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Atlantic Hurricane season 2017 |OT|

P

perfectchaos007

Member
There's a wave off Africa that looks to be taking a southern track. I wonder if that disturbance will be in the gulf before Harvey finally dissipates.
 
R

Retro

Member
Tropical Storm watches posted for the North and South Carolina coasts;

DIRAPeSW0AERWQx.jpg
Click to expand...
 
R

Retro

Member
Bumping for the latest update on Potential Tropical Cyclone 10. It's not Harvey but there's still people in North and South Carolina who will be affected.

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THE DISTURBANCE POORLY
ORGANIZED...
...CHANCES TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ARE DIMINISHING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 79.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Albemarle Sound
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to South Santee River
Click to expand...

3Mo6Mon.jpg
Click to expand...

So, good news that we're not juggling two storms at once, and the next wave is still off Africa and won't impact the US for a week or more.
 
S

smokeandmirrors

Banned
Retro said:
Bumping for the latest update on Potential Tropical Cyclone 10. It's not Harvey but there's still people in North and South Carolina who will be affected.

So, good news that we're not juggling two storms at once, and the next wave is still off Africa and won't impact the US for a week or more.
Click to expand...

so this is where the rain came from today here in the north east
 
M

maquiladora

Member
TarpitCarnivore said:
So I'm reading the models correct the track is for it to turn east before Florida and trail into the Atlantic
Click to expand...

The current American model has it turning and staying out to sea. The Euro model only goes out to Day 10 and has it positioned much further south, so it's more of a threat to the US/Islands.

It's way too soon to know where it's going.
 
M

maquiladora

Member
145752_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png


Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2017

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area in the far
eastern Atlantic has become much better organized since yesterday,
with many curved bands around the center. ASCAT data showed peak
winds of about 42 kt, and after considering the small size of the
circulation and some undersampling due to the resolution of the
instrument, the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt. Global models
indicate that the upper-level winds are likely to be favorable for
strengthening of Irma during the next several days. However, Irma
will be moving over more marginal water temperatures and into drier
mid-level conditions, which should temper the intensification rate.
The NHC solution is a blend of the intensity consensus and the
statistical-dynamical hurricane models SHIPS and LGEM. At the end
of the period, the forecast could turn out to be conservative if the
very conducive environment shown in most of the global models
emerges.

The initial motion estimate is 280/11. A ridge over the eastern
Atlantic is forecast to steer Irma westward over the next few days.
Thereafter, the ridge builds southwestward, which will likely cause
the storm to move, somewhat unusually, toward the west-southwest.
The official forecast puts more weight on the global models than the
regional hurricane models, which appear to have a northward bias on
this cycle. Thus, the NHC track prediction is on the southwestern
side of the guidance envelope, although not as far in that direction
as the ECMWF or its ensemble mean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 16.4N 30.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 16.7N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 17.3N 33.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 17.9N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 18.2N 37.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 18.7N 41.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 17.7N 46.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 17.0N 51.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN
Click to expand...
 
G

Griss

Member
MrJames said:
Latest Euro isn't going with the trend north...

v1gRlgf.gif
Click to expand...

perfectchaos007 said:
Irma is now forecast to be at least a cat. 3 by Sunday.
Click to expand...

Welp, now I've got something new to worry about...

The Euro has that thing hitting me dead on on the 8th Sept and the Euro is the one I typically trust... Long ways to go yet.

But whenever we've had huge hurricanes here, it's been the last week of August or the first week of September, so this makes sense. Dodge this one and we'll likely have gone through an entire season without even a hint of tropical disturbance.
 
P

perfectchaos007

Member
Griss said:
Welp, now I've got something new to worry about...

The Euro has that thing hitting me dead on on the 8th Sept and the Euro is the one I typically trust... Long ways to go yet.

But whenever we've had huge hurricanes here, it's been the last week of August or the first week of September, so this makes sense. Dodge this one and we'll likely have gone through an entire season without even a hint of tropical disturbance.
Click to expand...

I vacationed to Nassau just days after Matthew came through last year. Y'all handled that storm pretty well so surely you can handle Irma if it comes your way
 
M

maquiladora

Member
Latest Euro model shows Irma causing havoc for the islands then heading for the Gulf:

nbqxNbA.gif


Latest American model still keeps this out to sea.
 
P

perfectchaos007

Member
Pankratous said:
Thread title is so strange as an outsider. Looks like it's something you guys almost celebrate. This years box set.
Click to expand...

Heh. Well I can assure you it's not. The Atlantic has several storms every season, sometimes multiple storms at once, and this is just a topic to discuss them. Should a storm become severe and threaten land, generally someone else makes a thread about that particular storm.
 
M

MrJames

Member
06z GFS is trending west now. Seem the Euro is on to something first as usual. GFS brings a sub 900mb monster up the US coast now while the Euro pounds Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba.

AsRb0xq.gif
 
T

TarpitCarnivore

Member
MrJames said:
06z GFS is trending west now. Seem the Euro is on to something first as usual. GFS brings a sub 900mb monster up the US coast now while the Euro pounds Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba.
Click to expand...

Still far out for definite forecasts to worry, but I am not ready for this crap yet in the NE.
 
R

Relix

he's Virgin Tight™
Well fuck and I thought I was going to go another season without a hit. A major hitting pr is gonna wreck the fuck out of it.
 
M

maquiladora

Member
The 06Z GFS is catastrophic but luckily that is still 10+ days away and unlikely to verify. The GFS has to be overcooking the intensity too. Only a handful of Atlantic basin cyclones have ever reached a pressure that low in recorded history, and I don't think any of them were East Coast storms.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
maquiladora said:
The 06Z GFS is catastrophic but luckily that is still 10+ days away and unlikely to verify. The GFS has to be overcooking the intensity too. Only a handful of Atlantic basin cyclones have ever reached a pressure that low in recorded history, and I don't think any of them were East Coast storms.
Click to expand...

Didn't Wilma have the lowest pressure in history?
 
T

Tk0n

Member
euro has irma further south directly over cuba. so it could weaken a bit before hitting mainland us.
really bad news for cuba though. irma looks quite strong already.
 
E

EverythingShiny

Member
MrJames said:
06z GFS is trending west now. Seem the Euro is on to something first as usual. GFS brings a sub 900mb monster up the US coast now while the Euro pounds Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba.

AsRb0xq.gif
Click to expand...

Wow, if that happens looks like it'll be bad news for the eastern part of North Carolina. Looks like it could even affect us here in Raleigh. I'll be keeping an eye on this thread to see how this thing develops.
 
C

Chumly

Member
Remember that anything beyond 5 days out had extremely low or no confidence in the forecast.

What we do know with high confidence is that Irma is likely to be a monster around the leeward islands. We will get a better idea of what will happen once we get within the 5 day timeframe.
 
G

GregLombardi

Member
maquiladora said:
Latest Euro model shows Irma causing havoc for the islands then heading for the Gulf:

nbqxNbA.gif


Latest American model still keeps this out to sea.
Click to expand...
If the euro holds in this exact path then that is good news for the US in some regards. Those islands absolutely wreck hurricane circulations with their mountainous terrain.

Also always believe the euro first and consider the gfs predictions like the 3rd cousin you barely know.
 
M

maquiladora

Member
Irma is already a Cat 2 hurricane and forecast to be a Cat 3 within 12 hours.

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

Satellite imagines indicate that Irma is rapidly intensifying.
Very deep convection has formed in the central dense overcast,
which is now displaying a small and clearing eye. Dvorak estimates
were up to 77 kt at 1200 UTC, and since the cloud pattern continues
to quickly become more organized, the initial wind speed is set to
85 kt.

Irma has moved somewhat south of and slower than all of the model
guidance since yesterday. Consequently, it stayed longer over the
warmer ocean temperatures away from the drier air to the north,
possibly allowing the rapid strengthening. Irma should move over
cooler waters tomorrow with some increase in mid-level dry air, so
hopefully the hurricane's intensity will level off by then. In a
few days, the hurricane will be moving over warmer waters with light
shear shown by all of the model guidance. This should promote
further strengthening of Irma, and the NHC forecast shows an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane next week, similar to the
solutions provided by the HWRF and the ECMWF models. The intensity
forecast is raised considerably from the previous one due to initial
trends, and is on the high end of the guidance at long range.

The hurricane has turned west-northwestward at about 9 kt. This
motion should continue for the next day or so before a ridge builds
over the central Atlantic Ocean. This ridge should force Irma to
turn westward by the weekend, and west-southwestward early next
week. Guidance continues to trend southward, following the trend of
the ECMWF model starting yesterday. Given the strength of the ridge
and depth of the tropical cyclone, there are no obvious reasons to
discount the anomalous west-southwestward motion seen in most of the
guidance. Little change is made to the track forecast in short
range, but the track is shifted southward and westward at long
range, though not as far southwest as the overnight ECMWF and ECMWF
ensemble models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 16.9N 33.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 17.5N 35.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 18.0N 37.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 18.2N 39.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 18.1N 41.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 17.0N 46.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 16.0N 51.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 16.0N 55.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
Click to expand...

145426_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
D

Deleted member 20415

Unconfirmed Member
Baraka in the White House said:
The wife and I are supposed to vacation in St. Martin next week.

We're not gonna be vacationing in St. Martin next week, will we?
Click to expand...


Keep an eye on it... but depending upon what part of the week - likely not.

Sorry Baraka - not easy... just keep an eye on the airline updates.
 
R

Relix

he's Virgin Tight™
GregLombardi said:
If the euro holds in this exact path then that is good news for the US in some regards. Those islands absolutely wreck hurricane circulations with their mountainous terrain.

Also always believe the euro first and consider the gfs predictions like the 3rd cousin you barely know.
Click to expand...
Sure. Fuck the people in the islands :/
 
mckmas8808

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Hey GAF I'm going to Cabo, Mexico this Saturday. Should I be scared of Tropical Storm Lydia at all?
 
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