Nov-Dec. Then overall.

The one year SW sales difference between the Wii and PS3 is 33 million. Wii and 360 18 million. 360 and PS3 15 million. This makes for a much different chart and one where the holidays totally matter.
 
Opiate said:
The Wii continues to see YoY hardware declines, while the PS3 and 360 (particularly PS3) have gone up significantly year after year.

If this means that neither system has peaked yet in the US (which is possible), then the very long generation seems highly plausible.

In turn, the Wii looks like it will indeed have a far shorter lifespan. This may seem obvious now, but a year or two ago it wasn't: many people couldn't fathom why Nintendo would kill an enormous profitable product like the Wii while Sony and Microsoft trundled on with far less succesful products like the PS3 and 360. Now, it appears increasingly likely that this is precisely what's going to happen.
Click to expand...


This is an extreme exaggeration. The Wii is still moving a ton of software, and moving as much hardware as nearly both the others combined. There is most certainly something to be said for momentum and trending, but don't let it blot out the reality of the situation. Even at this pace in two years the Wii wouldn't be worth killing off as it would be selling at about the amount of hardware the PS3 is. And this is all of course assuming that trends wont waver at ALL. A silly notion to even consider with the way things have swung around from the start of this gen until now.

Neither of the two consoles are matching the software sales nor hardware sales of the Wii at the moment. Neither, to talk about killing the Wii console simply because the other two have just recently started to exceed the Wii sales when they COMBINE their totals is very very silly. As is attempting to predict the expected lifespan of the console just as soon as we get the first little bit of proof that its sales potential does indeed have a crescendo.
 
Tmac said:
Microsoft had a great head start but now they seems to be stuck while their competition is improoving everyday.
Click to expand...

Um ...

The bottom line on 2010 hardware: The Wii price cut and subsequent lower sales during the January to May period has cut revenue significantly while the PS3 has not made up for the long term erosion of PS2 and PSP unit sales and revenue. Microsoft has maintained modest growth in unit sales, and is least to blame for falling hardware revenue.
Click to expand...
 
I am not a fan of using revenue comparisons because the terms aren't equal and too much is lost in the ambiguity and the general lack on information. The PS3 looks so good now, because it was a joke a year ago. It's still losing. The Wii looks bad but is still winning.

Now were the PS3 can claim glory, IMO, has been how the legs of its game have overall improved. Starting late last year, the difference between the PS3 and 360 was represent strictly be the difference seen in the Top 10 charts. Based on this article and what we've seen so far this year, it looks like the PS3 is now overtaking the 360 in that regard.

Last Christmas we saw a mass exodus away from COD:MW2 into this year. As a result, the Wii beat everything ever like never before. What we've seen this year looks to just be a re-balancing of those actions. The Wii will likely get the better end.

Sales represented in the Top 10 since Jan 2010 (units):
360 = 6.0 million
Wii = 5.5 million
PS3 = 4.7 million
It's not surprising anymore where these sales come from. On Wii, all of those sales, save for SMG2's, came from games released last year or early. On the PS3 and 360, all of those sales, save CODMW2's, came from new games release this year.
 
Beer Monkey said:
No doubt. They are in the fifth year of the console (longer than the 360 lasted), they had a one-year head start, and they STILL have sold twice as much software LTD in N/A than PS3?

A 1600 point MS card is the best selling console accessory three months in a row?

Nobody ever would have predicted this at the beginning of the generation.
Click to expand...

Not quite. The 5th year will start on 11/22/2010. But you're right about it outlasting the original Xbox already. This bolds well for 360 support after the release of their next console as well. User base will likely be north of 60 million by then and its just good business to support such a large user base a good 3 years after the next console is released.
 
Opiate said:
The Wii continues to see YoY hardware declines, while the PS3 and 360 (particularly PS3) have gone up significantly year after year.

If this means that neither system has peaked yet in the US (which is possible), then the very long generation seems highly plausible.

In turn, the Wii looks like it will indeed have a far shorter lifespan. This may seem obvious now, but a year or two ago it wasn't: many people couldn't fathom why Nintendo would kill an enormous profitable product like the Wii while Sony and Microsoft trundled on with far less succesful products like the PS3 and 360. Now, it appears increasingly likely that this is precisely what's going to happen.
Click to expand...

In general I agree with this theory, although it doesn't surprise me particularly much. In any case, did you see my response to a similar post of yours in another thread? While I agree that what you say accurately describes the current situation, I don't think that this is as much reflective of an environment with one normal console and one "freak" console, but of two "freak" consoles. (I've considered the 360 and the PS3 as the same console.)

Puncture said:
Neither of the two consoles are matching the software sales nor hardware sales of the Wii at the moment. Neither, to talk about killing the Wii console simply because the other two have just recently started to exceed the Wii sales when they COMBINE their totals is very very silly. As is attempting to predict the expected lifespan of the console just as soon as we get the first little bit of proof that its sales potential does indeed have a crescendo.
Click to expand...

Actually, I'm not sure that we've reached the point where we can confidently say this. To look at the UK, for example, the 360 had something akin to 30% of all software sales in May (iirc), and that's in terms of units. In the UK, at least, Wii software sales have dropped dramatically.
 
Opiate said:
The Wii continues to see YoY hardware declines.
Click to expand...
I'll just repeat what I mentioned in another thread recently.

Wii sales have almost certainly peaked in N.A. But that is perfectly normal and expected. Iwata even mentioned it in some investor briefing some months ago. They know the Wii has peaked, and they are just trying to guide it to a soft and gradual landing instead of a crash landing.

The PS2 peaked in its 2nd year as well, by the way, so this is not atypical at all.

PS2: (using full calendar years)

Year 1 - 6.18M
Year 2 - 8.39M
Year 3 - 6.31M
Year 4 - 4.68M

Wii:

Year 1 - 6.29M
Year 2 - 10.17M
Year 3 - 9.59M
Year 4 - ???


The Wii actually held up much better in Year 3 than should have been expected (and starting from a higher plateau as well), so it should probably be due for a bigger fall in Year 4. (Somewhere around only 4.76M for year 4 would actually put the Wii at the same Year 1 to Year 4 transition as the PS2)

Anyway, it shouldn't be any sort of surprise (or concern) that the Wii has already peaked.



Opiate said:
In turn, the Wii looks like it will indeed have a far shorter lifespan. This may seem obvious now, but a year or two ago it wasn't: many people couldn't fathom why Nintendo would kill an enormous profitable product like the Wii while Sony and Microsoft trundled on with far less succesful products like the PS3 and 360. Now, it appears increasingly likely that this is precisely what's going to happen.
Click to expand...
I think you may be rewriting history a bit. A year or two ago, a few people were saying that the Wii needed some sort of WiiHD to be released immediately, right then and there. Most other rational people said that would be silly, and that the Wii didn't need some mid-generation HD-upgrade system. And they were correct.

But I don't remember many people at all suggesting that the Wii would abandon a traditional console cycle for some 10-year plan or anything like that. The Wii will be entering it's fifth year this holiday season. Having a new hardware system in place by year 6 or so would be perfectly normal, and I really don't remember some big chorus of people suggesting that Nintendo would do otherwise.
 
gerg said:
Actually, I'm not sure that we've reached the point where we can confidently say this. To look at the UK, for example, the 360 had something akin to 30% of all software sales in May (iirc), and that's in terms of units. In the UK, at least, Wii software sales have dropped dramatically.
Click to expand...


Thats talking about one month, in the UK. No offense but this is the NPD Gamasutra thread, if we are going to bring Japan and the UK and all of the other regions into it, with the elusiveness of concrete numbers from some of these countries its going to turn into a cluster of insanity. I was speaking purely from the market being discussed in this thread, as I also assumed Opiate was.
 
Puncture said:
Thats talking about one month, in the UK. No offense but this is the NPD Gamasutra thread, if we are going to bring Japan and the UK and all of the other regions into it, with the elusiveness of concrete numbers from some of these countries its going to turn into a cluster of insanity. I was speaking purely from the market being discussed in this thread, as I also assumed Opiate was.
Click to expand...

I understand the regional differences between those numbers, but the assumption that Nintendo is going to release a new console relatively soon is dependent upon the sales of hardware and software in all regions, hence the relevance of figures from the UK.

Edit: But, in general, I agree that hardware sales will be the deciding factor in Nintendo's console plans (as opposed to software sales), so this fact may be less significant than I may have implied.
 
Darth Tigris said:
Not quite. The 5th year will start on 11/22/2010.
Click to expand...

No. We are midway through the 5th year of the 360 and midway through the 4th year of the PS3 and Wii.

Thhe 360 is approaching its 6th xmas season and the PS3 and Wii their 5th.
 
I reckon Nintendo will be the first to kick start the next generation, not because of this decline but simply to grab 3rd party support. The real reason for these Wii declines simply comes down to a lack of new compelling software outside of the odd Nintendo release (Just Dance was a lucky exception) while the DS hasn't seen many big releases of it's own (and is no doubt also suffering somewhat by the announcement of the 3DS)

I would also place some of the blame for Blur, Modnation and SS's disappointing sales on Red Dead Redemption which has utterly dominated the HD twins this month (though Blur had no chance really)
 
Puncture said:
Thats talking about one month, in the UK. No offense but this is the NPD Gamasutra thread, if we are going to bring Japan and the UK and all of the other regions into it, with the elusiveness of concrete numbers from some of these countries its going to turn into a cluster of insanity. I was speaking purely from the market being discussed in this thread, as I also assumed Opiate was.
Click to expand...

current-gen-sw-marketshare-2010.png


This covers nearly the first half of the year. The 360 might actually creep ahead for 2010 if June is a strong month thanks to the new hardware.
 
Off course Wii software sales are down YoY. The Wii has so little significant releases every month it's not even funny. I can't remember the last game that I bought for the system, even though I intend to buy a few games for the system during this year.

Meanwhile, the PS3 and XBOX360 get all the love from publishers. I'm not saying this is wrong, they are right in doing that. Last year saw a bunch of releases from companies for the Wii and there were a lot of casualities in terms of software. Many bombs and whatnot.

The Wii needs another vigor title for itself. 2008 was that good for growth for the platform because it had a few titles that really defined the system. I think 2009 was just about NSMB Wii and Wii Fit Plus, wasn't it?
 
Opiate said:
The Wii continues to see YoY hardware declines, while the PS3 and 360 (particularly PS3) have gone up significantly year after year.

If this means that neither system has peaked yet in the US (which is possible), then the very long generation seems highly plausible.

In turn, the Wii looks like it will indeed have a far shorter lifespan. This may seem obvious now, but a year or two ago it wasn't: many people couldn't fathom why Nintendo would kill an enormous profitable product like the Wii while Sony and Microsoft trundled on with far less succesful products like the PS3 and 360. Now, it appears increasingly likely that this is precisely what's going to happen.
Click to expand...

I think you're right (about Wii having a shorter lifespan), but I also get the impression that it's what you want to happen and that you expect it will happen faster than it actually will (late 2012 at the earliest, IMO.. and it will continue to lead sales at least into this Christmas, if not longer)

As well, the "very long generation" might not seem so plausible if Nintendo launches a next-gen console that offers something worth upgrading for other than Mario games. Microsoft proved this generation the value of releasing early and Nintendo is well positioned to be the company to do that in the upcoming generation.
 
Ashes1396 said:
Dead till november? sure. That's a reasonable assumption to make from the data present.
Click to expand...
That will be the last one to check off; iirc, Forza and NFS has also been in decline (nowhere as bad as some of these numbers we're seeing).
 
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Nankatsu replied
Famitsu Sales: Week 22, 2026 (May 25 - May 31)
Sales-Age 
30
550
S0ULZB0URNE replied
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