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September 2010 NPD Article (Gamasutra) - Includes Jan-Sep 2010 Top Sellers

J

jvm

Gamasutra.
I did what I could with the latest NPD Group figures for September 2010 retail sales. Gamasutra is graciously hosting the article:
Direct link to Gamasutra story about September 2010 NPD data.
Some stuff folks might be interested in:
  • Top 10 SKUs YTD as of September 2010.
  • Xbox 360 software sales appear ahead of Wii for the year. (My estimate.)
  • Sports Champions (standalone) at 20K for the month. This means, looking at Jim Reilly's IGN article, that EyePet also did greater than 20K for the month. Including Sports Champions wand/camera bundles, I'd guess that's at least 140K right there, but I can't say for sure.
  • PSP hardware units down 44%, yoy. Is that enough to get one more month of HW predictions computed?

An image from the article:
the-great-race-2010.png


As always, I'm up for corrections, comments, etc. Please don't take a lack of immediate response personally -- I may simply not be here. (Today will be exceptionally busy for me.) My overlordseditors will probably be watching the thread, so changes may happen without a direct response from me.

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
2007: Oct Nov Dec
2008: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
 
Thanks for the article, jvm.

2008 was when the music games were all the rage right? Seems like the revenue this year will be similar to 2007 according to the bar graph.
 
Little Green Yoda said:
Thanks for the article, jvm.

2008 was when the music games were all the rage right? Seems like the revenue this year will be similar to 2007 according to the bar graph.
Click to expand...
Correct. Music revenue was down last year, and waaaaaaaaay down (about 70% YTD) this year.
 
jvm said:
Correct. Music revenue was down last year, and waaaaaaaaay down (about 70% YTD) this year.
Click to expand...
Any way to estimate the impact of that decline on total industry sales? I'd be curious as to how much of the overall industry software retail sales drop is attributable to the drop in music sales; it would help measure just how broad-based the decline has been.
 
GhaleonEB said:
Any way to estimate the impact of that decline on total industry sales? I'd be curious as to how much of the overall industry software retail sales drop is attributable to the drop in music sales; it would help measure just how broad-based the decline has been.
Click to expand...
According to Mr. Pachter, it accounts for about 3/4 of the shortfall this year. (I didn't check if that was software-only, but I'm guessing it is.)
 
jvm said:
According to Mr. Pachter, it accounts for about 3/4 of the shortfall this year. (I didn't check if that was software-only, but I'm guessing it is.)
Click to expand...

That's an astonishing figure, if true.

[*]PSP hardware units down 44%, yoy. Is that enough to get one more month of HW predictions computed?
Click to expand...

PSP2 announcement incoming.
 
jvm said:
According to Mr. Pachter, it accounts for about 3/4 of the shortfall this year. (I didn't check if that was software-only, but I'm guessing it is.)
Click to expand...
Wow. Much more stacked toward the music business than I had expected; I'd forgotten just how huge it was the past few years. That puts the overall decline from last year, sans music games, at about 2%. Thanks.
 
Good read, especially the 360 and move analysis, even with the limited data this month.

Guevara said:
Wow at Xbox 360 over Wii.
Click to expand...

Should be interesting to see where things go. I'm little more surprised at that 30% software difference than anything at this point.
 
Sports Champions selling that bad somehow makes me proud of belonging to the elit that owns this game.
 
article said:
Just as impressive is the fact that the average price for the Xbox 360 has remained at least $60 above the the average price for the Wii during this period. Given that many Xbox 360 systems are purchased without a pack-in game, the entry-level cost for Microsoft's system is even higher, especially when all Wii systems come with not one but two pack-in first-party games.
Click to expand...
But guys, price cuts are the solution! Nintendo needs to cut prices even further! Right? Right!?
 
jvm said:
Correct. Music revenue was down last year, and waaaaaaaaay down (about 70% YTD) this year.
Click to expand...

If only Activision hadn't ran the GH franchise into the ground... This kind of volatility probably doesn't attract too many potential investors to the industry.
 
Synth_floyd said:
They say Move controller sales were about 300k in September. Interesting.
Click to expand...

Indeed, though based off the Pachter estimate. Though with the numbers here(the hard SW data sale through) and that I would say not totally off base wih it.
 
120k - 150k wouldn't be too bad for Sports Champions if it can keep going at that pace for a couple more months beyond the holidays (obviously).
 
Little Green Yoda said:
If only Activision hadn't ran the GH franchise into the ground... This kind of volatility probably doesn't attract too many potential investors to the industry.
Click to expand...

They didn't drive it into the ground. They just mined it for all it was worth. I mean the games were only going to be super popular for so long. They just took advantage of it while they could. Since Guitar Hero 1 there have only been 2 big advancements in the genre. Master Tracks and multiple instruments. Since those two things came out all the games are the same but with different songs. The fad was bound to die down eventually and you can't blame Activision for trying to get as much money out of it while they could.
 
jvm said:
  • Xbox 360 software sales appear ahead of Wii for the year. (My estimate.)
Click to expand...

I've recently updated my own estimates, and they're close enough in mine to not dispute this statement. :) Wii will finish the year on top due to another 20m+ December, but software has been tanking overall on Wii the last few months. (Edit: To clarify, tanking compared to what it used to do, which in absolute terms is somewhere around PS3 software unit levels per month.)

In case anyone was wondering, this is units. $-wise, 360 has been ahead for 2-3 months?

jvm said:
  • PSP hardware units down 44%, yoy. Is that enough to get one more month of HW predictions computed?
Click to expand...

Should be. Will try to remember to look into it tonight. Thanks! :)
 
donny2112 said:
In case anyone was wondering, this is units. $-wise, 360 has been ahead for 2-3 months?
Click to expand...

He has it down as;

On just a dollar sales basis, Microsoft's console appears to be outselling the Wii by 30% so far in 2010.

...we believe that 2 to 3 million more units of Xbox 360 software have been sold so far in 2010 than for the Wii.
Click to expand...

Cash wise I believe it's little more than 2-3 months. In fact I thought they were ahead cash wise all the way through May. I maybe wrong about this.
 
donny2112 said:
I've recently updated my own estimates, and they're close enough in mine to not dispute this statement. :)
Click to expand...
Article said:
we believe that 2 to 3 million more units of Xbox 360 software have been sold so far in 2010 than for the Wii.
Click to expand...

That I'll dispute. I don't think it's quite that much of an advantage, if 360 is ahead at all. It comes down to your estimates vs. my estimates based on someone else's estimates, though. :lol

Jtyettis said:
Cash wise I believe it's little more than 2-3 months.
Click to expand...

Looking at it, they were essentially tied in revenue in May, and 360's been ahead since.

Edit:
i.e. A huge chunk of the difference is Reach. :)
 
Move hasn't done much for PS3 then while Xbox while DEFINITELY feel a nice bump from Kinect. Microsoft's marketing gear is in full power and has already "eaten" the mind of the normal customer, something Sony not only failed with Move but with the regular Playstation until Slim came out, and that is losing steam against Xbox. AKA: Sony will keep 3rd place in USA. Worldwide its closer, but the overall advantage stills stands, enough to close the gap worldwide.

So after all is said and done Kinect>Move. Sony, in my opinion, will fail spectacularly with Move, while Kinect at least saleswide will be a success.

Just my analysis, and before fanboys jump at me... I own all 3 consoles and I don't give a shit who "wins".
 
Relix said:
So after all is said and done Kinect>Move. Sony, in my opinion, will fail spectacularly with Move, while Kinect at least saleswide will be a success.
Click to expand...
Not even close. Move will get a nice jostle of support with Killzone and SOCOM next year while Kinect will fade off with hardly any exclusive Kinect supported games in the pipeline around the same time. It'll be a smash holiday hit for sure, but it won't last though next year.
 
chubigans said:
Kinect will fade off with hardly any exclusive Kinect supported games in the pipeline around the same time. It'll be a smash holiday hit for sure, but it won't last though next year.
Click to expand...

Pointer > motion, so Wii = Move > Kinect, for me. That said, are we really going back to the "360 Kinect is so done next year. There's nothing announced for it!" line of thinking? It seems like 360 gets denounced every year as "this is the last year!" since nothing is announced for it next year. Then stuff gets announced for it.

Not saying that there'll be a wave of Kinect titles announced soon to blot out the sun or something, but considering the past history with applying that logic to 360, the reasoning seems a little specious.
 
I clicked. Loaded now. Had to read this article that's written in a post NPD sales age death. I remember reading you saying you still had to write it.

great write up. MS is on fire for sure.

The 300k move sales number through around by pachter = not bad.

Considering DeadRising on 3 platforms sold 370k. And new metroid pretty much bombed.

Move is going to keep sellling on the basis of forthcoming software too.


wish this statement was quantified on some level though.

We estimate that total sales of Sports Champions, including accessory bundles and hardware bundles, reached into the 100,000 to 150,000 unit range during September 2010. However, precise figures are not – and probably will not ever be – publicly available.
Click to expand...

If you've got nothing to pull from, how did you get those numbers?
 
Synth_floyd said:
They didn't drive it into the ground. They just mined it for all it was worth. I mean the games were only going to be super popular for so long. They just took advantage of it while they could. Since Guitar Hero 1 there have only been 2 big advancements in the genre. Master Tracks and multiple instruments. Since those two things came out all the games are the same but with different songs. The fad was bound to die down eventually and you can't blame Activision for trying to get as much money out of it while they could.
Click to expand...
You forget Rock Band's hand in the destruction.
 
Amir0x said:
with Microsoft throwing $500 million in marketing, and having an Opera spot, i think it now is going to do damn well
Click to expand...

That's exactly it. MS went all-in with Kinect. They're truly betting that Kinect will give Xbox 360 some extra years in its life cycle. Sony seems to be much more conservative with their approach to Move, so the expected results should reflect the different strategies of each company.
 
Amir0x said:
with Microsoft throwing $500 million in marketing, and having an Opera spot, i think it now is going to do damn well
Click to expand...
I'd hate to see what kind of Opera singers they get for the campaign. (I know you were referring to Oprah. Couldn't resist. Sorry.)
 
I can't possibly understand why people are attributing the great 360 sales to Kinect. You really don't think it's due to the general uptick from the Slim release + new Halo game?
 
chubigans said:
Not even close. Move will get a nice jostle of support with Killzone and SOCOM next year while Kinect will fade off with hardly any exclusive Kinect supported games in the pipeline around the same time. It'll be a smash holiday hit for sure, but it won't last though next year.
Click to expand...
There's a ton of Kinect stuff in development. The system will certainly not want for support.

legend166 said:
I can't possibly understand why people are attributing the great 360 sales to Kinect. You really don't think it's due to the general uptick from the Slim release + new Halo game?
Click to expand...
I don't think anyone is attributing current sales to Kinect.

It probably won't be more than a marginal factor in system sales for the rest of the year, either. The initial wave of sales is going to be to existing system owners. It might add another 10-20% to holiday sales, tops.

It could add a significant amount of software sales though, if people view it as a "system launch" and pick up 3-4 titles.
 
legend166 said:
I can't possibly understand why people are attributing the great 360 sales to Kinect. You really don't think it's due to the general uptick from the Slim release + new Halo game?
Click to expand...
I agree. I just don't see people walking into a store and going 'We should by the 360 now because it's going to have that arm wave thingy come out sometime later'.
 
chubigans said:
Not even close. Move will get a nice jostle of support with Killzone and SOCOM next year while Kinect will fade off with hardly any exclusive Kinect supported games in the pipeline around the same time. It'll be a smash holiday hit for sure, but it won't last though next year.
Click to expand...

Where have we seen this said before?
 
legend166 said:
I can't possibly understand why people are attributing the great 360 sales to Kinect. You really don't think it's due to the general uptick from the Slim release + new Halo game?
Click to expand...

agreed.
 
chubigans said:
Not even close. Move will get a nice jostle of support with Killzone and SOCOM next year while Kinect will fade off with hardly any exclusive Kinect supported games in the pipeline around the same time. It'll be a smash holiday hit for sure, but it won't last though next year.
Click to expand...
Kinect's 2011 line-up is far more interesting than it's 2010 line-up. Thus far it has Child of Eden, Codename D, Haunt, Project Draco, Rise Of Nightmares, Star Wars Kinect, Steel Battalion 2, Unannounced THQ title, likely a new Forza and probably a few unannounced first party titles (Lionhead and Rare?). And then of course dozens of Sports/Fitness/Dance sequels to keep the casuals busy.
 
InaudibleWhispa said:
Kinect's 2011 line-up is far more interesting than it's 2010 line-up. Thus far it has Child of Eden, Codename D, Haunt, Project Draco, Rise Of Nightmares, Star Wars Kinect, Steel Battalion 2, Unannounced THQ title, likely a new Forza and probably a few unannounced first party titles (Lionhead and Rare?). And then of course dozens of Sports/Fitness/Dance sequels to keep the casuals busy.
Click to expand...

unannounced titles are not interesting
 
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