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Next-Gen PS5 & Next Xbox |OT| Speculation/Analysis/Leaks Thread

SonGoku

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Welcome to the next-gen analysis/speculation and rumors thread. Next-generation chatter is exciting but can also be very confusing. I've decided to put all the gossip, and info regarding next-gen consoles into this one thread. That way we can thoroughly discuss and analyze every sort of information that is being fed to us, and continue to talk about these exciting times in a orderly manner. Thanks!

Head here for PS3 vs 360 power arguments to avoid derailing this thread

Previous threads:

PS5
RuthenicCookie who broke news of Sony not going to E3 says PS5 is a Monster (Details inside) 15-11-18
Supposed PS5 specs from random Beyond3D member (Silly but this is also how the 1st Wii U specs was leaked) 11-02-19
Rumor: PS5 To Introduce Playstation Plus Premium In 2020, Exclusive Betas And Private Servers. 08-04-19
[WIRED] Exclusive with Mark Cerny, PS5 specs detailed 16-04-19
Rumor: PS5 devkits ~ 13 TFLOPS 30-04-19
Sony: “Ultra-High-Speed” SSD Will Make Loading Screens “A Thing of the Past” 19-05-19
Next Box
Rumor: Next-Gen Xbox console may feature an internal physics engine 14-03-19
Next Xbox is ‘More Advanced’ Than the PS5 according to Insiders. 19-04-19
Pricing the Xbox Anaconda and Lockhart 30-04-19
Inside Microsoft’s Plans For The Next Xbox 10-05-19
AMD
AMD CEO Lisa Su describes key gaming partnerships with Sony, Microsoft: We're helping them with their 'secret sauce'. 14-09-18
AMD's next-gen PlayStation/Xbox chip moves closer to final version 13-04-19
AMD's Lisa Su confirms next-gen PlayStation to have Zen 2 and Navi 16-04-19
About the Arcturus meme... 19-04-19
AMD board leak hints at next-gen 'Navi' graphics tech 28-04-19
AMD Boss Teases chip to power PS5's "Secret Special Sauce"? 02-05-19
Latest Speculation from "known sources" points to Navi(GPU in next-gen consoles) having issues. 04-05-19
Devs/3rd Party
Interpoint Dev On Next-Gen Specs: Number of TFLOPS Not Worth Pursuing. 03-04-19
Next-gen could make it easier for AI programmers to create more complex games. 18-04-19
EA prepares technology for next-gen consoles. 10-05-19
Wired Exclusive with Mark Cerny
PS5 official info:
Backwards compatible with PS4 games(improvement in, at least, loading speeds)
SSD "faster than any current solution on PC gaming"
7nm 8 core AMD Zen 2 CPU
7nm AMD Radeon Navi GPU
Ray tracing supported
Up to 8K output supported
Up to 120 fps support
Not coming in 2019
"Appealing" price for "what you get" with the console
Xbox Project Scarlett - E3 2019 - Reveal Trailer
Official Xbox Scarlet Specifications:
Zen 2 CPU
NAVI GPU
GDDR6 Memory (Likely 24 GDDR6 on a 384 bit bus)
Up to 8K output support
Up to 120 fps support
Ray tracing support - Hardware-accelerated
Variable Refresh Rate Support
SSD (Can be used as virtual memory)
Backwards Compatible
Next Gen related news/speculation/rumors:
AdoredTV Updated Navi Cards chart
Teraflops Peak Performance Lookup Table (Note: GCN limit is 64 CUs)
GDDR6 Bandwidth and size combinations
8th generation consoles silicon size
Code:
                  Die Size     Process    Transistors    Release Date
Wii U               146          40       0.8 Billion        2012
PlayStation 4 F     348          28       4~5 Billion        2013
PlayStation 4 S     208          16       4~5 Billion        2016
PlayStation 4 P     232          16       5.7 Billion        2016
Xbox One F          363          28       5.0 Billion        2013
Xbox One S          240          16       5.0 Billion        2016
Xbox One X          359          16       7.0 Billion        2017
About software based RT
Things to look out for when searching for PS5 leaks
 
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Evilms

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Excellent summary (y)

Otherwise the GCN tech is limited to 64 ROPs so maximum 4096 shading units.
 
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SonGoku

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Possibility of 12-13TF and (maybe even 14TF!) depends entirely on TDP, silicon wise a 60CU GPU(4 disabled) & 8c/16t Zen 2 CPU would fit on a 380-400mm2 APU die
Zen2 8 cores are 75mm2
64 CUs takes up around ~140mm2 on Vega at 7nm (Navi might or might not improve this)
Which leaves 165-185mm2 for rops, decoders, buses, caches, audio chips, ARM cores, secret sauces etc.

For reference
Launch PS4 die was 348mm2 ($399 system made to profit from day one at a time where Consoles existence was uncertain and Sony couldn't afford any risks)
XBONE X die was 360mm2 ($499 made for profit premium device)

Having said that I think it is within the realm of possibility for a $500 console to use a 380-400mm2 APU die at 200W max TDP (for the console)
Assuming AdoredTV Navis power consumption is true anything between 12-13TF its what realistically possible on a $500 system.
 
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Feb 17, 2019
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Good Thread.

I think I have pretty reasonable/conservative expectation for the next generation of consoles. I don't bother too much right now with Microsoft, because I am a PC + PS4 gamer and I generally do own a PC that is better than an Xbox so I would favor Microsoft games, which now are Win10+Xbox, to play on my PC. So my focus of speculation is mostly about the PS5. Also the two SKU approach from Microsoft makes it even harder to guess.

Ok here I go for my personal estimation of the PS5.

- Q3-Q4 2020 Release date. November if I had to pick a month.
- $399-$499. I think $499 is more likely this time around
- Zen2 based CPU. Either 8 core or 8c/16t. Clockspeeds around 2.7-3.2 GHZ
- 16GB RAM. Maybe 20GB if they have some reserved for the OS
- Navi GPU max 56 CUs @ 1500MHZ for 10.8 TFLOPs. Could be lower
- Not sure if they will have any sort of RayTracing hardware. Hard to tell.
- 500GB - 1TB NVMe SSD

Some thoughts regarding what I posted. I am most sure about the release date, but to be fair it is pretty obvious that Sony releases around the Holiday 2020 season given what we heard so far.

Price point is hard to say, because I think the PS5 is going to be more expensive to manufacture for Sony, but at the same time we are full in the digital age and money from PSN is bigger than ever so a lot of people having PS Plus, PS Now and buying stuff on PSN is more important than hardware sales. If I had a say and was in any way responsible for the PS5 MSRP then I'd go with $399 again. It is the perfect price point for a console imho. It is still affordable and doesn't feel outlandish and they will sell out for months. Other options would be offering one PS5 with 500GB Storage and one with 1TB and have them be $449 and $499 or so.
For me personally $499 is still acceptable, but then I expect overall higher quality and performance. Fewer compromises.

CPU is also "confirmed" by Cerny to be Zen2 and have 8 cores (?) I think that is what he said. It isn't even that exciting to talk about in terms of hardware specifications and numbers, but we should be excited about the performance of Zen2, because that thing is a huge step up from Jaguar and should give us a great leap for the PS5.

GPU is the most interesting one and the most polarizing when it comes to guestimating the PS5. I have seen anything from 8TF all the way up to 15TF on the internet. And I think the PS5 will fall in that range, but I think it is more likely to be on the lower end around 10TFLOPs. Higher is just not possible. Everything higher than 12 TFLOPs is just dreaming imho. If the PS5 actually manages 12TF that would make my jaw drop. 10TF would be where I say "Ok that is about what I expected" and 8TF would be "that is a shame and I am a bit disappointed, but I know how hard it is to get a small GPU into the APU and having it run at high clockspeeds with good thermals and power consumption".

RAM is pretty boring. They will give us what they think they can get away with and it "being enough" for 7+ years. So I guess somewhere around 16 to 24 GB of RAM. 16 is my personal guess here. Anything above that is just icing on the cake.

Storage is probably the most interesting for me for the next gen. I am super hyped about "Ultra fast SSD storage" what Sony said. By late 2020 buying SSDs in bulk should be reasonable for Sony and comparable to the 2013 HDD prices (roughly). I am excited for loading games extremely fast. It is something that needs to happen.

Secret Sauce : Could be hardware based RayTracing. Maybe the custom Navi for Sony has a few RayTracing cores similar to what nvidia currently offers on the RTX cards. I don't expect much, but I think if it is the case and Sony indeed goes with a few RT cores that talented Developers like naughty dog and so on will be able to use it to make our heads explode.

Please note that those are just my personal speculations and all numbers are purely pulled from behind my ears.
 

Evilms

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Code:
                  Die Size     Process    Transistors    Release Date
Wii U               146          40       0.8 Billion        2012
PlayStation 4 F     348          28       4~5 Billion        2013
PlayStation 4 S     208          16       4~5 Billion        2016
PlayStation 4 P     232          16       5.7 Billion        2016
Xbox One F          363          28       5.0 Billion        2013
Xbox One S          240          16       5.0 Billion        2016
Xbox One X          359          16       7.0 Billion        2017
 
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SonGoku

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GPU is the most interesting one and the most polarizing when it comes to guestimating the PS5. I have seen anything from 8TF all the way up to 15TF on the internet. And I think the PS5 will fall in that range, but I think it is more likely to be on the lower end around 10TFLOPs. Higher is just not possible. Everything higher than 12 TFLOPs is just dreaming imho.
Its not though... Even going with the worse case scenario for Navi cards:


You'll notice a 60 CU (4 disabled) Navi 20 card matches Radeon VII (13.8 TF card) at 180W
With clocks fined tuned to hit a performance per watt sweet spot 12.9TF suddenly becomes possible at 150W or less

My prediction is:
$400 to target high 11TFs
$500 12.5-13TF
24GB GDDR6 would cost console manufacturers 100-150 dollars on high volume long term contracts
24GB is a nice proper next gen leap and the 384bit bus super convenient to push insane bandwidth needed to get the most out of GCN at 4Kish resolutions.
 
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bitbydeath

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Not sure if they will have any sort of RayTracing hardware. Hard to tell.
It’s already confirmed the GPU (hardware) will support Ray Tracing.

The GPU, a custom variant of Radeon’s Navi family, will support ray tracing
 
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SonGoku

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Code:
                  Die Size     Process    Transistors    Release Date
Wii U               146         40         0.8 Billion        2012
PlayStation 4 F     348          28       4~5 Billion        2013
PlayStation 4 S     208          16       4~5 Billion        2016
PlayStation 4 P     232          16       5.7 Billion        2016
Xbox One F          363          28       5.0 Billion        2013
Xbox One S          240          16       5.0 Billion        2016
Xbox One X          359          16       7.0 Billion        2017
Wow didn't know the og xbone apu die was so massive, sram costed them dearly.
Would you mind if i yoink this for the OP?
 
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Evilms

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Wow dint know the og xbone apu die was so massive, sram costed them dearly
Would you mind if i yoink this for the OP?
No problem my friend, I added the wii u.

Code:
                  Die Size     Process    Transistors    Release Date
RX Vega 56          495          14       12.5 Billion       2017
RX Vega 64          495          14       12.5 Billion       2017
RX Vega II          331          07       13.2 Billion       2019
 
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Feb 17, 2019
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Its not though... Even going with the worse case scenario for Navi cards:


You'll notice a 60 CU (4 disabled) Navi 20 card matches Radeon VII (13.8 TF card) at 180W
With clocks fined tuned to hit a performance per watt sweet spot 12.9TF suddenly becomes possible at 150W or less

My prediction is:
$400 to target high 11TFs
$500 12.5-13TF
I have seen those AdorevTV leaks yeah.

In that leaked chart the graphics card RX 3090 consumes less than the RX 3080 XT even though it has more Compute Units? That whole chart seems flawed imho.
Also the RX 3080 is faster than the RX 3080 XT according to that card, because Vega 64 + 10% is a bit faster than an RTX 2070 (depending on benchmarks I guess) and that for $50 cheaper and 15 fewer watts.
(Would be awesome if those leaks are true because then I buy an RX 3080 as soon as they come out. Vega 64 + 10% @ 175W for $280 sounds awesome).

Then there is also the problem that a 60 Compute Unit die would be too big for a console APU even on 7nm. I think the 331mm² Vega VII has 60 CUs doesn't it?

I mean i genuinely hope to be wrong and the next gen consoles are 12+ TF, but I feel like that is a bit too much wishful thinking for me personally.
I could see 11 TF happen if Navi clocks really high and is easy to cool.

It’s already confirmed the GPU (hardware) will support Ray Tracing.



It just says "supports" ray tracing. Could be Direct X software RayTracing kind of like the GTX 10 series is doing right now or like the Vega 56 CryTek Demo.
There is a huge difference between dedicated RayTracing hardware and supporting RayTracing.

I mean I still expect Sony and Microsoft to go in that direction, but we don't have any official confirmation that it is indeed full dedicated Ray Tracing hardware.
 

ethomaz

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There is a hardware limitation to GCN AND 64CUs is the max.

So the table should have only what can be archived with Navi and not impossible config.

So to be informative and accurate you need to stick with up to 64CUs in your table.

On the clock side can go up to 1800/1900Mhz... you can remove 900Mhz and 1000Mhz to make space.
 
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Nikana

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Code:
                  Die Size     Process    Transistors    Release Date
Wii U               146          40       0.8 Billion        2012
PlayStation 4 F     348          28       4~5 Billion        2013
PlayStation 4 S     208          16       4~5 Billion        2016
PlayStation 4 P     232          16       5.7 Billion        2016
Xbox One F          363          28       5.0 Billion        2013
Xbox One S          240          16       5.0 Billion        2016
Xbox One X          359          16       7.0 Billion        2017
This is a good chart! I didn't know the pro was only 232. I thought it was a 330.
 

SonGoku

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In that leaked chart the graphics card RX 3090 consumes less than the RX 3080 XT even though it has more Compute Units? That whole chart seems flawed imho.
Makes sense, we've seen Polaris cards with lower CU counts hitting diminishing returns on clocks for the sake of squeezing every bit of performance and they end up having worse performance per watt than Vega
Also the RX 3080 is faster than the RX 3080 XT according to that card, because Vega 64 + 10% is a bit faster than an RTX 2070 (depending on benchmarks I guess) and that for $50 cheaper and 15 fewer watts.
Thats just his interpretation/head cannon within margin of error
Then there is also the problem that a 60 Compute Unit die would be too big for a console APU even on 7nm. I think the 331mm² Vega VII has 60 CUs doesn't it?
From my previous post:
A 60CU GPU (4 disabled) & 8c/16t Zen 2 CPU would fit on a 380-400mm2 APU die
Zen2 8 cores are 75mm2
64 CUs takes up around ~140mm2 on Vega at 7nm (Navi might or might not improve this)
Which leaves 165-185mm2 for rops, decoders, buses, caches, audio chips, ARM cores, secret sauces etc.
 
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SonGoku

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There is a hardware limitation to GCN AND 64CUs is the max.
So the table should have only what can be archived with Navi and not impossible config.
So to be informative and accurate you need to stick with up to 64CUs in your table.
On the clock side can go up to 1800/1900Mhz... you can remove 900Mhz and 1000Mhz to make space.
I just yoinked that table for informative purposes, might do a corrected version later on, If you wish you can do the table :p
I would greatly appreciate not having to fiddle with excel.
 
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CyberPanda

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I just yoinked that table for informative purposes, might do a corrected version later on, If you wish you can do the table :p
I would greatly appreciate not having to fiddle with excel.
Hmmm, I know where you got that chart. You sneaky devil.😒
 
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Feb 17, 2019
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From my previous post:
A 60CU GPU (4 disabled) & 8c/16t Zen 2 CPU would fit on a 380-400mm2 APU die
Zen2 8 cores are 75mm2
64 CUs takes up around ~140mm2 on Vega at 7nm (Navi might or might not improve this)
Which leaves 165-185mm2 for rops, decoders, buses, caches, audio chips, ARM cores, secret sauces etc.
That does sound quite big for a console APU. That is bigger than PS4, PS4 Pro, Xbox One and Xbox One X isn't it?
 

SonGoku

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Still curious if Microsoft will use Navi or Vega.
No reason for them not to unless you are thinking of machine learning?
Maybe thats the secret sauce they've worked with AMD for Navi
That does sound quite big for a console APU. That is bigger than PS4, PS4 Pro, Xbox One and Xbox One X isn't it?
380-400mm2 should be doable on a $500 system selling at cost or small loss.
For reference:
Launch PS4 die was 348mm2 ($399 system made to profit from day one at a time where Consoles existence was uncertain and Sony couldn't afford any risks)
XBONE X die was 360mm2 ($499 made for profit premium device)
 
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~Fake

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No reason for them not to unless you are thinking of machine learning?
Marbe thats the secret sauce they've worked with AMD for Navi
Dunno, but what others rumors say about AMD and Sony made some kinda of partnership for develop Navi hardware and leave Microsoft with no other solution. besides Vega.
Just my guess.
 

SonGoku

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Dunno, but what others rumors say about AMD and Sony made some kinda of partnership for develop Navi hardware and leave Microsoft with no other solution. besides Vega.
Just my guess.
I think those are just wild theories at most Sony will have their own exclusive features (secret sauce)
 
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~Fake

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I think those are just wild theories at most Sony will have their own exclusive features (secret sauce)
Indeed, but I have other theory too. AMD never make much money from selling hardware for Sony, but instead Sony help AMD and AMD help Sony in some kinda of technological improvement. Both companies share experiences, AMD from the GPU/CPU market and Sony from TV market, maybe with that Bravia TV Xpro chip or calibration.
I just using the 'AMD and Sony collaboration for making Navi' stuff for my theory. We can expect some confirmation at this E3 by Microsoft if they really gonna use NAVI or not.
 
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bitbydeath

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I have seen those AdorevTV leaks yeah.

In that leaked chart the graphics card RX 3090 consumes less than the RX 3080 XT even though it has more Compute Units? That whole chart seems flawed imho.
Also the RX 3080 is faster than the RX 3080 XT according to that card, because Vega 64 + 10% is a bit faster than an RTX 2070 (depending on benchmarks I guess) and that for $50 cheaper and 15 fewer watts.
(Would be awesome if those leaks are true because then I buy an RX 3080 as soon as they come out. Vega 64 + 10% @ 175W for $280 sounds awesome).

Then there is also the problem that a 60 Compute Unit die would be too big for a console APU even on 7nm. I think the 331mm² Vega VII has 60 CUs doesn't it?

I mean i genuinely hope to be wrong and the next gen consoles are 12+ TF, but I feel like that is a bit too much wishful thinking for me personally.
I could see 11 TF happen if Navi clocks really high and is easy to cool.



It just says "supports" ray tracing. Could be Direct X software RayTracing kind of like the GTX 10 series is doing right now or like the Vega 56 CryTek Demo.
There is a huge difference between dedicated RayTracing hardware and supporting RayTracing.

I mean I still expect Sony and Microsoft to go in that direction, but we don't have any official confirmation that it is indeed full dedicated Ray Tracing hardware.
If it were software based they would not have pointed out the GPU (hardware) directly and just said the PS5 supports Ray Tracing.
 

SonGoku

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Stupid question, but have either AMD or Sony actually ever acknowledged that they have worked together on Navi?
Closest we have to that is AMD's Lisa Su commenting on working with Sony for their special sauce
I dont think Navi its exclusive to Sony, at they'll get exclusive features (secret sauce) and maybe lower APU cost.
 

Sycomunkee

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Dunno, but what others rumors say about AMD and Sony made some kinda of partnership for develop Navi hardware and leave Microsoft with no other solution. besides Vega.
Just my guess.
That rumor doesn't make sense. Microsoft would be pretty pissed at AMD if they pulled that.