Do the Republicans have anything except hurr durr Han Solo? Because if not, yeesh.
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Kansas 04 special election results thread
- Thread starter mcfrank
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Do the Republicans have anything except hurr durr Han Solo? Because if not, yeesh.
You'd love that, wouldn't you?
"Remarkable" just feels like a bit of a stretch, doesn't it? Once the GOP is rid of the massive tumor dangling from their necks, this is all going to regress back to the norm. Maybe I'm just too cynical about this result, being a liberal about two hours south of this district, but I don't see anyone who isn't way inside the baseball looking at this as anything other than an (R) win. Those people don't write the narrative.
EDIT: DrForester beat me to my point.
Anyone looking at this as just another R win doesn't know what they're looking at. Republicans up for election any time soon are sweating after this. Even before this we've heard reports they're worried.
We went from R+15 to R+4. This is a crazy result in Kansas 4th. This puts approx 95-100 seats that are R+11 or less at play if all the elections were re-held tomorrow.
There is no exaggerating what this results mean. IF George follows suit and we pull off something special there and we see similar overperformance, along with the state and local special elections that have been occurring where we've seen crazy Dem overperformance, this becomes a trend line.
And these trends tend to get worse for the party they are against, not better. Look at the elections leading up to the 2010 mid-terms, where Democrats were washed out in a disastrous result. There were bellweathers for that, and they were grim. And it was actually even worse on election day.
And trust me, you're going to see plenty of headlines making waves about how close this was when it shouldn't have been. One hot take from MSNBC doesn't prove otherwise. Wait til the morning.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
That's an impressive showing for an "impossible" seat. I wonder how much of that is due to anti-Trump sentiment.
You mean how he went from "Hitler" to "very very unpleasant"? The polls may not reflect it, but attitudes toward him are changing (in the positive direction). There's still a lot of time for Trump to warm up to the electorate more. He could fuck it up, of course, but don't take it as a forgone conclusion. Stay vigilant or risk getting caught with your pants down again.
Lord of Ostia
Member
Sure are a lot of people in this thread who have no idea about Kansas politics.
Where are you getting this conclusion from if not the polls?
toddhunter
Member
I'm having flashbacks to all the "this county hasn't reported yet, Hillary is fine" posts.
Fuck that day.
I mean it's not Trump at all but Spicer's Hitler moment today just looks shitty for his admin too. People are not necessarily afraid of him anymore, but they are tiring of his antics. Let's just hope they stay that way.
Well Trump is trying Healthcare again. God knows why. I'd love to see the GOP take up that mantle again after this election!
Where is your evidence that attitudes are changing toward him in a positive direction? Because all we have are polls, and they do not show this.
The fact that a few people were positive about him for 24 total hours when he made one speech where he didn't vomit on himself or the fact that for 24 consecutive hours people stopped talking about Russia because he launched a pathetically ineffectual missile attack on Syria?
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
I don't see many protests anymore. You'd think that Hitler reincarnate would be deserving of more sustained protests. It also seems to be losing steam in social media. Most people are going with the "He's an idiot" story rather than the "he's Hitler" story. Relative to January, anyway. It's just a trend. It could reverse or change.
Full disclosure: I'm not a paid pollster and I'm also high.
Honestly, "he's an idiot" rather than "he's Hitler" is more damaging electorally.
There is like ten negative trending Twitter topics on Trump per day. Check the top 30 trending topics on any given day.
On top of that, people were turning out to the public forums for their representatives and shouting them down there only like two weeks ago. Since then there haven't been protests of the level you saw early on because we're winning the big legislative fights. We won on health care so far, and his immigration EO keeps getting defeated in court.
And these crazy swings in Republican districts are the loudest form of protest >
Remember dude it's only been 80 days and THIS much has happened. Massive protests, insane turnouts for representative forums, huge Dem over-performance in virtually all special elections held to date. What left do you want to happen, someone to toss a shoe at Trump? We still need a few more months for that
Well let me just roll up my sleeves and type out a 10k word dissertation on why you're wrong. First of all-
Oh. Well. I see what you're saying but I think you're jumping to a conclusion. So far, he hasn't done anything else to merit mass protests like the travel ban. Protests are still planned though. You can't expect to maintain opposition enthusiasm 365 days of the year.
His approval ratings are down from January and were at all-time lows before the Syria strikes.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
The fact that there are so many who changed their status from "afraid" to "annoyed" is a positive trend.
There aren't as many protests anymore, and news stories don't seem to mention Nazi Germany that much anymore. I still feel like the polls have the same flaw that they had during the election, but I could be misguided on that.
I just don't want y'all to get complacent again. It didn't work out too well last time.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
And these crazy swings in Republican districts are the loudest form of protest >
no, clearly this election just shows the latte-sipping liberals in coastal Wichita aren't enough and were shown up by Real America
Okay. I was gonna say...
Here are KS districts in 2016. With results like tonight, that's 2 out of 4 that could be Ds in 2018:
This would be assuming that Dems are willing to fund Berniecrats which is still doubtful.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
when was the news ever comparing Trump to Hitler? that's never happened because as bad as Trump is, he sure as shit isn't Hitler.
(also there was sort of a news story today about Hitler I guess)
oh dear god
*slams my head repeatedly into wall*
I'm more energized than I ever have been in my life. This election has radicalized me basically though so everyone's mileage may vary.
I want Republicans destroyed, in a darkest path of revenge sort of way. I want to see their very party disintegrated before my eyes. So I can't get complacent!
But yeah it's just... all the special elections so far this year have been very promising. I don't think there has been one result where Dems didn't overperform in a big way.
The DNC doesn't do congressional campaigns. That's the DCCC's job.
You think the Democrats care if they are? Come on.
I suppose, but I'm not just talking about Democrats - Republicans appear to also have lost their fervor, and they need to turn out for Trump in 2018 if he wants to win.
neurosisxeno
Member
That's just outright wrong.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
gdi it's hard to argue the other side when you give me hilarious mental images
those goddamn Wichitan elites won't be bossing real Kansans around anymore
I mean it is a serious concern if you want Berniecrats and the DCCC is seemingly uninterested in funding them while giving all its attention to Ossoff
maybe after Thompson's success they'll course correct and try to help Quist
but I understand the concern
Democrats would take "Berniecrats" every day of the week over even moderate Republicans. Not that i think a Berniecrat should run an election in Kansas, but if they make it to the general, I have no doubt the DCCC will support them.
I'm not concerned. I know exactly why the DCCC didn't spend much money here, and they were smart not to. It has nothing to do with us needing more Berniecrats or not: Every special election to date has showed massive overperformance for Dems (at the local/state level too), whether they were Berniecrats or not. What is important is understanding the essentials of every race and spending where it matters, because there are a zillion races and you cannot spend for them all. It would have been absurd to spend money in Kansas 4th. A total waste.
Xe4 said:
Thompson was a "Berniecrat", by loose definition. He was apparently inspired to run because of Bernie Sanders.
I commend your enthusiasm and fervor but I sometimes worry you're too passionate for your own good.
That's all based on message board posts though so I have no real idea. I'm sure you know yourself best...
JesseEwiak
Member
Or ya' know, Thompson hit the Democratic ceiling in KS-4 and Quist is not a good candidate by any measure once you actually look into his history. Look, limited resources - I'd put my money in the guy running in a swing district who's personable, young, and has resources.
But I look forward to the next couple weeks of Left Twitter inventing a fantasy land in their heads of what they'd do as heads of the DCCC.
neurosisxeno
Member
Not funding Quist is a calculated move. The one thing Montana hates more than Democrats is outsiders, and a Democrat funded by outsiders has no chance of winning. The DCCC is doing the right thing--especially since polling puts Quist up in an unfavorable district. You don't dump a ton of money into someone who is winning an unfavorable matchup, you let them do their own thing, and regional politics are a lot more complicated than national politics.
Escape Goat
Member
Voter fraud bro
Carpe Libertatem
Member
Maybe it was for the best not to nationalize a race in a district where the Democratic Party label is toxic?
I know, no two ways about it. I'm genuinely radicalized... I am furious at America and Republicans. One of my life's goals now is to live long enough to see them destroyed, and diminished as a relevant factor in American politics. Before I thought Republicans were a necessary component of this country, still worth saving. After seeing how they treated Obama, how they stole Garland's seat, how they supported this monster Trump... I want nothing but to see them eviscerated. Republicans are more dangerous to Americans than ISIS.
If you think my posts here are passionate though, hoooo boy. Don't read my twitter timeline lol
Ignoring the persecution complex, why would it assume that? This guy did it without any help.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
I don't think it's a binary proposition between "give absolutely zero help" and "fly Pelosi in to do rallies." The campaign asked for money a couple weeks ago and were turned down (by the state party but still). I recognize the importance of the victory tonight while also understanding the importance of looking at it and seeing what could've been done better.
I think Trump getting elected was a wake-up call for a few of us. I'm not American but follow each and every vote there, and am basically checking the French election polls and current Canadian conservative party vote daily - I'm not even eligible to vote in any one of the three.
I probably have an unhealthy obsession
Carpe Libertatem
Member
Probably the best thing to do would have been to funnel money to the state party and let them do the work, but even that runs the risk of nationalizing the race. But the Kansas Democratic Party doesn't seem too great, so meh. Don't think anyone expected this race to be as close as it was. If it was R+7 or something it might have been different.
I think Trump getting elected was a wake-up call for a few of us. I'm not American but follow each and every vote there, and am basically checking the French election polls and current Canadian conservative party vote daily - I'm not even eligible to vote in any one of the three.
I probably have an unhealthy obsession
I mean I've always followed politics obsessively, (here is a thread about the 2006 mid-terms I made on neoGAF. Memories! Simpler times...) but with Trump the rules have changed. To me this is a struggle for the soul of this country now, and I'm willing to accept any level of dirty politics to wrestle power away from Republicans. I am done trying to play by the rules and just accept them winning after shitting on every traditional political convention.
Escape Goat
Member
Maybe they used this as a baseline so they can more accurately target funds next year.
Just make sure we never hear about you bombing an RNC fundraiser or somethin
Frozenprince
Banned
You folks will be arguing this stupid ass primary anger till we're all dead.
The DCCC's money isn't an unlimited resource, especially this close to the last election. They have to prioritize their funds, and there are more likely pickups coming up.
I feel the same way (and boy is it weird seeing some gaffer names I recognize posting all the way back in 2006 - makes me feel young)
YEAR 216X
Before you lies a ruined landscape, rubble scattered across the skeleton of a once proud nation. Thousands of Corinthian Greco-Roman columns jut from the debris here and there, white beams breaking through the blight. A light rain patters over the environment, washing away the blood and grime from a decade of war.
In the distance, sunrays break through highlighting a tattered flag with the American stars and stripes. Two men lie back to back in front of it, their ragged breathing all that remains to show life.
The man looks up desperately and pushes the other man over onto the floor. The body slumps and rolls down the hill a few inches.
In the silence that remained, one final gasp could be heard: "If only we had nominated Bernie instead of Hillary..."
Just make sure we never hear about you bombing an RNC fundraiser or somethin
Man. No. Punching literal Nazi's is as far as I'd go. We're not at the bloody violence level yet
Totally. "Hitler" makes you sound hysterical to the average American voter despite it's alarming accuracy.
Tranqueris
Banned
Because he ran in a deep red district which he lost by 7 points. No ammount of money is going to win you 7 points. And that was *beating* people's projections of the race. It wasn't cause he was a "Berniecrat".
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