Bam Bam Baklava
Member
You're right, we should all praise outlier polls instead. Because fuck statistics, we want sensationalism.
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New Quinnipiac Polls: Hillary leads Trump by 1 in FL, PA. Trump leads by 4 in OH
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You're right, we should all praise outlier polls instead. Because fuck statistics, we want sensationalism.
HillaryGAF right now:
Yep. Been saying for months the US left is marching blindly towards doom for no reason than they stubbornly decided their candidate years ago.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
You are aware Sanders, barely, and I mean BARELY, does better than her in these polls right?
Does that sound right to you? Sanders only winning Pennsylvania by 2 points?
I don't think even he knows what they are yet
You wanted her feet "held to the fire" on liberal issues, and this is one that she agreed with you on. I don't know what else you want her to do besides "idk I don't believe her."
If something went further than GS, you wouldn't actually need GS anymore because it would be rendered moot.
A trade war would, full stop, be detrimental to this country, especially working class people.
But please, continue.
JesseEwiak
Member
Oh come on, poor people having to pay insanely more for basic goods (ie. not just iPhones - China makes a lot of stuff) would be awesome!
The final result of national polls?This is actually around the time when national polls begin to diverge less and less from the final result in November according to Sam Wang.
Even then, this is a bit of a different animal no? Kinda poised to be an outlier I would think given the circumstance. It would certainly be interesting to get the data after this election is over and compare.
Republic of Ezo
Member
Because Glass-Steagall would likely create more economic damage than it would it would fix. Most of the six largest banks are combined investment and commercial banks so this bill would break them up as a matter of law, which could potentially imperil many workers at these companies. There is also no tangible proof that combining commercial and investment banks led to the 2007-2008 crisis. Nothing in Glass-Steagall prevented the creation of CDO's and Mortgage-Backed Securities (in fact, both flourished well before the Glass-Steagall repeal was ever signed). Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns were both investment banks only.
Passing a new Glass-Steagall could also make things more inconvenient for some consumers. For instance, I use a Charles Schwab account for both my checking and investments and can easily transfer my money between the two accounts since it's tied to one bank. Under Glass-Steagall this would be illegal.
Black Mamba
Member
And does THAT concern you?
I'm just going off of her attitude towards it for the entirety of her political career. Her switching positions on TV one time when a guy is pressing her for an answer doesn't mean much to me. Rescheduling is also not legalization. It is far, far, far, far, far, far from it. It needs to be fully legalized so that businesses in my state and others can use proper baking services. There's a huge market there.
Because China would stop buying all of our stuff? Anything we get from them, we can make.
It would also make it harder for low-income people to get into debt by having their bank 'cover' them with a credit card for purchases they don't have money for, and many other things.
After seeing a democratic debate (this was when there were still three of them) I realised he was just as bad. My main point is that theres a lot of people who don't want to stand against Hilary.
Not saying there is an obvious candidate but a lack of focus and arrogance has lead to what you would expect to happen - other candidates putting their head in for the candidacy. Except people were too ready to expect she'd walk over anyone.
Shes unliked, untrusted and the arrogance of 'lol demographics' has been a negative trait of dems for a while. Its not suddenly Trump is unliked, people just decided the Dems could win by statistical nonsense (minorities are minorities - sorry but its in the name) and so who was candidate didn't matter.
Would be interested to see Romney's exit poll share of minorities vs Trumps polling
Like I've said.. years from now, we're going to get rulings where her justices are instrumental in killing Citizens United, weakening or removing corporate personhood, etc etc.. and there will still be folks going, "yeah, but.. I don't trust her intentions."
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
What do you think is going to happen to the price of a kids toy when the person making it is being payed 800% more than the same worker in China?
That's great for you, but for all the employees and businesses that actually need their iPhones for work, somehow I think a 10-fold price increase might be somewhat cost-prohibitive.
DR2K
Banned
There's really no point in engaging with that type of mentality. All we can do is hope our education system going forward produces less people like Trump and his supporters.
Wow this is just incredibly naive. Americans are going to just love paying higher prices for almost everything they buy now. That sure is going to go over well.
Hexa
Member
Rapid advancements in automation technology and massive increases in usage.
Because 'the American people' are never wrong!
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
These polls aren't this way because Trump is doing better with minorities, they are the way they are because the share of minorities has been weighted, inexplicably, as lower than 2012.
It's disappointing to see so many people fall for outlier polls because they are always the ones that get the most attention. Polling is a business where accuracy is actually a bad thing because no one cares about the status quo polls, they want sensationalism.
It will cost a lot more to the consumer. Continuing to buy devalued stuff from China is not a viable option, either.
Republic of Ezo
Member
What? How is this tied to combining investment and commercial banks? Commercial banks both issue credit cards and give out loans.
And I'm all for stringent financial regulation and an active CFPB. My mom is a major financial regulator for NYS. The commerical-investment split just seems like an arbitrary point to get hung up on when, again, there is no evidence that it caused the crash.
It is for people with a low income.
Black Mamba
Member
You're basically arguing you want the Standard of Living in the United States to plummet.
We'd have less stuff but it would be quality, American-made stuff.
Seriously though, we can't have our cake and eat it too. We can't keep buying all this cheap stuff forever with no consequence.
Sweet baby Jesus....
You do understand that unstable price hikes like that would completely crash the global economy right?
Trump's economic ideas are batshit insane.
This is clearly shite. Polling Companies are not purely for elections and their ability to publicise valid and correct polls are very important to their reputation.
Fenderputty
Banned
I personally think the idea that we could just bring back manufacturing after slowly shedding manufacturing jobs over the course decades is fucking hilarious.
EDIT: And now I've done what I said I wouldn't do. Time to go shoot up.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Their final polls certainly, because those are what they are measured by, but a meaningless poll 6 months out from the election that gets you tons of publicity? Let's talk.
Also, you're clearly forgetting a shyster named Zogby.
Black Mamba
Member
So you want us to start building shit here again even though those are not the jobs of the future (hello automation) instead of continuing to expand our service economy.
Maybe we should all just go back to farming, instead?
And who cares is the poor and working class get screwed by it?
Like communes and stuff? I could get behind that.
The poor and working class have been getting screwed by our trade deals for 20 years
Black Mamba
Member
Exponentially jacking up the prices of essential goods screws them even worse. You've made things more expensive with no way to offset those price increases.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
oh god I've been trolled again haven't I.
We all have.
exmachina64
Banned
You're either trolling or have no understanding of economics.
Thanks for poisoning the conversation, if it's the former.
Its the blanket statement that is problematic I think he is saying
There are plenty of reputable polling outlets that try and do good work, because they want to be used by potential clients that value accuracy. Most pollsters make their money from private clients, political polling is where many build their brand and so being accurate is actually a very high priority for most outlets looking to build up a large flow of private clients.
Of course there are the handful that are deliberately catering to certain niches where skewing polls makes sense for them(Hello Rasmussen, Zogby) and some are just trash even if they try not to be(Gallup somewhat but mostly for recent elections).
So I think for MOST polling outlets, there is little to gain for intentionally being inaccurate for headlines.
As for Quinnipiac, I think Nate Silver had them ranked with a very slight Republican bias in 14 but they weren't the most egregious pollster but that could of changed, or I could be mistaken, so I don't 100% stand by that.
says facts
They are ready for a downgrade in that rating
Sooooo.....we're going to start citing FOX News polls now (even though everything from FOX News is -- rightly -- treated like garbage here)?
Where is this information coming from, BTW?
Black Mamba
Member
Fox New polls are actually pretty accurate. Fox News doesn't conduct the polls, they pay others to do it.
And IIRC, they use a two-firm approach, with one Dem leaning and one GOP leaning to combine to make the polls.
Fox News is a POS but they care about accuracy in their polls surprisingly.
JesseEwiak
Member
I think the point is a polling company might throw out a poll that shows Trump only down 2 on October 31st, but they might be OK with the extra coverage they might get in mid-May.
FOX News polls are fine - how FOX News may push them may be shitty, but the actual pollsters are OK. They're not Rasmussen.
As for where the stats are from - http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...-which-matter-and-who-was-most-underestimated
gutter_trash
Banned
Venezuela is one heck of a success story
Fox News generally hires decent pollsters.
For a small handful of niche seeking pollsters, sure, they may deliberately construct a misleading poll for a number of reasons. We kinda know the usual suspects and Quinn seems to be among the less accurate pollsters it would seem in recent times. But for the majority? No, they won't. There is no incentive to do so unless you are chasing exclusively niche clients that want a corrupt or partisan pollster.
Punchy4486
Banned
The point was that the "DNC" isn't supporting anyone that the American people aren't. The implication I was responding to is that the DNC wasn't following the will of the people. They are. And the will of the people is Hillary.
Also, democracy!
Sanders is a better candidate than Hillary in the two key swing states that he lost to Hillary in by good margins?
Frankly I am hard pressed to see how anyone can think what he said at this point. Especially assuming IF(and I mean that as a big if because being a prisoner of the moment gets you in trouble this far out) but IF the Republicans continue to remain so divided and we continue to see the sort of lesser of two evils mentality within conservative ranks thats pushing some to get behind Hillary - even if reluctantly - that could be a pretty big boost in a number of areas that Sanders just wouldn't of gotten.
One that could have the potential to help Dems win more seats AND may have a chance to actually relieve some of the deadlock in congress if Clinton can use her beltway cunning to capitalize on the bi-partisan support and backing she is getting. The latter is a long shot but if it had been Bernie this sort of scenario would of been pretty much a pipe dream.
Hmm. I always figured that FOX would be the least accurate. I don't think I've cited them for any reason. Ever. And if I wanted to, I always used another pollster to confirm their results.
gutter_trash
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