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[Beer Monkey]

So you're saying we're going to see a $300 PS3 at MGS4 launch?

I think there's the possibility of PS3 getting the shit beat of of them by 360 this Christmas, but I'm not betting on it.

Nov/Dec NPD predictions are going to be a real bitch.

And man, I sure wish we had real EuroNumbers.

 

[Brakara]

I think there's the possibility of PS3 getting the shit beat of of them by 360 this Christmas, but I'm not betting on it.

Yeah, me neither. PS3 beaten? Sure. Getting the shit beat out of them? No. I wouldn't be surprised to see PS3 hit the same numbers as 360 did last year, and see 360 increase the sales by perhaps 40% (give or take 10%).

 

[Loudninja]

Yeah, me neither. PS3 beaten? Sure. Getting the shit beat out of them? No. I wouldn't be surprised to see PS3 hit the same numbers as 360 did last year, and see 360 increase the sales by perhaps 40% (give or take 10%).

Yeah, even with tis high price tag and lack of games, its sold 490.7k last December

 

[AdmiralViscen]

By pricing it in the manner they did, they never intended for it to sell 100 million consoles. So, to judge it by the historic success of the PS2 is flawed.

That's not what was being said summer 2006.

Yeah, even with tis high price tag and lack of games, its sold 490.7k last December

That was a hardware launch :lol

 

[gkryhewy]

Yeah, me neither. PS3 beaten? Sure. Getting the shit beat out of them? No. I wouldn't be surprised to see PS3 hit the same numbers as 360 did last year, and see 360 increase the sales by perhaps 40% (give or take 10%).

Didn't 360 sell a million consoles last December on the back of Gears? If PS3 sniffs 500k Sony should be THRILLED.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

Didn't 360 sell a million consoles last November on the back of Gears?

No. It was ~550k and 1.1M for Nov/Dec.

 

[gkryhewy]

No. It was ~550k and 1.1M for Nov/Dec.

Sorry for the stealth edit! They sold 1.1M in December alone.

 

[ToxicAdam]

That's not what was being said summer 2006.

:lol

Who was saying this? The same people that promised 4D and 120 FPS?

 

[Brakara]

Didn't 360 sell a million consoles last December on the back of Gears? If PS3 sniffs 500k Sony should be THRILLED.

Well, November usually doubles the October sales. And with the price cut, I think PS3 would have double sales in a normal month. So 500k for November should be doable. And then 1 million again for December (since December usually doubles November again).

And do we know if Gears drove the Holiday sales for 360 last year, or if it was vice versa (people picked up Gears along with their shiny new console). Are new IPs really system sellers in their first month or two on the market?

 

[Beer Monkey]

If they can't sell 1.1 million units this December with a $399 SKU, they've still got serious trouble in NA and it's an indicator as to how the generation is going to wind up here, IMO. Sure, 360 has Gears but the Playstation brand has a huge legacy and purportedly millions and millions more dedicated fans than Xbox does.

 

[antiloop]

Who was saying this? The same people that promised 4D and 120 FPS?

The 4th dimension is time. If your TV can do 120 FPS, PS3 can too. It's only for movies though.

So it's true.

 

[gkryhewy]

Well, November usually doubles the October sales. And with the price cut, I think PS3 would have double sales in a normal month. So 500k for November should be doable. And then 1 million again for December (since December usually doubles November again).

And do we know if Gears drove the Holiday sales for 360 last year, or if it was vice versa (people picked up Gears along with their shiny new console). Are new IPs really system sellers in their first month or two on the market?

I think you're presuming too much doubling based on a temporary price-drop bump, but obviously we'll see. I think Gears was clearly a system seller due to the reviews, hype, and marketing, but you're right that its share of the Nov/Dec 1.6+M sales is questionable.

 

[Loudninja]

That's not what was being said summer 2006.



That was a hardware launch :lol

So what? that means nothing at all.They would have sold even more if they did not have shortages

 

[Parl]

Well, November usually doubles the October sales. And with the price cut, I think PS3 would have double sales in a normal month. So 500k for November should be doable. And then 1 million again for December (since December usually doubles November again).

And do we know if Gears drove the Holiday sales for 360 last year, or if it was vice versa (people picked up Gears along with their shiny new console). Are new IPs really system sellers in their first month or two on the market?

1 million PS3's in December?

But remember that November is set artificially high (meaning, out of trend) because of the price drop. December to November ratio for PS3 will be lower than for 360.

 

[Pureauthor]

By pricing it in the manner they did, they never intended for it to sell 100 million consoles. So, to judge it by the historic success of the PS2 is flawed.

I'm pretty sure they intended for it to not be tracking below the Gamecube, though.

 

[AstroLad]

I'm pretty sure they intended for it to not be tracking below the Gamecube, though.

Well if you think in terms of dollars it's like three GCs, so it's blowing it out of the water. Bingo.

 

[Pureauthor]

Well if you think in terms of dollars it's like three GCs, so it's blowing it out of the water. Bingo.

Yeah, but if you think in terms of the super-special awesome magical candy rainbows it's like half a GC.

Also it's not purple - that's minus three Duke Nukem points right there.

 

[Phoenix Down]

Since this is a worldwide sales thread.. Out of the 360 and PS3 which console is most likely to sell the most worldwide this holiday?

 

[quetz67]

I'm pretty sure they intended for it to not be tracking below the Gamecube, though.

sure not, but the GC had it's high time early in its life, while PS3 sales probably increase with lower price and good software support (which was a problem on GC)

 

[gkryhewy]

So what? that means nothing at all.

You are clearly beyond the reach of logic.

Since this is a worldwide sales thread.. Out of the 360 and PS3 which console is most likely to sell the most worldwide this holiday?

I'll say 360 just so that I see your FF sad face avatar again and have it make sense next to your post.

 

[Pureauthor]

Since this is a worldwide sales thread.. Out of the 360 and PS3 which console is most likely to sell the most worldwide this holiday?

I'd say 360 based on USA and Japan, but I can't say for Europe due to lack of numbers.

 

[Pureauthor]

So what? that means nothing at all.They would have sold even more if they did not have shortages

Well, guess what? They did have shortages, and it's their own fault that a good potential sales period was wasted by having shortages.

 

[frankthurk]

Since this is a worldwide sales thread.. Out of the 360 and PS3 which console is most likely to sell the most worldwide this holiday?

360, but not by a lot... well probably by a lot in NA, but balanced out by Japan+Europe.

 

[Loudninja]

Well, guess what? They did have shortages, and it's their own fault that a good potential sales period was wasted by having shortages.

Yeah

 

[Beer Monkey]

Well, guess what? They did have shortages, and it's their own fault that a good potential sales period was wasted by having shortages.

Meh, they didn't even have much of a shortage. They had a five week shortage, if that, where PS2 and 360 had a ~five month shortage.

 

[AstroLad]

Yeah, but if you think in terms of the super-special awesome magical candy rainbows it's like half a GC.

Also it's not purple - that's minus three Duke Nukem points right there.

I don't even know how you would even begin to quantify asthetic factors like that (though I'm sure nintoads would try if it made their console look better), much less put them into a detailed spreadsheet for projections like I keep--but I like to stick with hard evidence like dollars and cents, consumer perception, news, conferences, exc.

But then again this is GAF I've seen everything. :lol

 

[Koren]

By pricing it in the manner they did, they never intended for it to sell 100 million consoles. So, to judge it by the historic success of the PS2 is flawed.

I really really doubt they didn't wanted to sell 100 million consoles lifetime for PS3.

I think they expected a slow beginning, and reaching these numbers in several years, after the price would have reached ~$200. They didn't expected that people would be ready to buy other consoles instead of waiting for a cheaper PS3 (and instead staying ith PS2 for a couple of years).

 

[Saitou]

Well, guess what? They did have shortages, and it's their own fault that a good potential sales period was wasted by having shortages.

bubububububu teh sony!

non-edit:

Yeah

Yeah





You need a reality check, son. Perhaps perusing ps3forums' archive dating c. August 2006?

 

[Loudninja]

bubububububu teh sony!

non-edit:

Yeah





You need a reality check, son. Perhaps perusing ps3forums' archive dating c. August 2006?

What the fuck is you deal? I agree with him

 

[tanod]

Since this is a worldwide sales thread.. Out of the 360 and PS3 which console is most likely to sell the most worldwide this holiday?

Because of Europe, the world may never know. They do release quarterly numbers for some countries though.

Really, once a company gets past that critical mass for development of 10-15 million, exact numbers aren't gonna matter so much as the shipped figures we get from the manufacturers, especially since Sony started using regular shipped numbers.

 

[Pureauthor]

I don't even know how you would even begin to quantify asthetic factors like that (though I'm sure nintoads would try if it made their console look better), much less put them into a detailed spreadsheet for projections like I keep--but I like to stick with hard evidence like dollars and cents, consumer perception, news, conferences, exc.

But then again this is GAF I've seen everything. :lol

Man, you're being constrained by the corporeal. That's so, like, limiting.

Here, I'll mail you some of my blue plants and you can smoke 'em. Then you too shall gain enlightment and a third nostril.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

If they can't sell 1.1 million units this December with a $399 SKU, they've still got serious trouble in NA and it's an indicator as to how the generation is going to wind up here, IMO.

I know some people hate the comparison, but... GameCube hit 1.1 million in December all of once, and that took a $99 system and the Zelda disc packed in.

 

[Loudninja]

Because of Europe, the world may never know. They do release quarterly numbers for some countries though.

Really, once a company gets past that critical mass for development of 10-15 million, exact numbers aren't gonna matter so much as the shipped figures we get from the manufacturers, especially since Sony started using regular shipped numbers.

If ony does well, they will let people know :lol

Pureauthor what is your predictions for this xmas?

 

[Beer Monkey]

If ony does well, they will let people know :lol

PR numbers should be valued as much as horseshit, there's too much opportunity for 'creative accounting'. If it isn't from an independent source like NPD, Chart Track, or Media Create, it doesn't mean squat.

 

[gkryhewy]

a detailed spreadsheet for projections like I keep

How can you say something like this and not share?

 

[Arsenal]

They learned at least one thing from the PSP, and I feel it's incredibly valuable: They've responded to weak market reception with speedy price drops. I firmly believe the PSP wouldn't be trailing the DS nearly as much had they been more timely with their price drop and subsequent redesign.

This is probably true, but you have to remember that the PSP is profitable for Sony and has been from very early on. GAF may look at the product as a failure, but Sony is looking at it as a profitable platform from the get-go and the marketshare numbers are really not that bad at all considering it is their first product in the market against a very entrenched competitor.

PS3 is really in a different boat. Its marketshare is well below its predecessor and it is not even remotely close to being profitable. Competition is higher in the console market dev support is harder to come by. The only bright spot in this is really that it looks like the console has allowed them to maintain an advantage in the HD format war (although I imagine they are dissappointed that they have not 'won' outright yet).

 

[plagiarize]

as far as this christmas goes, personally i'm not prepared to make a call before we see how the 40 gig ps3 starts selling in japan and america... because that could make all the difference.

 

[Loudninja]

as far as this christmas goes, personally i'm not prepared to make a call before we see how the 40 gig ps3 starts selling in japan and america... because that could make all the difference.

Yeah I agree

 

[titiklabingapat]

By pricing it in the manner they did, they never intended for it to sell 100 million consoles. So, to judge it by the historic success of the PS2 is flawed.

Bullshitest bullshit that ever bullshitted on the bullshit planet.

They thought they could get away charging that much and still sell 100m.

 

[Phoenix Down]

Sony Predicts they can sell 1 million in the UK alone this holiday.. considering its there first holiday and they have a good price.. i think they can exceed that goal

Overall all i see sony selling more Worldwide.. japan numbers will be interesting because of the pricedrop, White sku, and GT5P

November NPD we will see sony outsell MS because of the price drop frenzy... December NPD will be REALLY close between them.... Somebody book mark this

 

[antiloop]

Bullshitest bullshit that ever bullshitted on the bullshit planet.

They thought they could get away charging that much and still sell 100m.

I believe they said 5 million without games. I don't remember anything about 100m personally

 

[gkryhewy]

Sony Predicts they can sell 1 million in the UK alone this holiday.. considering its there first holiday and they have a good price.. i think they can exceed that goal

Wow, that's insane IMO. Maybe ship?

November NPD we will see sony outsell MS because of the price drop frenzy... December NPD will be REALLY close between them.... Somebody book mark this

Wrong on both counts IMO. Do you really expect a price drop frenzy?

 

[mr_bishiuk]

I cant see Ps3 sales being all that great, I dont think Unchartered and Ratchet will really drive sales. COD4 will be good for the existing userbase but players into that franchise already have a 360 largely. Ratchet its already 31 on Amazon which must be a bit worrying for Sony.

In the NPDs I reckon the 360 will do 2m to 2.5m in Nov&Dec (combined) partly due to the arcade Sku picking up out of stock Wii sales. I think the PS3 will come out at about 1m for the two months but then the PS3 has come out lower than my guess for every month since launch!

Its pointless guessing Nintendo sales it really depends on what they ship and what they have saved up for Christmas.

 

[mr_bishiuk]

Sony Predicts they can sell 1 million in the UK alone this holiday.. considering its there first holiday and they have a good price.. i think they can exceed that goal

Overall all i see sony selling more Worldwide.. japan numbers will be interesting because of the pricedrop, White sku, and GT5P

November NPD we will see sony outsell MS because of the price drop frenzy... December NPD will be REALLY close between them.... Somebody book mark this

You are off your head! 1m in the UK alone?!! My local Gamestation today has just moved the PS3 selfs from the 3 rows it had before to one row where the DS used to be, the 360 now has 5 rows!! Thats how much faith they have in the PS3! No one here is touching it, even at £299 there has not been a sale for a fortnight. £299 is still expensive to the PS2 userbase which is largely not a hardcore audience which laps up Fifa and PES and not a lot else!

 

[Culex]

By pricing it in the manner they did, they never intended for it to sell 100 million consoles. So, to judge it by the historic success of the PS2 is flawed.

They intended people to buy it in droves, regardless of the price.

 

[Phoenix Down]

Wow, that's insane IMO. Maybe ship?



Wrong on both counts IMO. Do you really expect a price drop frenzy?

Its the holiday so yes its possible

 

[theBishop]

as far as this christmas goes, personally i'm not prepared to make a call before we see how the 40 gig ps3 starts selling in japan and america... because that could make all the difference.

It depends a lot on the early buzz/marketing on Uncharted too.

PS3 has had a lot of awesome games this year that "are not quite a reason to buy a PS3" (review text). At $400 with Uncharted and GT5 Prologue still coming, PS3 is going into its first holiday with a much stronger library than 360 had. Holiday performance is going to be a question of momentum more than anything.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

It depends a lot on the early buzz/marketing on Uncharted too.

PS3 has had a lot of awesome games this year that "are not quite a reason to buy a PS3" (review text). At $400 with Uncharted and GT5 Prologue still coming, PS3 is going into its first holiday with a much stronger library than 360 had. Holiday performance is going to be a question of momentum more than anything.

You think Uncharted and GT5 Prologue are going to sell better than Gears of War and Call of Duty 3 did last year?

That's a tough one.

Sony Predicts they can sell 1 million in the UK alone this holiday.. considering its there first holiday and they have a good price.. i think they can exceed that goal

You mean 1 million lifetime right? The PS3 isn't going to push 1 million units in a single European country, in the UK alone that would be a >200% increase in userbase.

November NPD we will see sony outsell MS because of the price drop frenzy... December NPD will be REALLY close between them.... Somebody book mark this.

How much are you really expecting PS3 sales to improve with the price drop? If it's a shade over 500k in November (which would mean sales more than doubled for the price drop, and then doubled again for the usual holiday bump), I'm thinking the PS3 may still trail the 360 by over 250k units that month.

 

[hauton]

To spare me the Googling, anyone know offhand how much 360 had at this same point in it's lifespan?

 

[Phoenix Down]

You think Uncharted and GT5 Prologue are going to sell better than Gears of War and Call of Duty 3 did last year?

That's a tough one.



You mean 1 million lifetime right? The PS3 isn't going to push 1 million units in a single European country, in the UK alone that would be a >200% increase in userbase.



How much are you really expecting PS3 sales to improve with the price drop? If it's a shade over 500k in November (which would mean sales more than doubled for the price drop, and then doubled again for the usual holiday bump), I'm thinking the PS3 may still trail the 360 by over 250k units that month.

We will see come november/december