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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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A

AniHawk

Member
you know what? i have two weeks of vacation time i haven't used, and i've wanted to travel the united states a bit. it'd be fun to drop by dc for the inauguration. fun and stressful.
 
F

flashbandit16

Member
Clevinger said:
Instead of primaries of the two major parties, where only people registered in each party get to vote in the primary and choose the candidates for the general election, there would be a primary between every candidate regardless of party and everyone can vote in it.

The two candidates with the most votes go on to the general election.

I voted against this prop, but I may have been wrong (because I'm kinda dumb and all). See, I figured that in a red state like this it might screw things up. Right now there is one Republican and one Democrat chosen (so, one right leaning and one left leaning). So it being a very red state, I figured both of the most popular candidates would basically just be two Republicans, and it would hurt the chances of lefties in AZ.

Now I don't think I should have voted either way, because I don't really understand the ramifications. I mean, I get what it's doing, I just don't know how it would affect things; whether it'd ultimately be good or bad.

edit: To put it shortly, I'm dumb.
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This is exactly why I asked the question because I feared that only republicans would show up on the ballot. The thing is that republicans seem so against the proposition it confuses me. According to Wikipedia Louisiana has had the system since 1978 although California and Washington just change the system in 2010, so I am not sure if there is not enough data if it can be successful or not. I might just leave it blank on the ballot.

MagniHarvald said:
Vote YES. (I vote in WA)
Click to expand...
Did you notice any changes in this election then previous elections?
 
R

rodvik

Member
Anybody here listen to SiriusXM Left? I want some biased left leaning coverage for my drive home tomorrow and dont think I can stomach MSNBC but never listened to XM Left and I dont know how good it is.
 
A

Averon

Member
AlteredBeast said:
Well, ending my nightly Fox News watch and not one pundit they have had on has said Obama is going to win this. Not one out of some 10 they have talked to/about.

Wow!

I commend Glen Beck's co-host (not sure the name) that said he disagreed with Glenn and the other cohost and said he thought Obama would win with about 296 votes or something. I was pretty damn shocked.
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At one point I thought FoxNews and the conservative sphere were BSing with their ridiculous predictions. Romney wins every toss-up state!! Romney >300 EVs!!! Romney wins PV by 5%!!!

Hurricane Sandy gave them a perfect opportunity to backtrack to save face. Some did dip their toes in the Sandy-excuse pool, but nearly all of these conservatives pundits and writers either didn't change their wacky prediction or they doubled-down.

I thought they were just suckering their gullible base, but I think these people tricked themselves into believe their own lies and BS.
 
The Chosen One

The Chosen One

Member
God gawd, PoliGAF blew up today. Over 20 pages in just 7 hours...

Since I can't possibly read through all of this, what ended up being the final Gallop numbers? Did they use the break to make their numbers closer to reality?
 
D

dabig2

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
I don't want any tightening!!!

Stomach queasy...fuck this day
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Even going from +7 to +6 is "tightening". We saw the same things last election. And like last election, it PA will slip the rug out from the GOP's feet.

But I do love the entertainment of it all.

Officerrob said:
The OT thread is a mess and come tomorrow night will almost be as bad as an E3 Nintendo press conference thread. We need OT6
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Maybe an OT 5.5 if people want to save the next OT for Wednesday?
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Averon said:
At one point I thought FoxNews and the conservative sphere were BSing with their ridiculous predictions. Romney wins every toss-up state!! Romney >300 EVs!!! Romney wins PV by 5%!!!

Hurricane Sandy gave them a perfect opportunity to backtrack to save face. Some did dip their toes in the Sandy-excuse pool, but nearly all of these conservatives pundits and writers either didn't change their wacky prediction or they doubled-down.

I thought they where just suckering their gullible base, but I think these people tricked themselves into believe their own lies and BS.
Click to expand...

I thought Sandy was the perfect opportunity for them to save face, but when you have a candidate as dishonest as any in history, they obviously don't care about credibility, reputation, or history anymore.

Dick Morris, Barone, Rush Limbaugh, Hannity, the yuk yuks from The Five, Glenn Beck, etc. will all be back on November 7th talking instead of stolen elections, possible voter fraud, rock star Obama, 47%, etc.

Sad country we live in folks.
 
A

Averon

Member
The Chosen One said:
God gawd, PoliGAF blew up today. Over 20 pages in just 7 hours...

Since I can't possibly read through all of this, what ended up being the final Gallop numbers? Did they use the break to make their numbers closer to reality?
Click to expand...

Final Gallup

LV
Romney 49
Obama 48

RV
Obama 49
Romney 46
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
I caution everyone from poking the beehive.

Let's take the election talk to the Election OT and we will make the new thread Wednesday morning...
 
S

Socreges

Banned
At approximately what time do people begin to 'call' the election (unless certain swing states are remarkably close)? 7pm PST is what I'd guess, but really can't remember. Or is it different each election based on new voting technologies/reporting?
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Then let's just get on with it and create the new thread, At this point, this thread is just going to stumble to 20k based on Should we or shouldn't we talk.

Final votes for thread title?

I vote for |OT6| Return of the Jedi. Get some coherence with our PoliGAF election threads. I even have two terrible photoshops ready...
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
Socreges said:
At approximately what time do people begin to 'call' the election (unless certain swing states are remarkably close)? 7pm PST is what I'd guess, but really can't remember.
Click to expand...

Obama can't win until 8pm PST at the earliest. At that time he will get all the California, Oregon, and Washington electoral votes.
 
S

Smiley90

Stop shitting on my team. Start shitting on my finger.
Socreges said:
At approximately what time do people begin to 'call' the election (unless certain swing states are remarkably close)? 7pm PST is what I'd guess, but really can't remember. Or is it different each election based on new voting technologies/reporting?
Click to expand...

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G12/closing.phtml?format=gc

Results should start coming it soon after the polls close, depending on how close the state is.

(Feels weird answering one of your questions in here.)

EDIT: Ah nvm, you meant the whole election, not individual states. Then, yeah, I'd assume once Florida/Ohio are called, and California is in. Then, very officially. Inofficially, as soon as either Florida or Ohio are called for Obama, it's over.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
AlteredBeast said:
Then let's just get on with it and create the new thread, At this point, this thread is just going to stumble to 20k based on Should we or shouldn't we talk.

Final votes for thread title?

I vote for |OT6| Return of the Jedi. Get some coherence with our PoliGAF election threads. I even have two terrible photoshops ready...
Click to expand...

|OT6| OHIO, OHIO, OHIO
 
J

jiggle

Member
Socreges said:
At approximately what time do people begin to 'call' the election (unless certain swing states are remarkably close)? 7pm PST is what I'd guess, but really can't remember. Or is it different each election based on new voting technologies/reporting?
Click to expand...

as early as 4 - 5 pm PST, 4 years ago

edit: oh nvm, u didn't mean state by state
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
I still like:

PoliGAF |OT| Welcome to GAF, Mr. Drudge.



http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ New Silver article.


Among 12 national polls published on Monday, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.6 percentage points. Perhaps more important is the trend in the surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained 1.5 percentage points from the prior edition of the same polls, improving his standing in nine of the surveys while losing ground in just one.
Click to expand...
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
From Cook Report guy

@Redistrict
Turnout in VA's Obama counties 83.3% of '08, VA McCain 86.7% (3.4% gap). OH's Obama counties 96.7% of '08, OH McCain 114.4% (17.7% gap).
Click to expand...

OHIO EARLY VOTE: In Obama's 10 best counties, turnout is down -6.5% vs. '08. Everywhere else, turnout is up 10.5%:
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@JayCostTWS
Strong Dem counties netted 323k votes over strong GOP counties in 2008; in 2012 they've netted 196k votes.
Click to expand...

OH EARLY VOTE: Still, it's telling early vote down -7.2% in Cuyahoga (Cleveland), -12.5% in Franklin (Columbus), up everywhere else
Click to expand...

Those last two are the big Dem counties.

Explanation of higher Repub numbers:
@Taniel
On OH early voting comparisons: RT @rickhasen Many R counties did not have early voting last time. Husted imposed it as uniform measure.
Click to expand...

But still the turnout in Cleveland and Columbus counties is troubling.
 
S

Socreges

Banned
Officerrob said:
Obama can't win until 8pm PST at the earliest. At that time he will get all the California, Oregon, and Washington electoral votes.
Click to expand...
But don't they do polling outside of the buildings to get a statistically significant sample and extrapolate who's going to win certain states well in advance? If so, couldn't we know a bit earlier who's going to win based on, for example, a significant Obama lead in Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado?
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Socreges said:
But don't they do polling outside of the buildings to get a statistically significant sample and extrapolate who's going to win certain states well in advance? If so, couldn't we know a bit earlier who's going to win based on, for example, a significant Obama lead in Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado?
Click to expand...

Exit polls are notoriously unreliable.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
Socreges said:
But don't they do polling outside of the buildings to get a statistically significant sample and extrapolate who's going to win certain states well in advance? If so, couldn't we know a bit earlier who's going to win based on, for example, a significant Obama lead in Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado?
Click to expand...

Exit polling is going to be a complete mess this year with 40% of the vote already in because of early voting.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
http://election.princeton.edu/

ELECTORAL PREDICTION (mode): Barack Obama 332 EV, Mitt Romney 206 EV. The mode is the single most frequent value on the histogram. It corresponds to the map below, and has a chance of being exactly correct.

ELECTORAL PREDICTION (median): Obama 309 EV, Romney 229 EV, Popular Vote Meta-Margin Obama +2.34%. This is the automatically-generated snapshot for November 5th 8:00pm. This prediction is almost guaranteed to be off, since 309 EV is not a common combination.
Click to expand...

This guy only missed 1 EV (NE-2) in 2008 (better than Silver)
 
S

speculawyer

Member
AlteredBeast said:
I thought Sandy was the perfect opportunity for them to save face, but when you have a candidate as dishonest as any in history, they obviously don't care about credibility, reputation, or history anymore.

Dick Morris, Barone, Rush Limbaugh, Hannity, the yuk yuks from The Five, Glenn Beck, etc. will all be back on November 7th talking instead of stolen elections, possible voter fraud, rock star Obama, 47%, etc.

Sad country we live in folks.
Click to expand...

Yeah, the lack of accountability is sad. Even Rachel Maddow said Romney could win tomorrow on tonight's show. Have a little humility.

But nope . . . balls to the wall in confident prediction. And if they are all wrong, they'll just act as if it is all someone else's fault . . . illegals voting, Sandy, ACORN, etc.
 
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