reggieandTFE
Member
Are there any great Christie Bridge-Gate threads where the 'Christie did nothing wrong' folks can be called out? 
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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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PhoenixDark
Banned
Are there any great Christie Bridge-Gate threads where the 'Christie did nothing wrong' folks can be called out?
It'll be very interesting to see if Wildstein has evidence that Christie knew he gave approval. His attorney claims he does. Regardless the fact that people so close to Christie did this tells me there was a very ugly atmosphere within the governor's office, an atmosphere that made these people think Christie would be cool with this. And it fits the comment from the other mayor who claimed her city was also punished. He must have done this before, and his crew knew what he wanted.
Get real, Christie wont be charged with anything. Even if he did get charged, he was never gonna be the nominee anyway. Christie had his chance and blew it in 2012.
Same goes for Huckabee, Santorum etc. We will see if Jeb missed his chance this time though I still believe he will be the nominee but ultimately lose.
Huckabee, Fiorina and Carson announce Monday and Tuesday.
Same goes for Huckabee, Santorum etc. We will see if Jeb missed his chance this time though I still believe he will be the nominee but ultimately lose.
Huckabee, Fiorina and Carson announce Monday and Tuesday.
They deserve those perks. Because, yknow, boot straps.
Are there any great Christie Bridge-Gate threads where the 'Christie did nothing wrong' folks can be called out?
The really fascinating thing about this is that, knowing what Wildstein knew, Christie still held a press conference to deny that he ever knew anything about it. I don't really understand what his plan was to get away with that.
RustyNails
Member
Yooo
RustyNails
Member
Wait, correct me if I'm wrong. I thought that Chris Christie knew about the lane closures and he admitted as much (in that 2 hour presser)? But what he didn't know was that it wasn't about a traffic study.
I might be misremembering, but I don't think Wildstein saying "Christie knew about lane closures" is the smoking gun we're waiting for.
I might be misremembering, but I don't think Wildstein saying "Christie knew about lane closures" is the smoking gun we're waiting for.
Tom Wolf, Pa. governor, says he’ll set up Obamacare exchange if Supreme Court strikes subsidies
I really hope Kennedy and Roberts do the right thing so it doesn't come to this.
I really hope Kennedy and Roberts do the right thing so it doesn't come to this.
Yeah there is, Hillary.
Yellowtail
Member
New Iowa Poll!
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...op-field-in-iowa-walker-leads-other-dems.html
Clinton 45%/Bush 42%
Clinton 48%/Carson 41%
Clinton 45%/Christie 40%
Clinton 49%/Cruz 42%
Clinton 46%/Huckabee 44%
Clinton 45%/Paul 43%
Clinton 48%/Perry 41%
Clinton 46%/Rubio 44%
Clinton 48%/ Walker 41%
Please let Walker be the nominee.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...op-field-in-iowa-walker-leads-other-dems.html
Clinton 45%/Bush 42%
Clinton 48%/Carson 41%
Clinton 45%/Christie 40%
Clinton 49%/Cruz 42%
Clinton 46%/Huckabee 44%
Clinton 45%/Paul 43%
Clinton 48%/Perry 41%
Clinton 46%/Rubio 44%
Clinton 48%/ Walker 41%
Please let Walker be the nominee.
On second thought.. it's what day 2 of his campaign? Probably too early to call it a train at this point but it is a very impressive start.
Yellowtail
Member
Ron Paul got $4 million in his first 24 hours. Plus ça change...
One way Sanders could help Hillary: independents will be more like to participate in the NH Democratic primary (and other open primary states) instead of the GOP one, increasing the chance someone like Walker will win instead of Bush
One way Sanders could help Hillary: independents will be more like to participate in the NH Democratic primary (and other open primary states) instead of the GOP one, increasing the chance someone like Walker will win instead of Bush
cooljeanius
Member
I need to get on it...
I just signed up and donated $10. I'll probably donate some more in the future when I can afford it and I'll definitely be out volunteering for his campaign if possible once primary season actually kicks in.
RustyNails
Member
Strange lack of diablosing on these recent poll numbers.
Btw how was Obamma polling against Mitt and friends in mid 2011?
Someone who will toe their line to the letter if he gets elected. It's that simple, they don't want a conservative in the White House, they want a puppet. They're only backing the GOP because they're hugely pro-business and anti-labor.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I assume Walker's name recognition isn't that high.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
I'm not really sure how the GOP can win the election if they don't sweep VA, OH and FL.
Michigan is not going to swing right dude :lol
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Wikipedia has a good database of polls for questions like that. Here are links for 2012 and 2016.
March-May 31st, 2011 Obama v Romney:
Rasmussen Reports - Obama +5
Reuters/Ipsos - Obama +13
Suffolk University - Obama + 3
The Economist/YouGov - Obama +3
PPP - Obama +7
Washington Post-ABC - Tied
March-May 2nd, 2015 Hillary v Jeb:
Fox News - Hillary +4
Quinnipiac University - Hillary +7
CNN/ORC - Hillary +17
Public Policy Polling - Hillary +6
ABC News/Washington Post - Hillary +12
I wonder how long it will be until one of them ends up overtaking her in the polls. I assume after the nominee is chosen next Spring?
Hobbestetrician
Member
I think he meant in this universe.
It is significantly more likely that the GOP will win VA, FL and OH than it is that they'd flip MI, WI, IA, PA, CO, NM, NV.
Stop trying to make Pennsylvania happen, Gretchen.
I know it wont. I was just giving him a wild unlikely scenario where they dont need those 3. Obvious they need a combo of 2 or 3 of those to stand a chance. I played around with the map though and I now truly know why FL is a do or die state for the GOP. NM+FL give the Dems 270 without the need for WI, IA, NV or CO. The only time WI, IA, NV, & CO matter is if the GOP sweep OH, VA & FL otherwise the EC path is much more expanded for the Democrats.
Metaphoreus
This is semantics, and nothing more
benji sends his love:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCueO9fSDXs
He also may have mentioned that he's seen the light, and will be voting for Mike Huckabee in next year's presidential election.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCueO9fSDXs
He also may have mentioned that he's seen the light, and will be voting for Mike Huckabee in next year's presidential election.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
lol he used ISIS's own video in his announcement, and put it up on may day
Not even a convention bounce or a late "coming home" effect from Republican and Republican leaning independents?
I'd bet she sees more of a bump from Bill's speech than from her own. Especially if he gives a speech like the one he gave for Obama in '12. But we're polarized to the point where the era of gigantic poll bounces is gone. She might see a few points, but nothing earth-shaking.
That, and the conventions are obscenely early next year. The bounces will be long-forgotten before Labor Day arrives.
That, and the conventions are obscenely early next year. The bounces will be long-forgotten before Labor Day arrives.
RustyNails
Member
So I guess polls a year and half out are generally a good indicator of who is likely to win.
But that reuters/ipsos poll tho. Mitt probably shat bricks.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
In some ways, it's almost more pure now then once we get to the point when every week there's a new thing that changes the whole race that everyone is talking about, but will be completely forgotten by the next week when there's a new shiney "game changer" to attach to.
Well what about debates? Remember the game changing infamous first debate between obama and romney? Romney won that first debate but the needle didnt moved much in the Obama team's polling. I wonder if a bad performance changes minds or the people who watch them generally know by then who they are gonna pull the lever for. The dynamic of early voting by then seems to dilute the influence debates used to have.
Mark Halprin will create another one of his McCain prediction gaffes and Joe Scarborough will probably be eating crow if Hillary wins. The guy really thinks she wont be the next President but will support most likely Jeb in a heartbeat despite ripping into his "dynasty" aspect & the Republicans for nominating Bush's in an OpEd on Politico a few months ago.
Oh and did I forget to mention the "magic wall" from CNN's John King?
The general consensus among political scientists is that debates don't matter. Take that first Obama vs. Romney debate, Obama sank in the polls for about a week before recovering to about where he was.
Campaigns themselves even, generally don't matter. The efforts of each side cancel each other out. The relative skill of each party's campaign only seems to matter once every handful of elections, where the fundamentals say it's going to be close. 1976, 2000, and 2004 are about the only ones in the past 50 years where a better campaign could've made the difference.
Yup. I tend to agree with this. By the time the debates arrive, a large portion of the electorate has its mind made up. People freaked-out over that first Obama-Romney debate, but it didn't change things very much at all. 538's victory probability dipped a little bit (from what I can recall), but Obama still retained a healthy edge.
I'm really starting to believe that defining the opponent early makes a big difference. Bush was able to label Kerry early-on. Obama was able to define Romney really early in the Summer/Spring, and it seems like it stabilized the race for the rest of the way. If Hillary's smart, she'll get on TV in Spring 2016 as soon as the GOP race is over (or maybe even once they're down to just two remaining candidates) so that she can get an early label job done on them. As soon as the nominee does anything notable to verify her paint job (Romney's 47% moment), her narrative of him is confirmed in many voters' minds and the polls resist changing dramatically. Inertia.
At least, that's my hunch. Lucky for Hillary, she's pretty well-defined.. and the GOP candidates will be too busy tearing the crap out of each other to return the favor.
If Dukakis had ran a better campaign instead getting destroyed in the later half he could have won in 1988. Other than that and the close 1960 & 1948 elections, the rest were mostly blowouts for either side so I agree.
In fact, 1988 is very relevant to this election and the model for Clinton next year. I just dont see any Republican other than possibly Bush and Rubio mounting a "better campaign" scenario that would make the difference in defeating Hillary and even then that might not be enough since campaign of yesterday are so different compared to now. Walker will be Dukakised.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
I do wonder what the main attacks against Jeb will be. Last time he held office was nearly 10 years ago, and has basically been in hiding ever since, every once in a while popping up to say something something safe and moderate.
He already looks like a bigot that looks down on gay people (calling it sodemy and a sacrament), women (suggesting women get married instead of going on welfare), and black people (pro-mass incarceration, said "probably wouldn't do anything" about helping black people as governor), while forcing his beliefs on others (Terri Schiavo).
I bet Jeb will give her a lot of new ammo along those lines as he starts having to talk more. He seems to have a history of being particularly bad when addressing anything that has to do with race or gender inequality, and I wonder if they'll be able to coach him through overcoming that weakness. Like how Romney was able to talk about being anti-marriage equality by focusing on the tradition of marriage, instead of outright demonizing gay people. Jeb Bush almost seems to want to take the opposite route of scaling back on wanting to strictly define marriage, while scaling up on the opposition of homosexuality itself.
If Hillary starts really addressing mass incarceration and pay equality as large platforms, Jeb could be particularly unsuited towards answering those questions.
Ehhh, I don't think Dukakis ever had a chance, despite what the huge post-convention polling bump said.
]
Economically Bush '88 was forecasted to get ~54% of the vote on both GDP growth and per capital income growth measures. Reagan wasn't unpopular. A better candidate than Dukakis might could've lost by less, but Bush had a nearly 8 point margin and electoral college advantage that was rather insurmountable.
JesseEwiak
Member
Santorum's weird, in the sense that he was the only Republican in the '12 race actually talking about the loss of working class jobs in the GOP race (even if many of his suggestions were Republican boiler plate, aside from some giveaways to manufacturers), was largely agnostic on abortion 'til he ran for Congress (he claims he was convinced of by his doctor father-in-law), and so on, and so forth.
Honestly, I think he's actually the most honest of the Republican candidates, so like actual real people, he sometimes has weird odd opinions. I mean, his actual statement was still framed in the "hate the sin, love the sinner" kind of way and gave the states rights answer on transgender bathrooms, so it's not like he's evolved that far. Plus, on the 'attending a family member's gay wedding', I think ever Republican got a phone call from Karl Rove or somebody like that after that question blew up to say, "just say yes. Don't care how you really feel, but there's no damn way to spin a no answer. So just grin, say yes, and move on."
There's evidence that once you dig into GDP growth and all that showing Kerry actually did run closer than expected against Bush. Remember, Iraq hadn't blown up quite yet, the economy was still humming along in the shaky Potemkin way most people can't tell is false, and there were no major scandals.
Yeah I knew when I was writing that that 2004 was kind of iffy. 2004 wasn't as close nationally as 2000, but Kerry still only needed one State. I wonder if a ground team as good as Obama's could have made up the 2 points needed in Ohio.
I love Bernie Sanders, think it's great that he's running. Of course, should he somehow actually get the nomination... that would be terrible.
Black Republican
Member
Politico says the Bmore riots may have hurt OMalley
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/...leys-already-slim-chances-117545.html?hp=r3_3
what do you say?
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/...leys-already-slim-chances-117545.html?hp=r3_3
what do you say?
JesseEwiak
Member
What, he'll get 4% instead of 8% in Iowa?
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