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[speculawyer]

Oh the humanity!

 

[gandda]

Sony's biggest itch, it seems to me, is the pendulum that swings back and forth between which divisions are carrying the other this time around. If Sony could post results in which each and every single division shows profit, then we'd be in for some good times.

But as far as this forum is concerned, when SCE finally posts a profit (and it will), we'll be talking about how Sony's cameras and TVs are facing stiff competition from Samsung's innovations and Toshiba's moneyhats.

 

[Gadfly]

http://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/07q2_eleki.pdf

Here's hardware / software totals in english.

Sony says they recently changed from shipped to sold numbers, and this would be sold to retailers.

So they are still forecasting 11 million PS3 for FY07. Impressive considering that means 2 million in first half of the year and 9 millions in the second half of the year.

Did I misread something?

 

[DCharlie]

this would be sold to retailers.

only from July onwards though.

The previous Q`s will still be counted under the old method right?

 

[Gadfly]

only from July onwards though.

The previous Q`s will still be counted under the old method right?

according to this report, both Q1 and Q2 are under new method.

for PS3:
Q1= .71 million, Q2 = 1.31 Million and Total forcast for FY07 = 11 Million.

 

[DCharlie]

ah. sorry - yes, last two Q`s.

I guess it still means we don`t have a clear picture of how many units are actually sold

 

[Tideas]

ah. sorry - yes, last two Q`s.

I guess it still means we don`t have a clear picture of how many units are actually sold

at least we know what's "at most"

 

[Gadfly]

ah. sorry - yes, last two Q`s.

I guess it still means we don`t have a clear picture of how many units are actually sold

Gradually it will not matter because the units in the channel are going to stay relatively the same.

What's interesting for me is the forecast for second half of the year being 9 million vs. actual 2 million shipped/sold for the first half of the year. I always believed in Sony's financial statements (not their PR) and I still do.

I must say going from 2 million to 9 million is very impressive even considering the second half includes holiday season and release of heavy hitters like MGS4, GTA, KZ2, etc.

 

[Vagabundo]

Yep, Ireland has a population of a whopping 4M! That's almost half of London! Big news indeed. But let's wait for the trends from Luxemburg before we jump to any conclusions.

Hey, nearly 5mil now. 80% of us live in Dublin. And dont lump us with Luxemburg, we're the most important country in the world.

Now be quiet or our celtic tiger will maul you....

 

[Panajev2001a]

ah. sorry - yes, last two Q`s.

I guess it still means we don`t have a clear picture of how many units are actually sold

We are not here to make a nice serious board meeting for financial advisers, here we react only with either "fireworks + mass hysteria" or "pictures of sinking ships + mass hysteria".

.

 

[speculawyer]

I must say going from 2 million to 9 million is very impressive even considering the second half includes holiday season and release of heavy hitters like MGS4, GTA, KZ2, etc.

Impressive? Or delusional? I guess we'll find out.

 

[quetz67]

So they are still forecasting 11 million PS3 for FY07. Impressive considering that means 2 million in first half of the year and 9 millions in the second half of the year.

Did I misread something?

2M vs 9M? dunno! for me it is 5.5M in a year at high price without many games and 5.5M in half a year at lower price and with some great games (hopefully incl. MGS4)

 

[Kodiak]

but see guys, 1 PS3 at 500 dollars is = to the cost of 2 Wiis, so then, if I do my maths correctly that means the number of PS3s sold is about 13 billion.

 

[Shepherd]

Goals have really changed. Remember when Sony said they would ship 4 Million PS3s by Dec 31 2006 and 6 Million by March 31 2007?

 

[J-Rzez]

Much better than expected considering price and bad perception given to the system thanks to the media and such... Maybe things will get interesting faster than expected with the new sku and the big name titles starting to finally hit shelves...

 

[Gadfly]

Impressive? Or delusional? I guess we'll find out.

From all people you should know better companies cannot afford to be delusional in their financial statement. They can ..umm.. get sued?

 

[TerryLee81]

Lightning is here, J-Rzez just arrived, now only the spinwolf is missing.

 

[Gadfly]

Goals have really changed. Remember when Sony said they would ship 4 Million PS3s by Dec 31 2006 and 6 Million by March 31 2007?

Yes I remember that. But that was PR and not financial statement. right? Still I am surprised they were never got called on those claims (some of which were made during PAL launch if I remember correctly). But maybe it had something to do with the way they started counting:lol

 

[Panajev2001a]

From all people you should know better companies cannot afford to be delusional in their financial statement. They can ..umm.. get sued?

As other have already said, I think Sony is not out of touch with reality in their IR statements, but for companies there is always the gray line of "forward looking statements" to help them against lawsuits .

 

[nofi]

Lightning is here, J-Rzez just arrived, now only the spinwolf is missing.

No spinning required, these are great figures, and will only get better with the price cut (although they'll probably make more losses). But hey - this is NeoGAF.

 

[quetz67]

Goals have really changed. Remember when Sony said they would ship 4 Million PS3s by Dec 31 2006 and 6 Million by March 31 2007?

yeah, I remember them being 0.5M short of both, but what has that to do with changed goals?

 

[Gadfly]

As other have already said, I think Sony is not out of touch with reality in their IR statements, but for companies there is always the gray line of "forward looking statements" to help them against lawsuits .

Yes you are allowed to be somewhat optimistic but you can only be off by so much in your forward looking statement and then not knowingly.

Remember how Microsoft had to adjust their forecasts as soon as they found out they are not going to make it? and they made the correction 6 months before the end of forecast period.

 

[titiklabingapat]

Sony's forecast's always been at 11M for the FY, iirc.

 

[Gadfly]

yeah, I remember them being 0.5M short of both, but what has that to do with changed goals?

Don't these numbers show they were short by a lot more?

FY 06:
Q3 = 1.66, Q4 = 1.91
Doesn't Q3 ends December 31st and Q4 ends March 31st?

 

[Sharp]

Um, okay, these aren't terrible figures but I'm not sure how they could be construed as "great." The Wii has "great" shipments and sales. The PS3 has "mediocre" shipments and sales, and it's kind of silly to try to paint them in a rosier light than they really should. Why is 5.5 million units shipped, worldwide, in nearly a year, a good thing? It's way off their original predictions, it's way off GAF's predictions, and it's way off from what the PS2 and Wii did in an equivalent timeframe.

 

[quetz67]

Don't these numbers show they were short by a lot more?

FY 06:
Q3 = 1.66, Q4 = 1.91
Doesn't Q3 ends December 31st and Q4 ends March 31st?

yes, with the new counting of course...but what they said by that time was basically "we will be able to produce 4M / 6M consoles by end of 2006 / end of march 2007" (which at that time seemed pretty hard with those blue laser shortages)

Shipping 11M by March 08 now means something completely different and cant really be compared

 

[quetz67]

Um, okay, these aren't terrible figures but I'm not sure how they could be construed as "great." The Wii has "great" shipments and sales. The PS3 has "mediocre" shipments and sales, and it's kind of silly to try to paint them in a rosier light than they really should. Why is 5.5 million units shipped, worldwide, in nearly a year, a good thing? It's way off their original predictions, it's way off GAF's predictions, and it's way off from what the PS2 and Wii did in an equivalent timeframe.

I dont think anyone thinks it is great. But it is hard to compare this to PS2 with a completely different pattern of worldwide launches

 

[Gadfly]

Um, okay, these aren't terrible figures but I'm not sure how they could be construed as "great." The Wii has "great" shipments and sales. The PS3 has "mediocre" shipments and sales, and it's kind of silly to try to paint them in a rosier light than they really should. Why is 5.5 million units shipped, worldwide, in nearly a year, a good thing? It's way off their original predictions, it's way off GAF's predictions, and it's way off from what the PS2 and Wii did in an equivalent timeframe.

But they will sell 9 million next two quarters. That's a lot of consoles even if they are off by 1 million.

 

[xaosslug]

gee, looks like things aren't so bad over at ol' Sony Corp. SONY AM DOOMED, PUT ON HOLD!

lol

 

[Thunder Monkey]

I dont think anyone thinks it is great. But it is hard to compare this to PS2 with a completely different pattern of worldwide launches

Even taking into account the staggered launches of the PS2... the PS3 falls way way behind.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

lol @ PSP tie ratio

 

[rakka]

Even taking into account the staggered launches of the PS2... the PS3 falls way way behind.

it also costs way way more than the PS2 (and the Wii) did. you really expect it to sell as fast?

 

[Gadfly]

yes, with the new counting of course...but what they said by that time was basically "we will be able to produce 4M / 6M consoles by end of 2006 / end of march 2007" (which at that time seemed pretty hard with those blue laser shortages)

Shipping 11M by March 08 now means something completely different and cant really be compared

So FY 06 Q3 and Q4 numbers have been adjusted to use the new method?

 

[DCharlie]

But they will sell 9 million next two quarters.

well, never say never, but 1.5 million units a month sales for the next 6 months would mean a hell of an increase from current sell through.

(ignoring holiday sales increases , actual sales trends etc)

Rough maths : This would mean that week on week Sony would have to sell what they are selling roughly per month right now, from every week starting now until the last week of march ... ?

 

[Jokeropia]

Do they ever list a PS2/PSP hardware total? Since they made the switch to listing "Shipped to retail" numbers I've only seen them give quarterly. Without a base to work from it's impossible to add them up to reach a total.

I've also been interested in this ever since they started giving normal shipment numbers. I'd especially like to know how much the production shipments inflated the PS2 LTD.

 

[quetz67]

So FY 06 Q3 and Q4 numbers have been adjusted to use the new method?

dont think so...found this very helpful (thanks Joshua):

http://joshuajamesslone.name/gamech...temregion[0]=PS3_WWold&systemregion[1]=PS3_WW

 

[Grayman]

well, never say never, but 1.5 million units a month sales for the next 6 months would mean a hell of an increase from current sell through.

(ignoring holiday sales increases , actual sales trends etc)

They are dropping to the magical $399 mark. That is a completely different ballgame from $599 and $499.

I don't sales age so I don't know how crazy 1.5m a month is, but a big jump away from 180k seems reasonable.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

it also costs way way more than the PS2 (and the Wii) did. you really expect it to sell as fast?

Did I say that?

It's no ones fault but the those at Sony in charge of the PS3. Coming hot off the heels of the PS2 nothing short of a disaster could stop the PS3 from making a dent. Unfortunately, $599 seemed to be a huge disaster.

I never expected it to sell at that price... but the damage is now done, and it won't likely ever sell because of that damaged mindshare.

 

[Tyrannical]

They are dropping to the magical $399 mark. That is a completely different ballgame from $599 and $499.

I don't sales age so I don't know how crazy 1.5m a month is, but a big jump away from 180k seems reasonable.

$199 is the magical mark.

$399 - $599 is still too expensive, to varying degrees.

 

[nofi]

$199 is the magical mark.

$399 - $599 is still too expensive, to varying degrees.

$199 is completely ridiculous.

 

[Gadfly]

dont think so...found this very helpful (thanks Joshua):

http://joshuajamesslone.name/gamech...temregion[0]=PS3_WWold&systemregion[1]=PS3_WW

Then you agree that they were way off in their claim that they will sell/ship (whatever) 6 million by March 31st 07?

 

[DCharlie]

I think MS discovered that $399 -still- isn`t the magic spot either.

I expect an upturn in PS3`s fortunes but i certainly don`t see it going as high as Sony expect (due to a number of factors : Still the most expensive, people REALLY like Nintendo these days, the Wii is always going to make X360/PS3 look like the expensive option whilst it remains the most popular etc)

we shall see i guess.

Then you agree that they were way off in their claim that they will sell/ship (whatever) 6 million by March 31st 07?

9 million - they are targetting 11 million in this fiscal year, they are at 2 million at end of Q2.

 

[rakka]

Unfortunately, $599 seemed to be a huge disaster.
I never expected it to sell at that price... but the damage is now done, and it won't likely ever sell because of that damaged mindshare.

5 million+ consoles sold a disaster now?

 

[Kosma]

How well ?

According to these numbers (1.3M in Q2 FY07) and NPD numbers, over 50% of PS3s manufactured during the latest 3 months were shipped to retailers in Europe, which means PS3 sales in Europe are actually bigger than US and Japan combined.

Do you believe that ? I call this bullshit.

Why?

The PS2 sold more units here then in the US.

I don't think it's possible.

Europe's game market share is smaller than NA/Japan combined and PS3 is actually outsold by 360 in the biggest market there (UK, about 35%? No?). Considering these facts, how retailers there can still sell more PS3s in Europe as a whole is still a myth to me.

Uhm actually this year the PS3 and 360 sold about as much in the UK, and while the UK is the single biggest market here, it still is only roughly 20% of the whole EU market.

 

[AniHawk]

5 million+ consoles sold a disaster now?

They had 5m shipped as of last March apparently. So that's 6 months the sold number had to catch up to the shipped number.

 

[max-pain]

WTF?
The PS3 tie ratio is 5? This can't be right.

 

[legend166]

From all people you should know better companies cannot afford to be delusional in their financial statement. They can ..umm.. get sued?

But they can be stupid. Just because they're a company and this is a financial statement doesn't mean they are immune from stupidity.

Sony have already shown they can be stupid by pricing the PS3 at $600 to begin with.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

5 million+ consoles sold a disaster now?

Well... again coming off of the heels of the PS2... yes it is.

The PS3 was never going to sell like the PS2, but you'd think it'd hold some clout being the successor to the most successful console of all time.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

Remember this is shipped to retailers, not sold to consumers. 5.5 mil is not good when the real number of actual sales is more like 4mil!

 

[DCharlie]

25 million software units sold , 5 million h/w units for a tie ration of 5.

I wonder what sold what to make 25 million sales?

circa 40 official games to date right?
625,000 average per game?

um.... that doesn`t sound right?

Includes downloadable online games maybe?