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Atlantic Hurricane season 2017 |OT|
- Thread starter perfectchaos007
- Start date
Thankfully no one seems too keen on making the storm anything other than a low-end hurricane/tropical storm with the exception of HMON which has it at around 959 MB on hitting the US mainland. This would likely be a mid-range category 2.
It's one to watch though as storms forming in that area can bomb very quickly. There's plenty of hot water for it.
It's one to watch though as storms forming in that area can bomb very quickly. There's plenty of hot water for it.
maabus1999
Member
All, this storm is sitting around 90% chance to become a storm soon and will have 3+ days over the gulf before it hits. Due to surface temps and low sheer, when this thing forms and if it does miss a Yucatan hit, "Nate" may bomb out like Harvey did intensity wise.
Over the next 48 hours, I would recommend watching the NHC tracks on this development.
Do not rely on intensity models until a core is formed; they are inaccurate at this stage. Plus with the La Nina effect going on, expect a much higher probability of it being stronger than weaker than forecast (see Harvey). La Nina is not factored very well into models...
perfectchaos007
Member
All, this storm is sitting around 90% chance to become a storm soon and will have 3+ days over the gulf before it hits. Due to surface temps and low sheer, when this thing forms and if it does miss a Yucatan hit, "Nate" may bomb out like Harvey did intensity wise.
Over the next 48 hours, I would recommend watching the NHC tracks on this development.
Do not rely on intensity models until a core is formed; they are inaccurate at this stage. Plus with the La Nina effect going on, expect a much higher probability of it being stronger than weaker than forecast (see Harvey). La Nina is not factored very well into models...
Interesting. NHC has landfall east of all of those points. NHC is showing landfall near Tallahassee Florida
That is pretty much exactly where the current Euro model (today 0z) puts it as well:
Landfall would be on 2017-10-08 (sunday) at 1800 UTC / 2 PM EDT.
Though currently, the same model predicts that it gets pretty windy, but nothing more:
Those are wind gusts at around 100 km/h ≈ 60 mph
Smiles and Cries
Member
Gulf Season has begun?
perfectchaos007
Member
This is gulf season part two. Part one was in June. The good news for the Texas coast line is most storms that form in the latter half of gulf season tend to get pushed East due to continuous fall fronts that push through
Master Yoshi
Member
Here we go again... Again.
Vestal
Gold Member
Very interesting video explaining why such a huge discrepancy between the GFS and Euro models. How tomorrow we will probably get much more clarity as to were this might be headed for landfall and what areas need to keep watch..
https://youtu.be/UiJ0KfgQxAA
https://youtu.be/UiJ0KfgQxAA
Smiles and Cries
Member
Nate huh
The current Euro model has put SIXTEEN's path decidedly further west. Here are the ensemble storm tracks:
Going right through Mississippi. Lovely...
Captain Tuttle
Member
What are the water temperatures like in The Gulf?
The Sum of Zero
Member
And Alabama. Not fun.
Mid 80's
perfectchaos007
Member
Looks like a landfall between Slidell LA and Gulfport MS. Right where Katrina made landfall
Current (12z) Euro model ensemble storm tracks:
Note that the wind speeds are probably wrong, at least the NHC has it a bit higher. Orange is where hurricane force begins, the light blue most of the tracks are in corresponds to 38-53 mph.
Closer look at where Nate makes landfall according to the main run:
Landfall is on 8 October (Sunday) at 0900 UTC or 5 AM EDT.
Note that the wind speeds are probably wrong, at least the NHC has it a bit higher. Orange is where hurricane force begins, the light blue most of the tracks are in corresponds to 38-53 mph.
Closer look at where Nate makes landfall according to the main run:
Landfall is on 8 October (Sunday) at 0900 UTC or 5 AM EDT.
captjohnboyd
Member
Well new Orleans has declared a state of emergency. That escalated fast. I worked extra shifts all week to bolster the paycheck and now we may be closed all weekend. Ugh
Smiles and Cries
Member
Does not seem to hold that H long so might be weak when it hits?
Randolph Freelander
Member
Its forecast is to be a weak hurricane, but Harvey went from nothing to a Cat 4 in short time in the gulf, and two days out from landfall, it wasn't even forecasted to become a hurricane.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/al09/al092017.discus.012.shtml?
People along the gulf coast should make no assumptions.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/al09/al092017.discus.012.shtml?
People along the gulf coast should make no assumptions.
StopMakingSense
Member
Wow that cone is TIGHT. Never seen that.
The levees are fixed, just dont ask about the pumps...
maabus1999
Member
Recon has already measured steep pressure drops starting and satellite is starting to show a strong circular convection. It is most likely that Nate will be a hurricane in the coming hours and is already exceeding by a wide margin the models in intensity. Chance for Rapid intensification is still very high.
So for Nate up here in ATL what should I be expecting? Looks like some bad winds mainly?
Or, maybe really bad wind and rain. Bleh.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/stone-mountain-ga/30083/weather-warnings/337724
Or, maybe really bad wind and rain. Bleh.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/stone-mountain-ga/30083/weather-warnings/337724
At least Nate is moving very quickly compared to the others.
I have no doubt they have been working very hard, but happy to see even more trucks making the rounds on Irma cleanup duty just in case. There was an abundance of debris still laying around, but the prudent thing is to get as much of it out of the way as possible just in case.
I have no doubt they have been working very hard, but happy to see even more trucks making the rounds on Irma cleanup duty just in case. There was an abundance of debris still laying around, but the prudent thing is to get as much of it out of the way as possible just in case.
The Sum of Zero
Member
Looks like we'll be getting this in Alabama on Sunday. At least I'll be on the northwest part of it.
4pm update:
4pm update:
Not too worried about the wind, but we put up metal shields on the windows anyway. Way more worried about the flooding. If the current track and rainfall hold steady, our first floor will flood. Going to move everything that I can upstairs tomorrow.
Current model says it'll make landfall over Ocean Springs, MS. Not looking forward too it.
Current model says it'll make landfall over Ocean Springs, MS. Not looking forward too it.
The Sum of Zero
Member
Current warnings and advisories:
Dead Prince
Banned
Hopefully it shifts more east. Don't want the storm
Randolph Freelander
Member
Pagusas
Elden Member
So my wife and I are on the Cruise Ship Liberty of the Seas right now in the Gulf on the last few days of a 7 day cruise. We were suppose to stop in Cozumel but Nate caused our captain to skip the stop, push the boat to full throttle and get 110 notical miles of space between us and it. Right now we safe and Im not worried about it causing us too many issue, the captain has cut back the throttle and given us an extra day at sea in place of the missed stopped, basically going to coast into Galveston for a Sunday morning docking.
Smiles and Cries
Member
this thing did not leave us any time for guessing games at all with landfall coming up so soon
even the paths agree so weird
stay safe Gulf-GAF
Was just wondering. This is old info and based on general Atlantic trends which may differ from Gulf storms, but still.
Forward speed of Atlantic hurricanes averaged by 5 degree Latitude Speed
20°-25°N ||| 17.5 km/hr |9.4 knt |10.8 mph |8602 cases
The most recent update on, Nate.
23.5 N @ 22MPH
Forward speed of Atlantic hurricanes averaged by 5 degree Latitude Speed
20°-25°N ||| 17.5 km/hr |9.4 knt |10.8 mph |8602 cases
The most recent update on, Nate.
23.5 N @ 22MPH
Looks like Biloxi will get it now.
We have about 50,000 tourists in town. The curfew will now be enforced, it's only an attempt to keep the streets clear. Some rstaurants will be staying open. Most bars will be open. Most gigs have been cancelled.
Edit: *not be enforced