NPD Sales for July 2015

Dec 12, 2013
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varied = a bunch of JRPGs.

Those games will make sure the JRPG fan audience goes to PS4, just like it went to PS3, just like it went to PS2, etc. Having 10 exclusive JRPGs isn't a huge difference from having 3 exclusive JRPGs, either way you're the console that caters to that niche.
Yes varied. It's not just jrpg's. Either way it doesn't matter, that's dozens of titles XB1 doesn't have.

We're all going to have to agree to disagree about this. Heh.

:)
 
Aug 31, 2013
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Of course, but you can't compare Call of Duty and another game like Dragon Quest Heroes in the USA in regards to the impact they have on driving console sales.
Marketing deals and performance aside, games like CoD won't be driving hardware decisions because they're available on both platforms. Therefore, games like DQH are exactly what drives platform decisions. If you like CoD and DQH, which platform are you gonna buy? How about if you like CoD and SF? How about CoD and Persona? How about CoD and Risen? How about CoD and No Man's Sky? How about…


No, it's when a game has a big market. I think that convenient is ignoring that.

And I'm not discounting any game, just giving the importance that actually have in the market.
Previously, you were dividing games in to meaningful and not meaningful. Saying nobody cares about the games not on XBox isn't the same as saying, "Hey, at least they haven't lost CoD entirely, so they still have that going for them!" Sure, having CoD is more important than having those other games. Perhaps more important than having all of those other games. But having CoD isn't particularly special, so don't try to act like those other games aren't special simply because they don't sell much individually. They're unique offerings by definition.


Well then I agree with your position. It is pretty significant. It's just not the only significant thing to consider.
Again, what else should we be considering?

"Microsoft's main concern is maintaining market share to avoid losing more third party support."
"They're not losing third party support."
"Umm, yes they are."
"Those games don't really matter."
"How can you say that?"
"I'm not saying they don't matter; I'm saying it's not their main concern."
"So what's their main concern?"
"Software variety."
#dead

The simple fact is DQH will be another game of many not available on XB1. Eventually all these titles add up to make PS4's game library look more diverse and attractive to consumers.

For example a game like this alone isn't going to push console sales that much-

http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00X8XVJJ2/ref=twister_B00X8XOOM6?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1

But when you add that to games like Tales, DQH, Disgaea 5 and the other weird niche titles, i can't imagine having that varied a library doesn't have an affect on consumers choosing which console to buy.
Yup. It's easy to dismiss these titles as relatively meaningless because of their comparatively small sales, but niche titles like these are the primary source of variety on a platform. So your platform still has CoD. That's nothing to hang your hat on. Your rival has it too, and their version runs better, and they get "early" access to content. Plus, they have a bunch of games you don't have at all.

nothingtoseehere.gif
 
Jun 19, 2014
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Dragon Quest 8 came out on the PS2 which kind of defeats the point of your guys argument but for what it is worth according to this article from Kotaku it sold half a million copies in the West.

In a statement issued yesterday by the company, it was revealed that sales of Dragon Quest IX on the DS have just pushed past the 4.15 million barrier, allowing the game to pass the lifetime sales of Dragon Quest VIII and become the biggest-selling game in the series.

And that's before it's even out in the West, where DQVIII sold half a million copies.
 
May 23, 2013
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Marketing deals and performance aside, games like CoD won't be driving hardware decisions because they're available on both platforms. Therefore, games like DQH are exactly what drives platform decisions. If you like CoD and DQH, which platform are you gonna buy? How about if you like CoD and SF? How about CoD and Persona? How about CoD and Risen? How about CoD and No Man's Sky? How about…
There is a difference between core and casual gamers.
 
Aug 31, 2013
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There is a difference between core and casual gamers.
Yes, I'm aware of that. What are you driving at? Are you telling me casuals buy CoD and Ass Creed, and give zero fucks about any of the other games available on their platform, so a large library doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things? Got anything to back that up? I'm skeptical. "Software library" or something similar seems to usually rank fairly high when purchasing motivations are surveyed, at least from what I've seen. Queso seems to think software variety is a top concern except when it isn't. /shrug
 
May 23, 2013
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Yes, I'm aware of that. What are you driving at? Are you telling me casuals buy CoD and Ass Creed, and give zero fucks about any of the other games available on their platform, so a large library doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things? Got anything to back that up? I'm skeptical.
Software Library is very important.

But there is also a reason why COD sells so much in the first place.

Just look at the Nintendo Wii and the rise of AAA casual franchises (and then sharp decline). Or look at STEAM and the latest stats which show the majority of gamers spend all their time just playing a couple of games.

Notice how In my last posts I used the word "consoles" to refer to all consoles. These big games are driving console sales, whether that be PS4 or XB1. For a lot of people the concern will be around if that console plays "AAA game" which it will. So it becomes a contender straight away. For a lot of people (read casuals) the niche titles don't matter and won't be considered in the purchase. Other factors are more important, one of them being AAA Game, compared to whether or not the console plays Dragon Quest.
 
May 16, 2006
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Previously, you were dividing games in to meaningful and not meaningful. Saying nobody cares about the games not on XBox isn't the same as saying, "Hey, at least they haven't lost CoD entirely, so they still have that going for them!" Sure, having CoD is more important than having those other games. Perhaps more important than having all of those other games. But having CoD isn't particularly special, so don't try to act like those other games aren't special simply because they don't sell much individually. They're unique offerings by definition.
The subject is about MS third party support and the relevance of certain games in the market, it's nothing about games being "special" or "unique".

The central point is that MS is not in trouble because Star Ocean, Tales of and others are not coming for Xbox One.
 
Dec 12, 2013
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The subject is about MS third party support and the relevance of certain games in the market, it's nothing about games being "special" or "unique".

The central point is that MS is not in trouble because Star Ocean, Tales of and others are not coming for Xbox One.
And it was explained why having a larger more diverse library is a good thing vs not having it.

We are going in circles.
 
Aug 10, 2013
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And it was explained why having a larger more diverse library is a good thing vs not having it.
Sure, it's a good thing. And the PS4 is doing very well partly because of this. Does this mean the XB1 is doomed though? What should MS give up to get the XB1 at PS4-levels of 3rd party support for these (mostly) niche titles? Is it worth the investment for them to do so when in the past they have not seen great success in attracting these types of games (or much in the way of sales when they do manage to get these types of games)?

We are going in circles.
Indeed we are.
 
Aug 31, 2013
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Just look at the Nintendo Wii and the rise of AAA casual franchises (and then sharp decline). Or look at STEAM and the latest stats which show the majority of gamers spend all their time just playing a couple of games.
Yes, that's precisely the sort of data I was asking for. I'm not surprised most users only play a couple of games. Does the data show the majority of users play tentpole franchises and nothing else, or does it show they play CoD and Random Niche Game exclusively? Links?

Notice how In my last posts I used the word "consoles" to refer to all consoles. These big games are driving console sales, whether that be PS4 or XB1. For a lot of people the concern will be around if that console plays "AAA game" which it will. So it becomes a contender straight away.
I'm not disputing that. I'm trying to figure out why you think the average consumer's analysis will end there, because they've already decided they'll never play anything else. Even if it's true, wouldn't that make bundles ridiculously effective? Not only does this one play CoD, it says so right on the box, and even comes with the game. Isn't that precisely the brain-dead type of decision you're arguing drives the vast majority of sales? Aren't people gonna look at the PlayStation this Christmas and see it has every game they've ever heard of on the box and then look at the Bone that just says Halo? You say, "This one plays ____," is all they need to hear before they pounce, right?

Other factors are more important, one of them being AAA Game, compared to whether or not the console plays Dragon Quest.
The both play the AAA game(s). I don't see why that makes Dragon Quest less relevant instead of more so. You say it's not a significant differentiating factor, but it's the differentiating factor. No, not Dragon Quest specifically. The variety, specifically. PlayStation has all the games you're getting on XBox, plus a bunch more. I seriously don't see how you can argue that doesn't matter.

The subject is about MS third party support and the relevance of certain games in the market, it's nothing about games being "special" or "unique".

The central point is that MS is not in trouble because Star Ocean, Tales of and others are not coming for Xbox One.
The central point is that you have it backwards. CoD being on XBox isn't relevant because it's on PlayStation. It's not a selling point for XBox. Dragon Quest is a selling point for PlayStation, because it's not on XBox. You're right that some games are more important than others, but it's the exclusives that offer actual value. Multiplats don't give you anything you can't get anywhere else, especially multiplats you get on XBox.
 
Feb 16, 2010
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ITT I learned that Microsoft is doomed because it doesn't have enough market share to draw titles like Dragon's Quest, but that's only because it didn't have Dragon's Quest, which it needed to have higher market share.

I give up. Believe what you want.
 
Dec 12, 2013
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Sure, it's a good thing. And the PS4 is doing very well partly because of this. Does this mean the XB1 is doomed though? What should MS give up to get the XB1 at PS4-levels of 3rd party support for these (mostly) niche titles? Is it worth the investment for them to do so when in the past they have not seen great success in attracting these types of games (or much in the way of sales when they do manage to get these types of games)?
No one is saying it's doomed.

I really don't feel like explaining myself again. You're going to have to go through those post.

EDIT-

PS4 having that selection of titles could make it more of a potential buy for someone looking at the overall library. To put it simply.
 
May 16, 2006
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The central point is that you have it backwards. CoD being on XBox isn't relevant because it's on PlayStation. It's not a selling point for XBox. Dragon Quest is a selling point for PlayStation, because it's not on XBox. You're right that some games are more important than others, but it's the exclusives that offer actual value. Multiplats don't give you anything you can't get anywhere else, especially multiplats you get on XBox.
What?

CoD is a huge system seller for both Xbox One and PS4. It's a selling point for Xbox One simply because is there, if wasn't the consequences would be dramatic.
 
Nov 13, 2011
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The assumption seems essentially that the order winning factor in nearly all cases is X exclusive, with various relatively niche titles being cited. And that this has a cumulative or multiplicative effect. Despite that the vast amount of software sales are centred on a small number of megabrands, largely annualised.

A given title being exclusive or being perceived as exclusive can be order winning, but by and large a myriad other factors likely supersede that if it's even a consideration at all. For example, what did I own before - brand loyalty, user interface familiarity; what do my friends own - network effects.

So it's a flawed assumption that's perpetuated due to people projecting their own purchase rationalisation onto the broader market. (Although, I suppose this assumes people are even buying these niche titles rather than just listing them.) And it becomes progressively more flawed as we transition from the early market to the mass.

Or, in short. When the PS4 sells more than the Xbox One in the US, it isn't predominantly because it has DOA Extreme or some random musou game in addition to COD. It qualifies due to games like COD, and wins largely based on more intangible factors.
 
Apr 18, 2005
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varied = a bunch of JRPGs.

Those games will make sure the JRPG fan audience goes to PS4, just like it went to PS3, just like it went to PS2, etc.
Pretty sure jRPGs biggest home last gen was on the DS, unless you're just limiting your scope to home consoles. In which case last gen was a really bad gen for jRPGs on home consoles
cause they were almost all on the DS
!

When is August NPD prediction thread?
Should be up some time on Friday.

ITT I learned that Microsoft is doomed because it doesn't have enough market share to draw titles like Dragon's Quest, but that's only because it didn't have Dragon's Quest, which it needed to have higher market share.
Dragon Quest doesn't matter in the U.S. to the general market. Microsoft is not losing any sleep about missing out on it, then.
Or was that the point you were trying to make?
 
Jan 28, 2014
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I took a quick look, but couldn't find any academic papers on the effects of software library on sales. I imagine it is way harder to research compared to the stuff I do have on exclusives boosting hardware sales or what not.
Phil Spencer already said market share doesn't matter, at least when it comes to 3rd party deals, and that he doesn't "goal" his team based on how many PS4s are sold. If he has no reason to care, why should we?
Because Microsoft has microsofts ready to load into your brain, so as soon as someone has a fully functioning SQUID or perhaps a nice pair of virtual light glasses they win. So why would they care about consoles? I wouldn't. Wetware wins, hands down. I mean yeah sure Ono-Sendai is ahead, but they don't care about games and Sony couldn't afford to buy them anyway. Neural induction hardware be cutting edge, after all.
 
May 23, 2013
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ITT I learned that Microsoft is doomed because it doesn't have enough market share to draw titles like Dragon's Quest, but that's only because it didn't have Dragon's Quest, which it needed to have higher market share.

I give up. Believe what you want.
I give up too haha.

This is a classic case of serversurfer thinking everyone on GAF is every gamer.

Shinra made some good points too. In fact he's put exactly what i'm trying to say into the right words.

Anyway, lets move on to a different topic. No point discussing this anymore.
 
Aug 31, 2013
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A given title being exclusive or being perceived as exclusive can be order winning, but by and large a myriad other factors likely supersede that if it's even a consideration at all.
See, I'm with you; I've always believed the System Seller to be largely a myth. People may wait for their favorite franchise to debut before jumping in, but most people like more than one thing, and everybody likes something different. So the more options you offer, the more people are going to choose you. It's not very complicated. Yes, other factors like what your friends have and various system features influence purchasing decisions as well, but having more games helps you, and having less games hurts you.

Then again, that would imply that XBox is doomed, so only a crazy fanboy would even suggest such a line of reasoning. Guess that proves all you need is CoD after all. /shrug
 
Sep 5, 2013
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What are peoples thoughts on Sony entering the Toys to Life market?

Perhaps starting with Ratchet & Clank to support the movie/game?
Think it would be a big mistake other than the usual skylanders and disney audience.

Locking content behind plastic toys will turn many people off. It does to me, no way will I ever purchase a plastic toy to unlock anything in a game.


My view is for the WiiU it just monetises existing fansbase, but does nothing for the console adoption (in fact its a negative)

I don't think it would succeed. Sony doesn't have the brand that Disney, LEGO, or Nintendo have, nor are they the originator like Skylanders is.
Its nothing to do with brand, its the type of gamer that plays wooly world might buy a cute toy. The gamer that plays GTA5 and COD is most likely not going to buy a toy.

GTA5 and COD is a bigger brand than any of the games you listed.

Cute games and toys for kids is a different market to action games for teens / adults....
 
Oct 1, 2011
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What are peoples thoughts on Sony entering the Toys to Life market?

Perhaps starting with Ratchet & Clank to support the movie/game?
There isn't a strong fanaticism behind any of their IPs that would make it successful. Nor do they have many IPs that would make the transition to toys very appealing.

The closest they've ever gotten is Invizimals.
 
Jan 13, 2009
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Toys to Life are very kid oriented and most kid oriented things Sony has tried have failed, like Wonderbook. I see the chances of them trying such a thing as being around 0%. It was a nice attempt at a subject change though.

Because Microsoft has microsofts ready to load into your brain, so as soon as someone has a fully functioning SQUID or perhaps a nice pair of virtual light glasses they win. So why would they care about consoles? I wouldn't. Wetware wins, hands down. I mean yeah sure Ono-Sendai is ahead, but they don't care about games and Sony couldn't afford to buy them anyway. Neural induction hardware be cutting edge, after all.
 
Feb 4, 2014
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What are peoples thoughts on Sony entering the Toys to Life market?

Perhaps starting with Ratchet & Clank to support the movie/game?
Think it would be a big mistake other than the usual skylanders and disney audience.

Locking content behind plastic toys will turn many people off. It does to me, no way will I ever purchase a plastic toy to unlock anything in a game.

My view is for the WiiU it just monetises existing fansbase, but does nothing for the console adoption
(in fact its a negative)
Exactly. PS4 don't need toys that locks content which is going to be expensive DLC for those who are not interested in Toys but need content. Wii U has user base who can go blindly for anything that Nintendo makes, so they are trying to monetize this weakness of gamers by locking content inside these toys which does nothing for gaming. If sony wants too do anything related to toys then do it in Collectors edition without locking any content behind toys for those who want to collect them.