Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
Simply Reggie is saying bullshits.
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wii-stockpilling : hints given by (arrogant ?) Reggie
- Thread starter Kenka
- Start date
FitzOfRage
Member
I always have to wonder, whenever people say the Wii doesn't have the lineup to clear whatever hurdle, how many of those people thought it had enough to get to where it is today?
It just seems a lot of times people that couldn't see the Wii's rise coming in the first place are the ones that set themselves up as the experts on how far the Wii can rise.
It just seems a lot of times people that couldn't see the Wii's rise coming in the first place are the ones that set themselves up as the experts on how far the Wii can rise.
Eh, I'm agreeing with the possible overestimating the GTA4 launch. The 360 and PS3 have still not reached real mainstream prices, and I'm talking about <$200. Yes, the Wii to me is not mainstream price, and gets off by telling everyone the wiimote+nunchuck technology is worth the extra $50, which it would be if you had to buy it seperately I suppose.
Anyway, that, and like the Halo 3 launch, it may end up being that a large amount of people buying the game may already have a 360 or PS3. It will push sales by a few hundred thousand, but then it would only last the month.
Same thing might happen to Smash, and to WiiFit to a possible degree. Both of them seem on opposite sides of the spectrum and will mostly just pull in people already on the fence.
Then Mario Kart Wii is rumored (or confirmed?) to be in June for NA now, and it's a game that very much appeals to both sides of the spectrum, so in my opinion it will pull in the most, especially since Mario Kart is such a known IP that it will be an ideal game for parents to buy for kids. Then again, if this game released in June, does it count anymore?
Also, guys, don't forget Wii Ware is in May as well (like that will sell extra Wiis...)
Whether or not Wii surpases 360 in the US by June, I'm betting they'll at least pass the 360 in the combined Americas. And once that has happened, the US will be the final front for this holiday season.
Anyway, that, and like the Halo 3 launch, it may end up being that a large amount of people buying the game may already have a 360 or PS3. It will push sales by a few hundred thousand, but then it would only last the month.
Same thing might happen to Smash, and to WiiFit to a possible degree. Both of them seem on opposite sides of the spectrum and will mostly just pull in people already on the fence.
Then Mario Kart Wii is rumored (or confirmed?) to be in June for NA now, and it's a game that very much appeals to both sides of the spectrum, so in my opinion it will pull in the most, especially since Mario Kart is such a known IP that it will be an ideal game for parents to buy for kids. Then again, if this game released in June, does it count anymore?
Also, guys, don't forget Wii Ware is in May as well (like that will sell extra Wiis...)
Whether or not Wii surpases 360 in the US by June, I'm betting they'll at least pass the 360 in the combined Americas. And once that has happened, the US will be the final front for this holiday season.
Holy Order Sol
Member
Crushed said:
Dear Crushed,
I'm hungry, please buy me a kebab.
(I remember someone mentioned that a while ago, but not that it was PA. Since I don't really like them, I'll refrain from using that joke from now on. Thanks for bringing this fact to my attention.)
Leon S. Kennedy
Member
I think PS3 will get a bigger bump than x360 from GTAIV even though the 360 has extra stuff. The install base for the 360 is largest and it has been out the longest. Most of the fence sitters who were leaning towards the 360 have already gotten one. The fence sitters leaning towards a PS3 will likely get one for GTAIV assuming there is a price drop. My point of this argument is that the 360 has a strong competitor for the exact same target consumer with the PS3. The wii has no competitor for its target consumer.
VictimOfGrief
Banned
So everyone is saying everything except SSB:B?
ViperVisor
Member
If supply isn't met to 90% of demand a year after it was clear Wii was a blockbuster they are an idiotic company and every stockholder should sell.
I really don't think so... though you never know. Honestly, and I know its anectdotal the reserves for GTAIV for the 360 far outweigh those for PS3... then you have the achievement whores. Really I think the achievement idea is one big reason software sells so well on the 360. Its also another reason why the 360's used game market is already so massive...Leon S. Kennedy said:
The wii thing I don't see happening, I do believe they are stockpiling for brawl and wiifit but thats just being smart. And to comment on Dark X's trolling, dude who gives a crap if you don't like Mario Kart Wii Fit or Brawl, there are quite a few people who do. Not everyone likes Ninja Gaiden or Devil may cry, you yourself are not indicitive of the state of Nintendo's software.
speculawyer
Member
Uh . . . does Reggie realize that GTA IV will be released during that time?
That may throw a spanner in his plan. Actually, since this is the NA market, it will be a monkey-wrench thrown in his plan.
That may throw a spanner in his plan. Actually, since this is the NA market, it will be a monkey-wrench thrown in his plan.
Leon S. Kennedy
Member
Jirotrom said:
I agree that the GTAIV x360 version will sell more than the PS3, but I 'speculate' that the PS3 will get more console sales from GTA. Wii is winning because the 360 and PS3 are too similar to each other. What did sony and microsoft add to their consoles other than bigger processors, fancier interface and wifi play (although xbox 1 already had wifi)?
Bending_Unit_22
Member
It's at least possible so Reggies isn't being completely insane here. As has been mentioned,
March - SSBB
April - Mario Kart? Everybody's Nintendo Channel?
May - Wii Fit, Wii Ware
June - Mario Kart? Everybody's Nintendo Channel? (giving Reggie a little room and assuming he meant end of June)
Wii production is 1.8 million a month with no need to stockpile, given that Brawl mania only pushed Japanese Wii sales to 300k a month they could probably do with 200k. However the remaining 1.5-1.6 million is divided between Europe and NA, that is a mountain of systems that could flood the US market. By the end of June it is possible for Nintendo to ship something like 3-4 million Wiis to NA
As for the 360, since Halo 3 and Bioshock along with multiple soon to release AAA titles only pushed 360 sales up around 200-300k last September, I don't think GTAIV would push so many systems that the Wii won't still be able to overtake the 360. A price cut would push many more systems than GTAIV but how many of those spikes have lasted more than a month? Since often times a price cut also reduces sales the month before the cut, again I wouldn't expect it to be such a huge effect that Wii couldn't overcome it. Assuming Nintendo floods the US with Wiis, the 360 would have to sustain 400-600k a month. That would be around 2-3x what is was selling last year at this time.
Who knows, Nintendo could have something we don't know about.
March - SSBB
April - Mario Kart? Everybody's Nintendo Channel?
May - Wii Fit, Wii Ware
June - Mario Kart? Everybody's Nintendo Channel? (giving Reggie a little room and assuming he meant end of June)
Wii production is 1.8 million a month with no need to stockpile, given that Brawl mania only pushed Japanese Wii sales to 300k a month they could probably do with 200k. However the remaining 1.5-1.6 million is divided between Europe and NA, that is a mountain of systems that could flood the US market. By the end of June it is possible for Nintendo to ship something like 3-4 million Wiis to NA
As for the 360, since Halo 3 and Bioshock along with multiple soon to release AAA titles only pushed 360 sales up around 200-300k last September, I don't think GTAIV would push so many systems that the Wii won't still be able to overtake the 360. A price cut would push many more systems than GTAIV but how many of those spikes have lasted more than a month? Since often times a price cut also reduces sales the month before the cut, again I wouldn't expect it to be such a huge effect that Wii couldn't overcome it. Assuming Nintendo floods the US with Wiis, the 360 would have to sustain 400-600k a month. That would be around 2-3x what is was selling last year at this time.
Who knows, Nintendo could have something we don't know about.
speculawyer
Member
Well, we also need to see if that $299 rumor is true. I sure hope it is . . . and it would make sense since the 360 needs to boost due to the BR format win and the PS3 beating the 360 in sales in January.gkrykewy said:
Metaphoreus
This is semantics, and nothing more
Whether or not we see a sales bump from Smash Bros or Wii Fit is going to be virtually impossible to determine. Already demand is greater than supply, so suppose that Wii sells 600,000+ in March. Can we definitely attribute that to Smash Bros., or would the 600,000 have sold regardless of what games were released? Until Nintendo can meet demand, there is no real way to determine if a game increased the console's sales.
domokunrox
Banned
Its my opinion that the PS3 hardware sales will benefit from GTA4, and xbox360 not so much.
You guys need to remember that the GTA3 games came out on PS2 first and it sold the most on PS2. If there is ANY fencesitters at the moment awaiting GTA4, where do you think they are going to go? PS3 or xbox360? Again, I believe they'll pick up 40gb PS3's.
That being said, Wii overtaking hardware in America by June is certainly plausible, considering the Megaton that is SSBB and the other Megaton that is Wii fit.
Either way, it doesn't matter because Nintendo is going to pass them up shortly thereafter anyways. You're simply not just going to get a spike in hardware sales for both SSBB and Wii fit, you're going to get consistant sales due to the massive ammount of buzz they have been getting.
You guys need to remember that the GTA3 games came out on PS2 first and it sold the most on PS2. If there is ANY fencesitters at the moment awaiting GTA4, where do you think they are going to go? PS3 or xbox360? Again, I believe they'll pick up 40gb PS3's.
That being said, Wii overtaking hardware in America by June is certainly plausible, considering the Megaton that is SSBB and the other Megaton that is Wii fit.
Either way, it doesn't matter because Nintendo is going to pass them up shortly thereafter anyways. You're simply not just going to get a spike in hardware sales for both SSBB and Wii fit, you're going to get consistant sales due to the massive ammount of buzz they have been getting.
Actually I (and a few others) knew about this since mid January, some knew as far back as late 07.. Anywho, with my personal experience, a Target employee informed me that Nintendo wasn't going to be putting out much if any wiis until March. She said that Nintendo told them that the reason was, they (Nintendo) were doing a huge stockpile.
2 days later Brawl was announced delayed until....yep, March
Of course the "official" reason put out was some bullsh** about making the game more complete.
I tried to tell some folks at IGN but apparently few believed me.
2 days later Brawl was announced delayed until....yep, March
Of course the "official" reason put out was some bullsh** about making the game more complete.
I tried to tell some folks at IGN but apparently few believed me.
Zaraki_Kenpachi
Member
"Its my opinion that the PS3 hardware sales will benefit from GTA4, and xbox360 not so much.
You guys need to remember that the GTA3 games came out on PS2 first and it sold the most on PS2. If there is ANY fencesitters at the moment awaiting GTA4, where do you think they are going to go? PS3 or xbox360? Again, I believe they'll pick up 40gb PS3's."
That's a pretty awful comparison. The gap between the install base of the ps2 and the xbox are similar to how 360 and ps3 are currently. Not to mention those were released on xbox a good while after it was released on ps2 and had a significantly smaller install base. 360 has a good deal bigger install base and people wont but another console just to play something that's multiplatform. New adopters maybe, but 360 is still selling so it's not going to be some slaughtering of the 360 at the hands of the ps3 like your trying to imply.
You guys need to remember that the GTA3 games came out on PS2 first and it sold the most on PS2. If there is ANY fencesitters at the moment awaiting GTA4, where do you think they are going to go? PS3 or xbox360? Again, I believe they'll pick up 40gb PS3's."
That's a pretty awful comparison. The gap between the install base of the ps2 and the xbox are similar to how 360 and ps3 are currently. Not to mention those were released on xbox a good while after it was released on ps2 and had a significantly smaller install base. 360 has a good deal bigger install base and people wont but another console just to play something that's multiplatform. New adopters maybe, but 360 is still selling so it's not going to be some slaughtering of the 360 at the hands of the ps3 like your trying to imply.
IMHO Reggie is smoking something if he thinks the Wii can outsell the 360 by that much of a margin for 5 consecutive months. A couple of times, maybe. Most certainly on the month when Smash releases, unless they fuck up supply again. At least GTA should stop them by raising 360 numbers over the "limit" though. But what do I know, really.
?
Paging Crushed! Crushed, please respond! We got one of them Satanists here!Kenka said:
Hrm. Können - ja. Sollen... eher nein. Oder willst Du, daß alle Japaner hier auf einmal mit Japanisch anfangen? 
domokunrox
Banned
Zaraki_Kenpachi said:
You heard it here first, man. I'll see you at the NPD thread for GTA4.
titiklabingapat
Member
Wii stock at retail have been really robust compared to January. Every other day, one retailer has them in stock.
tinfoilhatman
all of my posts are my avatar
The Wii is fun and all but unless they release an HD version with some kind of real digital surround sound I have absolutly zero interest. GameCube just burned me way to hard to go back to a Nintendo system.
Zaraki_Kenpachi
Member
"You heard it here first, man. I'll see you at the NPD thread for GTA4."
How well did DMC4 do between the platforms? That was a game that had never been on a microsoft system before. I still can't believe you make it sound like 360 version will sell nothing and ps3s will be going nuts.
How well did DMC4 do between the platforms? That was a game that had never been on a microsoft system before. I still can't believe you make it sound like 360 version will sell nothing and ps3s will be going nuts.
6/10. Not enough mention of casuals or non-games, better luck next time though!dark10x said:
With WiiFit and SSBB Wii is going to have some good months a head of it, it'll be pretty stupid of Nintendo not to make sure the systems are out there. I don't know about outselling the 360 by June, but I can see them getting close!
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
tinfoilhatman said:
this is a rilly gud observation that has absolutely nothing to do with this thread. unless you think that your opinion is what will prevent the momentum from ever changing hands.
norinrad21
Banned
Proven said:
I'm sorry but if you know something about Nintendo games, then you should know kart and Brawl will continue to sell until the end of the generation at full price and yes both will outsell H3.
Leon S. Kennedy
Member
Zaraki_Kenpachi said:
PS3 will likely get more of a hardware boost from GTAIV than 360 is all thats been said. Its already acknowledged that GTAIV will sell a lot more copies for the 360 than the PS3.
Core407 said:
Yes they really have been artifically limiting quantities, those bastards. Who gives a fuck if they make more consoles each month WW then Sony or Microsoft! Hey maybe they could even be combined and still not reach Wiis quantity for the month!
Dam Nintendo those artifical limiting pricks!
Zaraki_Kenpachi
Member
"PS3 will likely get more of a hardware boost from GTAIV than 360 is all thats been said. Its already acknowledged that GTAIV will sell a lot more copies for the 360 than the PS3."
It seemed like he kept changing his mind to me. Why would I be in the GTA4 npd thread when we are supposed to be looking at hardware sales? He didn't dispute anything so it seemed like I was correct in what I said before and it's not about just selling more he's talking about a clear cut difference and clear cut benefit of GTA4 for ps3 vs. the 360. Plus his whole thing about it selling more on ps2 is a bullshit reason.
It seemed like he kept changing his mind to me. Why would I be in the GTA4 npd thread when we are supposed to be looking at hardware sales? He didn't dispute anything so it seemed like I was correct in what I said before and it's not about just selling more he's talking about a clear cut difference and clear cut benefit of GTA4 for ps3 vs. the 360. Plus his whole thing about it selling more on ps2 is a bullshit reason.
tinfoilhatman said:
Considering that the Gamecube was one of the most powerful last gen, you probably wouldn't go back to Nintendo even if they made the most, or second most powerful system this gen. Great logic.
norinrad21 said:
Just based on what you quoted... huh?
Based against the entirety I posted, the argument here is whether or not they'll push sales of Wii consoles enough to surpass the 360 by June. Smash, Fit, Kart, and GTA will all sell gangbusters when we're all said and done with, but as we saw with the Halo 3 launch, just because you sell a lot of software with a new release doesn't also mean that you'll sell as much extra hardware, as many of the people buying could have already bought the consoles ahead of time.
Oh, and Zaraki, if you see someone you want to respond to, just click quote under their name in the post rather than just replay and copy paste.
norinrad21
Banned
LCGeek said:
heh
I think they can do it. For them, shipped= sold and if they can get the product out there, it will achieve the goal. I wouldnt call it arrogant, because the wii actually IS selling that crazy. Nintendo is traditionally conservative with their numbers, so no doubt they have some huge plans.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Maybe Reggie knows GTA4 is getting delayed to the fall?
domokunrox
Banned
Zaraki_Kenpachi said:
Look, you obviously didn't get it. You're trying to bring DMC4 into this. We don't even have NPD results for that. I don't even know why you bring up DMC4 anyway. GTA is a MUCH bigger game then that, so you can't compare the 2 anyway.
I didn't say the 360 version will sell nothing. It will sell, but it'll sell to the current install base and move relatively little in terms of hardware numbers, thus not keeping a lead in NA over the Wii for much longer.
Joe PS2 owner and megafan of GTAIII is going to hear about GTA4, and needs a next gen system, so he walks into Target, Wal-mart, or somewhere. What is he going to buy? Mind you, he owns a PS2, loved it for years and never did him no harm or made him unhappy.
You're going to convince me that hes going to pick up an xbox360?
Think about it, dude. I'm not arguing which copy of GTA4 will sell more. I'm arguing what copy is going to move consoles. Thus, going against the grain of the euthiestastic xbox owner that precious xbox360 will keep the lead in NA much longer.
Thats why I said that Wii taking the lead in June is "plausible", you get it now?
You might disagree, but hey we're not going to agree on everything. I'm over it, are you?
vanguardian1
poor, homeless and tasteless
Thunder Monkey said:
It's not like he's the only one expecting it.
incendiarycommittee
Neo Member
Is this Reggie's "June Surprise"?