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Atlantic Hurricane season 2017 |OT|

Miggytronz

Miggytronz

Member
MrJames said:
Latest Euro isn't going with the trend north...

v1gRlgf.gif
Click to expand...

Uhg. Go away Irma!

I live in Virginia Beach and this doesn’t look good at all!
 
B

Barzul

Member
So I'm in South FL and just hearing about Irma. How worried do I need to be? I know it's still some ways away from landfall but is there a proper path known now?
 
M

Mully

Member
Barzul said:
So I'm in South FL and just hearing about Irma. How worried do I need to be? I know it's still some ways away from landfall but is there a proper path known now?
Click to expand...

Follow this thread and take things with conservative precaution if the forecasts are beyond 4 days out.
 
M

maquiladora

Member
Barzul said:
So I'm in South FL and just hearing about Irma. How worried do I need to be? I know it's still some ways away from landfall but is there a proper path known now?
Click to expand...

This is as far as the official forecast track goes. No need to be worried. Just keep an eye on it.

203906_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
J

JacksUsername

Member
NateDrake said:
Looks like a high-end Cat.4 with that pressure reading. Wonder if the model takes it off the coast, right into New England, or crosses over eastern Cape Cod. Obviously this run doesn't mean much this far out, but interesting path nonetheless.
Click to expand...

That's insane. Like you said it's way too early to mean too much, but just the thought of a Category 4 retaining it's strength up to southeastern MA seems crazy. Has that ever happened?
 
F

fluffydelusions

Member
JacksUsername said:
That's insane. Like you said it's way too early to mean too much, but just the thought of a Category 4 retaining it's strength up to southeastern MA seems crazy. Has that ever happened?
Click to expand...

Hurricane Gloria in 1985 was a cat 4...don't remember if it was cat 4 when it hit land though? I was living in CT back then but I still remember it knocking over a huge tree in our yard.
 
J

JacksUsername

Member
fluffydelusions said:
Hurricane Gloria in 1985 was a cat 4...don't remember if it was cat 4 when it hit land though? I was living in CT back then but I still remember it knocking over a huge tree in our yard.
Click to expand...

Ah, I was still in NH at the time and very young; it looks like it weakened a bit after clipping the Carolinas and hit Long Island as a Category 1. I was in Fall River/New Bedford, MA area for Hurricane Bob in '91 and just that weak Category 2 wrecked the area for a while; can't even imagine what a 4 would do. I know we had no power for a week and distinctly remember reading the novel adaption of Bill and Ted's Bogus Journey from school during daylight hours since there was nothing else to do.
 
T

teiresias

Member
Geez, I hope this thing takes the southerly track. No offense to our Florida friends, but at least you're kind of built to withstand this kind of thing.

I'm also flying out tomorrow from Richmond, VA to Boston and then driving to Maine for the week, then driving back to Boston on Friday and supposed to fly back to Richmond on Saturday night. If it goes north who knows when I'd get home.
 
G

geomon

Member
teiresias said:
Geez, I hope this thing takes the southerly track. No offense to our Florida friends, but at least you're kind of built to withstand this kind of thing.

I'm also flying out tomorrow from Richmond, VA to Boston and then driving to Maine for the week, then driving back to Boston on Friday and supposed to fly back to Richmond on Saturday night. If it goes north who knows when I'd get home.
Click to expand...

Trust me on this, we're not. Especially places like Miami Beach.
 
K

KillGore

Member
I'll be very surprised if Irma hits us (Puerto Rico). Sometimes it feels like HAARP is working on our side. All storms that try to reach us, suddenly just swerve and leave. Although this is the Trump era.
 
D

dskillzhtown

keep your strippers out of my American football
Master Yoshi said:
I live close to the GA/FL line in the southeast. Am I fucked?
Click to expand...

Don't panic. That isn't going to help you. Do prepare - buying supplies, get a plan to move to an area that doesn't flood, gather all your important documents/items and put them in a 'go' bag, fill up your car with gas, keep an eye on the news so you know what is going on. Prepare so you don't panic later.
 
M

MogCakes

Member
USA is not catching any breaks this hurricane season. I hope people take note of Harvey and prepare accordingly for Irma. It's path is possibly targeting the entire East coast.
 
M

MrNelson

Banned
Ya, Florida may be more prone to hurricanes than other regions in the Southeast, but by no means does that mean we are better equipped for it. A storm strong enough and in the right place can put a good portion of the area under 20-30 feet of water from storm surge and flooding because much of the area is at or just above sea level.

I mean, just look how fucked Tampa Bay would be by a direct hit from a Cat 4
tampa_cat4moms.png
 
F

fluffydelusions

Member
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017

...IRMA BECOMES A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 34.8W
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1780 MI...2865 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 34.8 West. Irma is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue today, followed by a westward turn on Saturday,
and a west-southwestward motion by Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength,
both up and down, are possible, but Irma is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane for several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).
Click to expand...
.
 
M

MrJames

Member
Some 00z models have shifted to the north beyond day 5. Potential good news for Puerto Rico and other islands.

PAp7EaM.gif


mbntDL7.png


Euro Ensemble Control Track
4ZOiE4F.gif
 
sazzy

sazzy

Member
just out of curiosity, what would happen if you drop a nuke in the eye of a hurricane while its over the ocean?

would it disrupt the weather pattern at all?
 
M

MrJames

Member
sazzy said:
just out of curiosity, what would happen if you drop a nuke in the eye of a hurricane while its over the ocean?

would it disrupt the weather pattern at all?
Click to expand...

During each hurricane season, there always appear suggestions that one should simply use nuclear weapons to try and destroy the storms. Apart from the fact that this might not even alter the storm, this approach neglects the problem that the released radioactive fallout would fairly quickly move with the tradewinds to affect land areas and cause devastating environmental problems. Needless to say, this is not a good idea.
Now for a more rigorous scientific explanation of why this would not be an effective hurricane modification technique. The main difficulty with using explosives to modify hurricanes is the amount of energy required. A fully developed hurricane can release heat energy at a rate of 5 to 20x10^13 watts and converts less than 10% of the heat into the mechanical energy of the wind. The heat release is equivalent to a 10-megaton nuclear bomb exploding every 20 minutes. According to the 1993 World Almanac, the entire human race used energy at a rate of 10^13 watts in 1990, a rate less than 20% of the power of a hurricane.
Click to expand...

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/C5c.html
 
B

bigmakattack

Banned
There is so much uncertainty this far out on what this storm could. The Euro ensembles don't look good but there are factors that will impact where the storm goes in the future that are impossible to predict this far out. It's probably a lot better to watch the storm in the short term and see how it unfolds in that time frame rather than worrying about 10 days out. How it plays out short term is going to change where it goes from there. It is good to keep an eye out on it, but things could change. When looking at Climatology, most of these types of storms curve out to sea, and I really hope this one does as well.

Check out the video on https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ for a good explanation on this storm.
 
S

smokeandmirrors

Banned
yeah looks like the turn north is slowly catching on.

we should get some good shit in the 00z runs tonight. still far out but we should start to see some patterns.
 
R

Rayis

Member
Ouch, not to be a selfish asshole but I'm glad that Irma is not going to hit us here in the Texas Gulf Coast again, I hope it stays far from land and doesn't land anywhere and just fizzles out.
 
M

mo60

Member
JacksUsername said:
That's insane. Like you said it's way too early to mean too much, but just the thought of a Category 4 retaining it's strength up to southeastern MA seems crazy. Has that ever happened?
Click to expand...

It's likely going to be a cat 1 or 2 with a ridiculosly low pressure at that latitude or an extratropical storm.I don't think the waters close to southeastern MA are warm enough to support a category 4 hurricane.

Edit: Yeah the waters up around southeastern MA are definitely nowhere near warm enough to support a cat 4 hurricane.Unless Irma finds a way to stay as a cat 4 up around that area there is zero chance it will make landfall in that area as a cat 4.
 
A

Arcia

Banned
Rayis said:
Ouch, not to be a selfish asshole but I'm glad that Irma is not going to hit us here in the Texas Gulf Coast again, I hope it stays far from land and doesn't land anywhere and just fizzles out.
Click to expand...

Not selfish at all. We already 'took one for the team' and it was a horrible disaster. Getting hit with another hurricane so soon would wipe us off the map!

Pretty much any other state along the coast is more ready and able to weather a major hurricane than us right now, we are battered and broken 🙁
 
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