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[SuperBowser]

I'm not getting a disaster vibe from that list. In fact it feels like par for the course for a first meeting: "you can't make us pay", "ok no trade deal". Those are the expected initial positions from both sides, right? That's where you negotiate from.

I'm concerned because of the tone May has set. It seems clear she wants to play hard deal: comply to all her (unreasonable) demands or nothing. That's not going to go well.

 

[Plasma]

source

A rundown of what happened during the disastrous dinner between May and Juncker. Wheels seem to be coming off the Brexit wagon. It becomes ever more clear why this election was called.

I'm just shocked she didn't spend the whole dinner saying "Strong and Stable" over and over.

 

[KingSnake]

Not paying your debt is not a start of a negotiation, it's a deal breaker. Any negotiation involves some level of trust. Any deal assumes a level of good will. None of this is there when you don't honour your previous promises.

You can argue on the amount to be paid and check every figure, but not paying is not a negotiation.

 

[Real Hero]

the fact she is as robotic and shallow in the actually important meetings as she is to the public is pretty scary.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

I'm just shocked she didn't spend the whole dinner saying "Strong and Stable" over and over.

And Juncker didn't get drunk and try to pinch May's arse. Not bad all things considered!

 

[Chinner]

the fact she is as robotic and shallow in the actually important meetings as she is to the public is pretty scary.

I want someone to make a pullstring doll of May with all of her memorable catchphrases.

 

[theaface]

I'm not getting a disaster vibe from that list. In fact it feels like par for the course for a first meeting: "you can't make us pay", "ok no trade deal". Those are the expected initial positions from both sides, right? That's where you negotiate from.

It's ok, Quiche. You can say you made a mistake in voting leave. You are forgiven. You don't need to feign optimism anymore. Embrace the shambles for what it is.

I want someone to make a pullstring doll of May with all of her memorable catchphrases.

"What this dolls' house really needs is strong and stable leadership so that we can negotiate the best furniture not just for the master bedroom, but for the cupboard under the stairs as well."

 

[PJV3]

Not paying your debt is not a start of a negotiation, it's a deal breaker. Any negotiation involves some level of trust. Any deal assumes a level of good will. None of this is there when you don't honour your previous promises.

You can argue on the amount to be paid and check every figure, but not paying is not a negotiation.

It's not like there's load of time for negotiating fantasy positions either, if May is still acting like this after the election then it's going very wrong.

 

[Chinner]

It's ok, Quiche. You can say you made a mistake in voting leave. You are forgiven. You don't need to feign optimism anymore. Embrace the shambles for what it is.

I hear on the flip side is that Cornwall will become the next Spain. Word on the street is that you can actually get a weeks worth of hot weather spread out over several months, depending if we may the weather great again (awaiting referendum results).

 

[jimbobsmells]

Playing devils advocate (read wishful thinking) here, but if the election is May's way of sidelining hard Brexit MPs by counting on a landslide majority, then she won't need to pander to them - and critically the MSM so much. She might think this is her way out of the proverbial rock and hard place she finds herself between. Edit: that's why I'm hoping this really is all brinkmanship now, and following the election our stance softens.
If it allows her to push through her Authortarian changes then that's a great bonus (for her, certainly not for the rest of us).
I'm betting it's just going to be another 'Cameron moment' like the Brexit vote itself though.

 

[PJV3]

It's ok, Quiche. You can say you made a mistake in voting leave. You are forgiven. You don't need to feign optimism anymore. Embrace the shambles for what it is.

They have set the bar for success so low that Brexit cannot fail. May has the sky falling in as a measurement.

 

[Dougald]

Lib Dem literature around here seems to be playing up the "stop hard brexit" angle. They also printed Farrons "no coalition" statement.

Be interested to see what line the Conservatives take. This is a safe Tory seat and John Redwood is very much a Brexiteer, but the constituency did marginally vote for remain.

 

[Jezbollah]

Lib Dem literature around here seems to be playing up the "stop hard brexit" angle. They also printed Farrons "no coalition" statement.

Be interested to see what line the Conservatives take. This is a safe Tory seat and John Redwood is very much a Brexiteer, but the constituency did marginally vote for remain.

I think the LDs should straight up park their Bus into the hard no-Brexit park. Ultra hard. Straight up reject the Referendum and recommit to the EU, revocation of Article 50 (If this is possible..) - I think they'll get way more voters than they lose.

 

[Roberto Larcos]

I think the LDs should straight up park their Bus into the hard no-Brexit park. Ultra hard. Straight up reject the Referendum and recommit to the EU, revocation of Article 50 (If this is possible..) - I think they'll get way more voters than they lose.

They'll lose the westcountry forever. You need seats to have influence.

 

[JonnyDBrit]

Lib Dem literature around here seems to be playing up the "stop hard brexit" angle. They also printed Farrons "no coalition" statement.

Be interested to see what line the Conservatives take. This is a safe Tory seat and John Redwood is very much a Brexiteer, but the constituency did marginally vote for remain.

Given what my MP - Alok Sharma - had to say on the matter, they'll probably stress that it was the national result, and promise trade with the likes of India. Maybe claim that the Thames Valley has proven lucrative enough to international businesses as is, so surely, not being restricted by the EU will be all for the better!

 

[xandaca]

Both sides are acting like children. Many of May's positions seem unrealistic and her cabinet has responded idiotically to every minor provocation (Gibraltar especially) and had no coherent message or timetable on what it wants to achieve, while the EU is doing exactly what it did before it marched into Greece: lots of leaks, timed to influence an election, about how unreasonable the other side is and acting like the aggrieved party, and demands they be given everything they want before 'real' negotiations start. It's in no-one's interest not to have a deal worked out and if both sides were reasonable, there certainly seem to be compromises that would leave each with some form of 'victory' they can take back to their PR teams. Unfortunately, both appear to be playing the same all-or-nothing game right now, knowing their respective audiences will believe anything they say to be completely reasonable and everything the other side says totally unfair. Hopefully both will soften sooner rather than later, without either capitulating to the other. For everyone criticising, often rightly, May's conduct, they're happily ignoring the EU behaving in exactly the same way. Regardless, the most sensible thing May can do is work out a fall-back plan for how to mitigate the effects of leaving with no deal (where to reallocate the ~£6.5bn p/a we won't be paying into the EU budget, lowering business rates, how to reintegrate the British immigrants the EU might choose to punish, rights for EU citizens over here, etc). I don't think it'll come to that, but we should learn from not having a Brexit plan pre-referendum and at least have a basic map for the least desirable outcome on the table. Hopefully the bickering and sniping will stop sooner rather than later, though, even if it'd be against the run of play for both sides.

 

[Dougald]

Given what my MP - Alok Sharma - had to say on the matter, they'll probably stress that it was the national result, and promise trade with the likes of India. Maybe claim that the Thames Valley has proven lucrative enough to international businesses as is, so surely, not being restricted by the EU will be all for the better!

All I can say about international business and Brexit is I'm glad I'm no longer working for a company using the Thames Valley as their gateway to the single market

 

[Frankfurter]

Both sides are acting like children. Many of May's positions seem unrealistic and her cabinet has responded idiotically to every minor provocation (Gibraltar especially) and had no coherent message or timetable on what it wants to achieve, while the EU is doing exactly what it did before it marched into Greece: lots of leaks, timed to influence an election, about how unreasonable the other side is and acting like the aggrieved party, and demands they be given everything they want before 'real' negotiations start. It's in no-one's interest not to have a deal worked out and if both sides were reasonable, there certainly seem to be compromises that would leave each with some form of 'victory' they can take back to their PR teams. Unfortunately, both appear to be playing the same all-or-nothing game right now, knowing their respective audiences will believe anything they say to be completely reasonable and everything the other side says totally unfair. Hopefully both will soften sooner rather than later, without either capitulating to the other. For everyone criticising, often rightly, May's conduct, they're happily ignoring the EU behaving in exactly the same way. Regardless, the most sensible thing May can do is work out a fall-back plan for how to mitigate the effects of leaving with no deal (where to reallocate the ~£6.5bn p/a we won't be paying into the EU budget, lowering business rates, how to reintegrate the British immigrants the EU might choose to punish, rights for EU citizens over here, etc). I don't think it'll come to that, but we should learn from not having a Brexit plan pre-referendum and at least have a basic map for the least desirable outcome on the table. Hopefully the bickering and sniping will stop sooner rather than later, though, even if it'd be against the run of play for both sides.

How is the EU acting in the same way? Just give a couple examples please.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I think the LDs should straight up park their Bus into the hard no-Brexit park. Ultra hard. Straight up reject the Referendum and recommit to the EU, revocation of Article 50 (If this is possible..) - I think they'll get way more voters than they lose.

The Liberal Democrats aren't a national party any more and I think strategically the best thing to do for them is to ignore national political debates. Even if there were loads of 'hard Remain' voters all over the country, and they're looking for a party, they'll look at the last election's results, and realise that the Liberal Democrats are probably irrelevant in their seat, so it doesn't matter anyway. Bluntly speaking, before they can sit at the big boy table, the Liberal Democrats need to rebuild, and get enough MPs together to potentially influence another party; and that rebuilding process means focusing on constituencies on a constituency-by-constituency basis. If they're thinking nationally, they're thinking too big. People don't like wasting votes and until the Liberal Democrats can show they're a real presence again across multiple constituencies, nobody cares what their position is.

What the Liberal Democrats need to do is say: here are our top marginal targets, of which there are 16 they can take on a 5% swing (that is, a 10% shift in the vote). Anything more than that is, in a GE context rather than a byelection, fantasy politics.

If we look at those seats:

Cambridge
Eastbourne
Lewes
Thornbury and Yate
Twickenham
Dunbartonshire East
Kingston and Surbiton
St Ives
Edinburgh West
Torbay
Sutton and Cheam
Bath
Burnley
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Yeovil
Fife North East

I have bolded the ones which voted Leave, and italicised those which are Scottish. That's 9 out of the Lib Dem's top 16 target seats voting majority Leave (and 9 out of 13 of their English target seats)! Or, in other words: if the Liberal Democrats became the party of Hard Remain, they would almost certainly do worse than if they accepted Brexit and focused on holding the government to account on how Brexit happened.

I think the Lib Dems know this, which is why you have Farron currently trying to have his cake and eat it - bash Labour for being insufficiently pro-EU while having functionally exactly the same policy set. But that's just muddling their message. I think their pro-EU focus is going to hold them back, and my personal prediction for them is about 15-16 seats based on how they're currently performing as a result.

EDIT: also, bluntly speaking, they need more talent. Farron's unpopularity when accounting for DK is comparable to Corbyn's, Corbyn just has a higher profile and therefore a greater number of people aware of him to dislike him. But right now, they have, what, 8 people to choose from, and some of those are even in marginal seats they could then lose, so there's very little choice at all. Again, before they can think big, they need to focus on winning local battles by focusing on local politics until they can find a new leader and a new relevancy.

 

[PJV3]

Both sides are acting like children. Many of May's positions seem unrealistic and her cabinet has responded idiotically to every minor provocation (Gibraltar especially) and had no coherent message or timetable on what it wants to achieve, while the EU is doing exactly what it did before it marched into Greece: lots of leaks, timed to influence an election, about how unreasonable the other side is and acting like the aggrieved party, and demands they be given everything they want before 'real' negotiations start. It's in no-one's interest not to have a deal worked out and if both sides were reasonable, there certainly seem to be compromises that would leave each with some form of 'victory' they can take back to their PR teams. Unfortunately, both appear to be playing the same all-or-nothing game right now, knowing their respective audiences will believe anything they say to be completely reasonable and everything the other side says totally unfair. Hopefully both will soften sooner rather than later, without either capitulating to the other. For everyone criticising, often rightly, May's conduct, they're happily ignoring the EU behaving in exactly the same way. Regardless, the most sensible thing May can do is work out a fall-back plan for how to mitigate the effects of leaving with no deal (where to reallocate the ~£6.5bn p/a we won't be paying into the EU budget, lowering business rates, how to reintegrate the British immigrants the EU might choose to punish, rights for EU citizens over here, etc). I don't think it'll come to that, but we should learn from not having a Brexit plan pre-referendum and at least have a basic map for the least desirable outcome on the table. Hopefully the bickering and sniping will stop sooner rather than later, though, even if it'd be against the run of play for both sides.

I think you're mixing up individual nations and the EU, Spain has an issue with Gibraltar and could scupper the whole deal, the EU and other nations found a way round it.

 

[xandaca]

How is the EU acting in the same way? Just give a couple examples please.

while the EU is doing exactly what it did before it marched into Greece: lots of leaks, timed to influence an election, about how unreasonable the other side is and acting like the aggrieved party, and demands they be given everything they want before 'real' negotiations start.

See the leaks about Junker's meeting with May. That's no more the behaviour of a courteous negotiating partner than any of May and her cabinet's bluster and bulls**t. As mentioned, it's the same sort of tactic as used when the EU were 'negotiating' with Syriza (Greece).

I think you're mixing up individual nations and the EU, Spain has an issue with Gibraltar and could scupper the whole deal, the EU and other nations found a way round it.

On one hand, you have the EU saying they're negotiating as a bloc; one the other, Spain gets special privileges as to where the trade deal applies. Spain can indeed scupper a deal, as any individual member can, but they'd have fallen into line if the EU had told them to. It's a sensible enough leveraging of a position of weakness for the UK, but let's stop pretending the EU is coming at this from the position of the kindly benefactor of its citizens. Gibraltar being on the table might help the EU gain a foot-up in negotiating for the short-term, but as with most things, neither side benefits from the border either being closed or heavily controlled: Spain's economy is close to the tank and benefits from having 30k+ people crossing the border to employment in Gibraltar (meaning more unemployment and unrest if those people had to quit), while the UK obviously benefits from that economy being prosperous and being seen to 'protect' its territory.

 

[Moobabe]

The Liberal Democrats aren't a national party any more and I think strategically the best thing to do for them is to ignore national political debates. Even if there were loads of 'hard Remain' voters all over the country, and they're looking for a party, they'll look at the last election's results, and realise that the Liberal Democrats are probably irrelevant in their seat, so it doesn't matter anyway. Bluntly speaking, before they can sit at the big boy table, the Liberal Democrats need to rebuild, and get enough MPs together to potentially influence another party; and that rebuilding process means focusing on constituencies on a constituency-by-constituency basis. If they're thinking nationally, they're thinking too big. People don't like wasting votes and until the Liberal Democrats can show they're a real presence again across multiple constituencies, nobody cares what their position is.

What the Liberal Democrats need to do is say: here are our top marginal targets, of which there are 16 they can take on a 5% swing (that is, a 10% shift in the vote). Anything more than that is, in a GE context rather than a byelection, fantasy politics.

If we look at those seats:

Cambridge
Eastbourne
Lewes
Thornbury and Yate
Twickenham
Dunbartonshire East
Kingston and Surbiton
St Ives
Edinburgh West
Torbay
Sutton and Cheam
Bath
Burnley
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Yeovil
Fife North East

I have bolded the ones which voted Leave, and italicised those which are Scottish. That's 9 out of the Lib Dem's top 16 target seats voting majority Leave (and 9 out of 13 of their English target seats)! Or, in other words: if the Liberal Democrats became the party of Hard Remain, they would almost certainly do worse than if they accepted Brexit and focused on holding the government to account on how Brexit happened.

I think the Lib Dems know this, which is why you have Farron currently trying to have his cake and eat it - bash Labour for being insufficiently pro-EU while having functionally exactly the same policy set. But that's just muddling their message. I think their pro-EU focus is going to hold them back, and my personal prediction for them is about 15-16 seats based on how they're currently performing as a result.

Great post.

I ran into my Lib Dem MP yesterday on the trail and her literature says:

"Do you want to vote Labour?

But can't vote for Corbyn?"

I'm not exactly sure what her position is either...

 

[Pandy]

I'm not getting a disaster vibe from that list. In fact it feels like par for the course for a first meeting: "you can't make us pay", "ok no trade deal". Those are the expected initial positions from both sides, right? That's where you negotiate from.

That's 'where you negotiate from' when you're trying to hustle money at a pool table. Essentially what you're expecting at this stage is for the UK to do an 'Uncle Phil':
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7u1SGsT51w

The problem is the UK doesn't have any hidden skills or 'Lucille' to trigger a turnabout. It's just going to be a clumsy, entirely avoidable, disaster.

4) May seemed pissed off at Davis for regaling her dinner guests of his ECJ case against her data retention measures - three times.

lol

 

[Frankfurter]

See the leaks about Junker's meeting with May. That's no more the behaviour of a courteous negotiating partner than any of May and her cabinet's bluster and bulls**t. As mentioned, it's the same sort of tactic as used when the EU were 'negotiating' with Syriza (Greece).

So this is all? Because I don't see how you could possibly claim that the EU is doing pretty much the same then...
I see the leak of the meeting as a message to the UK government. It basically says: "You are about to tank your own country, STOP"

 

[excowboy]

If there's any accuracy in that tweet thread then I fail to see how 'both sides are as bad as each other'. The EU has agreed it's negotiating position, and due to the nature of the process, that has to be public. May seems to be negotiating from a starting position that is completely unrealistic based on the EU's stated terms. It's not the EU playing brinkmanship, it's just their stated position.

Some people think that will soften for some reason, but it's in their interests to protect their union above all else. Making politically damaging concessions isn't really going to be on the table. At all. If you're unsure about that, Greece says hi. The EU has shown it will take a hit to keep the union together.

In terms of the GE, this gives the lie to 'strengthening our negotiating position' - there is no strength in our negotiating position and a larger parliamentary majority will not change that. I guess if she convince enough of the country that 'No deal is better than a bad deal' it will be helpful, but at that point I think we'll have a lot more to worry about.

 

[tomtom94]

The Iron Lady is back on Netflix UK. Someone trying to tell us something?

 

[Jackpot]

I'm not getting a disaster vibe from that list. In fact it feels like par for the course for a first meeting: "you can't make us pay", "ok no trade deal". Those are the expected initial positions from both sides, right? That's where you negotiate from.

Everyone knows your views on "negotiating":

As for the apparent lack of plan, that's just constructive ambiguity. Sound negotiating tactic imo.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=227396434#post227396434

 

[xandaca]

So this is all? Because I don't see how you could possibly claim that the EU is doing pretty much the same then...
I see the leak of the meeting as a message to the UK government. It basically says: "You are about to tank your own country, STOP"

Unfortunately, both appear to be playing the same all-or-nothing game right now, knowing their respective audiences will believe anything they say to be completely reasonable and everything the other side says totally unfair.

And everyone who voted Brexit or supports the UK's negotiating positions will see everything coming from May as her standing up to EU acrimony. There is no 'good guy' trying to protect people in this: it's politicians, playing for their political positions, egos and perceived self-interest. Again, if you seriously think the EU is thinking of any citizens, its own or the UK's, in this negotation, look at Greece, and the similarity of negotiating style. I'm not saying the EU is wrong to try and leverage every advantage to get the best deal for itself, any more than the UK should act like a third-world country and roll over or beg for mercy (even if, again, it has done itself no favours so far and its 'ambitions' do seem stupidly unrealistic in terms of insinuating we're aiming for the same deal we've got now, but without free movement or anything else we don't like), but I'm not going to pretend either side is acting with anything approaching a moral imperative or to achieve the best deal for both sides. Both need a (reasonable) deal. Both will survive, albeit heavily damaged in different ways, without one.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Great post.

I ran into my Lib Dem MP yesterday on the trail and her literature says:

"Do you want to vote Labour?

But can't vote for Corbyn?"

I'm not exactly sure what her position is either...

I am always amazed that people don't know the position of the Lib Dems, when you have the glorious internet to answer such questions.

I am assuming you bumped into Olney BTW, as we have a mighty one female MP right now.

Crab actually is correct - the LDs are indeed focussing on individual elections, because unlike UKIP (and a lot of other parties) we actually know how to win elections without having massive entrenched voting blocs.

I'll say again our Brexit policy:

1. We would remain members of the customs union.
2. We would remain members of the single market.
3. We would complete the negotiation period, then put the deal to a referendum.

This is not 'broadly the same' policy as the Labour Party, as I suspect Crab well knows.

 

[jimbobsmells]

I wish there was a truly Centrist party. Our options are so binary.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

In what kind of negotiations do you start off threatening the other side? I'm laughing at the​ idea that the list is positive. The list shows one member's delusions.

 

[TeddyBoy]

... while the EU is doing exactly what it did before it marched into Greece: lots of leaks, timed to influence an election, about how unreasonable the other side is and acting like the aggrieved party, and demands they be given everything they want before 'real' negotiations start...

I generally agree with your post except the bolded part, the EU's position on Brexit hasn't really changed in a while and you can't say they're trying to influence the election if they are maintaining the same messaging they've had for some time combined with us having a surprise election.

And everyone who voted Brexit or supports the UK's negotiating positions will see everything coming from May as her standing up to EU acrimony. There is no 'good guy' trying to protect people in this: it's politicians, playing for their political positions, egos and perceived self-interest. Again, if you seriously think the EU is thinking of any citizens, its own or the UK's, in this negotation, look at Greece, and the similarity of negotiating style. I'm not saying the EU is wrong to try and leverage every advantage to get the best deal for itself, any more than the UK should act like a third-world country and roll over or beg for mercy (even if, again, it has done itself no favours so far and its 'ambitions' do seem stupidly unrealistic in terms of insinuating we're aiming for the same deal we've got now, but without free movement or anything else we don't like), but I'm not going to pretend either side is acting with anything approaching a moral imperative or to achieve the best deal for both sides. Both need a (reasonable) deal. Both will survive, albeit heavily damaged in different ways, without one.

The EU is protecting itself yes, but that is not mutually exclusive with protecting it's citizens. A stronger EU is better for all of Europe.

Greece is a very different situation that could have caused the end of the EU had things happened differently and an even greater recession for the world had the Euro collapsed.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

I wish there was a truly Centrist party. Our options are so binary.

Oh ffs

Why do I even bother!

 

[daviyoung]

I am always amazed that people don't know the position of the Lib Dems, when you have the glorious internet to answer such questions.

I am assuming you bumped into Olney BTW, as we have a mighty one female MP right now.

Crab actually is correct - the LDs are indeed focussing on individual elections, because unlike UKIP (and a lot of other parties) we actually know how to win elections without having massive entrenched voting blocs.

I'll say again our Brexit policy:

1. We would remain members of the customs union.
2. We would remain members of the single market.
3. We would complete the negotiation period, then put the deal to a referendum.

This is not 'broadly the same' policy as the Labour Party, as I suspect Crab well knows.

So Lib Dems aren't about stopping Brexit entirely?

 

[jimbobsmells]

Oh ffs

Why do I even bother!

Hahaha
I'll be voting Lib Dem despite being a 'wasted vote' in Hammersmith & Fulham.

 

[Roberto Larcos]

So Lib Dems aren't about stopping Brexit entirely?

Depends on how you consider a soft Brexit, which involves remaining in the single market, free movement of people (both ways!) and complying with EU legislation.

 

[Frankfurter]

And everyone who voted Brexit or supports the UK's negotiating positions will see everything coming from May as her standing up to EU acrimony. There is no 'good guy' trying to protect people in this: it's politicians, playing for their political positions, egos and perceived self-interest. Again, if you seriously think the EU is thinking of any citizens, its own or the UK's, in this negotation, look at Greece, and the similarity of negotiating style. I'm not saying the EU is wrong to try and leverage every advantage to get the best deal for itself, any more than the UK should act like a third-world country and roll over or beg for mercy (even if, again, it has done itself no favours so far and its 'ambitions' do seem stupidly unrealistic in terms of insinuating we're aiming for the same deal we've got now, but without free movement or anything else we don't like), but I'm not going to pretend either side is acting with anything approaching a moral imperative or to achieve the best deal for both sides. Both need a (reasonable) deal. Both will survive, albeit heavily damaged in different ways, without one.

I don't know why you keep on mentioning Greece. Let's just stick to the topic at hand, instead of comparing it sth. that is completely different and would warrant a thread of its own to discuss what happened there.

I see two sides here: the EU which has had a coherent message from the very beginning that simply hasn't changed at all. It was very open in terms of the kind of deal that the UK can expect.
The UK on the other side is constantly BSing. Keeping single market access while not having freedom of movement for instance. It makes unrealistic demands, it seems to be ill-informed (see the canada free trade deal that Juncker presented to May for instance) and it lacks a coherent message. The closest it comes to sth. like a message is "Let's make Brexit a success", which is PR bullshit.
The EU is imo also very honest when it says that there is no such thing as a successful Brexit. It's gonna be bad either way.

 

[Hazzuh]

The government responds to the FAZ story about the May/Juncker dinner:

"We do not recognise this account" rather than "This is false" basically confirms that the reporting is accurate.

 

[daviyoung]

Depends on how you consider a soft Brexit, which involves remaining in the single market, free movement of people (both ways!) and complying with EU legislation.

I didn't consider LD to be about a soft Brexit, I considered them to be about reversing it. As a lot of others do. Seems their message is getting muddy.

 

[xandaca]

I generally agree with your post except the bolded part, the EU's position on Brexit hasn't really changed in a while and you can't say they're trying to influence the election if they are maintaining the same messaging they've had for some time combined with us having a surprise election.



The EU is protecting itself yes, but that is not mutually exclusive with protecting it's citizens. A stronger EU is better for all of Europe.

Greece is a very different situation that could have caused the end of the EU had things happened differently and an even greater recession for the world had the Euro collapsed.

For the record, while I suspect it's fairly obvious I don't have much love for the EU, I don't want it to disintegrate either and would, on balance, have voted to Remain had I been in the country at the time. I think the UK would've been better off staying in, considering we already had something close to the best of both worlds through not being part of the euro or Schengen, but respect (most of) the reasons for wanting to leave as well as (most of) the concerns of Remainers. While the EU's survival is certainly important, despite its organisation and the euro particularly often seeming to work against that goal, I'm not under the illusion that it's some immaculately benevolent entity whose only concerns are your wellbeing and mine. I strongly believe in the importance of a united Europe in light of Russian provocations and security concerns, but am less than convinced achieving that involves a stronger, more centralised EU when so many existing problems have, to my mind, been exacerbated by precisely that.

I don't know why you keep on mentioning Greece. Let's just stick to the topic at hand, instead of comparing it sth. that is completely different and would warrant a thread of its own to discuss what happened there.

I see two sides here: the EU which has had a coherent message from the very beginning that simply hasn't changed at all. It was very open in terms of the kind of deal that the UK can expect.
The UK on the other side is constantly BSing. Keeping single market access while not having freedom of movement for instance. It makes unrealistic demands, it seems to be ill-informed (see the canada free trade deal that Juncker presented to May for instance) and it lacks a coherent message. The closest it comes to sth. like a message is "Let's make Brexit a success", which is PR bullshit.
The EU is imo also very honest when it says that there is no such thing as a successful Brexit. It's gonna be bad either way.

You can ignore or reframe the evidence that doesn't suit your narrative as much as you like. What happened in Greece, and even bringing up Gibraltar, immediately disproves the narrative that the EU has any interest in protecting citizens ahead of its institutions and political games. They are acting the same way in negotiations here as they did then, acting like an aggrieved party, weaponising the press to catastrophise and undermine the other party's government, and demanding they be handed everything before even considering giving any ground. As per my previous post, I'm not saying they're wrong to leverage everything they can to get what they want, or that the Tories haven't been equally petulant and mixed their messages relentlessly - and often absurdly overblown when actually putting forward any concrete aims - but you're reflexively believing everything the EU is telling you as gospel. Insofar as such generalised terms as 'success' can have meaning, Brexit can and needs to be relatively painless for both sides, but so far both are being hopelessly intransigent and spiteful, which will ultimately lead to a bad result for everyone. The UK is a major enough contributor to the EU that a negative outcome for us is a negative outcome for them, and the EU vital enough to us that the vice-versa is equally true. Brexit can be a 'success', but not if neither side wants it to be.

 

[Frankfurter]

You can ignore or reframe the evidence that doesn't suit your narrative as much as you like. What happened in Greece, and even bringing up Gibraltar, immediately disproves the narrative that the EU has any interest in protecting citizens ahead of its institutions and political games. They are acting the same way in negotiations here as they did then, acting like an aggrieved party, weaponising the press to catastrophise and undermine the other party's government, and demanding they be handed everything before even considering giving any ground. As per my previous post, I'm not saying they're wrong to leverage everything they can to get what they want, or that the Tories haven't been equally petulant and mixed their messages relentlessly - and often absurdly overblown when actually putting forward any concrete aims - but you're reflexively believing everything the EU is telling you as gospel. Insofar as such generalised terms as 'success' can have meaning, Brexit can and needs to be relatively painless for both sides, but so far both are being hopelessly intransigent and spiteful, which will ultimately lead to a bad result for everyone. The UK is a major enough contributor to the EU that a negative outcome for us is a negative outcome for them, and the EU vital enough to us that the vice-versa is equally true. Brexit can be a 'success', but not if neither side wants it to be.

Welp, sorry but this discussion is pointless to me if you just keep on referring to the Greece situtation - which is incredibly complex - as some kind of proof. We could have a discussion over a couple pages as to how the EU was or was not a fair negotiator with Greece and would still only scratch the surface.

What is particularly confusing about your post is this part, though:

...immediately disproves the narrative that the EU has any interest in protecting citizens ahead of its institutions and political games

Protecting its (EUs) very existence means protecting its citizens. It's one and the same. This is assuming that the EU as an institution feels like its good for its citizens overall - which it obviously has to.

...but you're reflexively believing everything the EU is telling you as gospel.

No, I'm not. Why would you claim sth. like that?

Gibraltar can also be seen from various angles. One could argue that it's the EU trying to embarass the UK. One could also argue though that it is a way to make sure that Spain doesn't veto the whole deal after all. Edit: "The EU" especially in this case is not a singular entity, like the UK, but rather a number of countries and each of those has the power to veto the final deal.

 

[jelly]

Not a bad comment from Tony Blair for some of the masses.

The ex-Labour leader said that while the final exit deal had yet to be agreed, the perils of a hard Brexit were clear. “The single market put us in the Champions League of trading agreements. A free-trade agreement is like League One. We are relegating ourselves.”

 

[Huw_Dawson]

I didn't consider LD to be about a soft Brexit, I considered them to be about reversing it. As a lot of others do. Seems their message is getting muddy.

Sure, if the people want to reverse Brexit, they get to vote against leaving the EU at a referendum called on the final deal.

If we got elected on a massive majority, maybe we'd go further, but that is the route to stopping Brexit right now.

It is Labour who have a muddy message this campaign. You see Alastair Darling tell Scots that his party is opposed to the Tory Brexiteers, and you have Keir Starmer committing Labour to leaving the single market.

 

[xandaca]

Protecting its (EUs) very existence means protecting its citizens. It's one and the same. This is assuming that the EU as an institution feels like its good for its citizens overall - which it obviously has to.

I'm sure the Greeks forced into severe, probably unsustainable austerity to protect the European banks, not to mention the Fiscal Compact effectively enforcing austerity across the rest of the continent, also think the good of a massive centralised, opaque political body is the only way to ensure their national prosperity, even if so far it has only suffocated the economic growth of nations not benefiting from Germany's trade surplus (Germany and the Eastern European nations) or acting as tax havens (Luxembourg, Ireland).

No, I'm not. Why would you claim sth. like that?

Because every time you talk in absolutes and meaningless platitudes it happens to be exactly the line the EU is putting out.

Gibraltar can also be seen from various angles. One could argue that it's the EU trying to embarass the UK. One could also argue though that it is a way to make sure that Spain doesn't veto the whole deal after all. Edit: "The EU" especially in this case is not a singular entity, like the UK, but rather a number of countries and each of those has the power to veto the final deal.

So which is it, the EU negotiating as a single bloc, or with each member having their own red lines and privileges, leading to a veto if not met? As already covered, the idea that there's no other way of making Spain toe the line of signing off on any deal perceived to be in the EU's best interests as a whole, even though every other member state will be doing precisely that (hence: negotiating as a bloc), is just silly.

Yes, individual nations have the power to veto the deal, but most won't unless there's perceived to be a serious impact to their interest - hence Belgium with CETA, even if their concerns would not be an issue in negotiating with the UK given the terms of our existing relationship. As much as Spain likes posturing over Gibraltar, the status quo (as long as Gibraltarians wish to remain British, anyway) is completely in the interests of their citizens and fragile economy. The notion they couldn't be easily convinced to do as told instead of risking ostracisation and further economic damage with a Brexit deal veto is, at best, reasoning based in little real world logic or applicability. Just allowing Gibraltar to be raised in terms of giving Spain exceptional privileges shows the EU putting the Spanish government's short-term political ambitions ahead of the wellbeing of the thousands of people crossing the border for work every day.

 

[w1ck3dn1nj4]

Spent a fun 8 hours in a & e last night.

An announcement came over the tannoy at one stage to say "the waiting time is now 5 and a half hours, we apologise" etc etc etc. One of the dr's then shouted out "p.s. Vote Labour"

Made me smile

Best kept secret so far….Labour’s hard brexit stopping FOM will solve staffing and operational issues and save the NHS!

You know what else comes with hard Brexit besides better NHS? Job security and pay rise, pension growth, cheaper food and petrol, less tax and NI, cheaper flights, no more roaming charges, cheaper gas and electric, affordable property with 0% deposits and low mortgage rates… Woohoo!!

 

[Guerrillas in the Mist]

Not a bad comment from Tony Blair for some of the masses.

The ex-Labour leader said that while the final exit deal had yet to be agreed, the perils of a hard Brexit were clear. “The single market put us in the Champions League of trading agreements. A free-trade agreement is like League One. We are relegating ourselves.”

Say what you will about Teflon Tony, he's good at communicating his points across. A true salesman of a politician.

 

[SporeCrawler]

Both sides are acting like children. Many of May's positions seem unrealistic and her cabinet has responded idiotically to every minor provocation (Gibraltar especially) and had no coherent message or timetable on what it wants to achieve, while the EU is doing exactly what it did before it marched into Greece: lots of leaks, timed to influence an election, about how unreasonable the other side is and acting like the aggrieved party, and demands they be given everything they want before 'real' negotiations start. It's in no-one's interest not to have a deal worked out and if both sides were reasonable, there certainly seem to be compromises that would leave each with some form of 'victory' they can take back to their PR teams. Unfortunately, both appear to be playing the same all-or-nothing game right now, knowing their respective audiences will believe anything they say to be completely reasonable and everything the other side says totally unfair. Hopefully both will soften sooner rather than later, without either capitulating to the other. For everyone criticising, often rightly, May's conduct, they're happily ignoring the EU behaving in exactly the same way. Regardless, the most sensible thing May can do is work out a fall-back plan for how to mitigate the effects of leaving with no deal (where to reallocate the ~£6.5bn p/a we won't be paying into the EU budget, lowering business rates, how to reintegrate the British immigrants the EU might choose to punish, rights for EU citizens over here, etc). I don't think it'll come to that, but we should learn from not having a Brexit plan pre-referendum and at least have a basic map for the least desirable outcome on the table. Hopefully the bickering and sniping will stop sooner rather than later, though, even if it'd be against the run of play for both sides.

eu is doing the best they can. tbh i am very satisfied how they are handling things so far..

also marched into greece? the greeks overspend and EU bailed them out with the condition that they had to agree to austerity measures. it looks like greek economy, after a few painful years, is finally recovering too

I'm sure the Greeks forced into severe, probably unsustainable austerity to protect the European banks, not to mention the Fiscal Compact effectively enforcing austerity across the rest of the continent, also think the good of a massive centralised, opaque political body is the only way to ensure their national prosperity, even if so far it has only suffocated the economic growth of nations not benefiting from Germany's trade surplus (Germany and the Eastern European nations) or acting as tax havens (Luxembourg, Ireland).



Because every time you talk in absolutes and meaningless platitudes it happens to be exactly the line the EU is putting out.



So which is it, the EU negotiating as a single bloc, or with each member having their own red lines and privileges, leading to a veto if not met? As already covered, the idea that there's no other way of making Spain toe the line of signing off on any deal perceived to be in the EU's best interests as a whole, even though every other member state will be doing precisely that (hence: negotiating as a bloc), is just silly.

Yes, individual nations have the power to veto the deal, but most won't unless there's perceived to be a serious impact to their interest - hence Belgium with CETA, even if their concerns would not be an issue in negotiating with the UK given the terms of our existing relationship. As much as Spain likes posturing over Gibraltar, the status quo (as long as Gibraltarians wish to remain British, anyway) is completely in the interests of their citizens and fragile economy. The notion they couldn't be easily convinced to do as told instead of risking ostracisation and further economic damage with a Brexit deal veto is, at best, reasoning based in little real world logic or applicability. Just allowing Gibraltar to be raised in terms of giving Spain exceptional privileges shows the EU putting the Spanish government's short-term political ambitions ahead of the wellbeing of the thousands of people crossing the border for work every day.

you know what it is. each member can block progress. thats one of the fundamental problems of EU but also the reason why it works great when it works
no state gets ignored and everybody needs to be on board.

 

[daviyoung]

Sure, if the people want to reverse Brexit, they get to vote against leaving the EU at a referendum called on the final deal.

If we got elected on a massive majority, maybe we'd go further, but that is the route to stopping Brexit right now.

All right, makes sense.

 

[Miles Quaritch]

Not a bad comment from Tony Blair for some of the masses.

The ex-Labour leader said that while the final exit deal had yet to be agreed, the perils of a hard Brexit were clear. “The single market put us in the Champions League of trading agreements. A free-trade agreement is like League One. We are relegating ourselves.”

That sounds more like something Alastair Campbell would say.

 

[Billy_Pilgrim]

Brexit negotiations are going to backfire on her spectacularly, huge majority or no.

Get rid of Corbyn ASAP and start banging the uselessness drum.