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[jvm]

Gamasutra posted my comments on the June 2010 data released by the NPD Group last week. The article is here:
Direct link to Gamasutra story about June 2010 NPD data.
Things of interest:

• Stuff about the Xbox 360, especially the Slim, probably no surprises there. Software revenue down in June, a far bigger drop than the industry overall.
• Wii software 1st party/3rd party comments for 1H 2010. Also, Wii hardware not so bad if you look at the last four months ... flat.
• NPD Group suggests they'll report non-retail revenue sources, which is increasingly something the industry needs. Not clear how much they'll report, on what, or how often.
• More to come later this week, hopefully. So it's not over.

An image from the article:

As always, I'm up for corrections, comments, etc. Please don't take a lack of immediate response personally -- I may simply not be here. My overlordseditors will probably be watching the thread, so changes may happen without a direct response from me.

So much did not get discussed: PS3 sales, specific details about software titles, and more. I'll get to some of this later, but I ran out of time. I'm very, very tired right now. :|

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
2007: Oct Nov Dec
2008: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010: Jan Feb Mar Apr May

 

[Skiptastic]

Finally! You talk about the 360!

 

[FrankT]

At this point we'd conservatively expect the Xbox 360 to hit sales of over 250,000 systems when the July estimates from the NPD Group are released next month.

Bare minimum I'd say. Well depending on Slim supply for the month. Gamestops are on at least 3rd shipment now(second for the month). Still plenty of stock for the older discounted models to continue to sale for the month (and likely until the new Arcade ships).

 

[Cornbread78]

Damn, that's a lot of information. Good stuff.

- Would be good to see non-retail sales info. (Live, PSN, Nintendo Store)

- Would love to beg NPD for top 20 software sales for each system/console (Wii, 360, PS3, Ds, PSP)

 

[jvm]

Finally! You talk about the 360!

I've been meaning to do this for a while. I'm not blind to the fact that the Xbox 360 has gotten passed over while the PS3 and Wii (both SW and HW) have drawn my attention. Microsoft has done a great job maintaining their platform's strength, the Slim and strong software will get them at least another year. Hats off to them, truly.

Indeed, reading your articles, sometimes it feels as if you don't like the 360.

Not at all. From my perspective, "Microsoft doing their job very competently month after month" simply doesn't have enough for me to dig into.

I don't recall putting this into the article, but it is perhaps of interest here. It would appear that the Xbox 360 slipped a bit ahead of the Wii in terms of software revenue for 1H 2010, a reversal from 1H 2009. There is probably a small margin of error in my figures, so it's possible they're essentially tied.

 

[scently]

Finally! You talk about the 360!

Indeed, reading your articles, sometimes it feels as if you don't like the 360.

 

[gerg]

Bare minimum I'd say. Well depending on Slim supply for the month. Gamestops are on at least 3rd shipment now(second for the month). Still plenty of stock for the older discounted models to continue to sale for the month (and likely until the new Arcade ships).

I found this very interesting:

Discounted Xbox 360s outsell new model

 

[FrankT]

I found this very interesting:

Discounted Xbox 360s outsell new model

I would hope so since you are talking about 15 days versus 35 at retail. A very supply constrained 15 day at that. They sold what they shipped. Given that a 40, 35, 25 mix is a about what I expected. I said a decent combination before the numbers hit.

I don't recall putting this into the article, but it is perhaps of interest here. It would appear that the Xbox 360 slipped a bit ahead of the Wii in terms of software revenue for 1H 2010, a reversal from 1H 2009. There is probably a small margin of error in my figures, so it's possible they're essentially tied.

That was the indication given by NPD up through May I thought at least. Not sure how or if June changed it overall.

 

[Skiptastic]

I've been meaning to do this for a while. I'm not blind to the fact that the Xbox 360 has gotten passed over while the PS3 and Wii (both SW and HW) have drawn my attention. Microsoft has done a great job maintaining their platform's strength, the Slim and strong software will get them at least another year. Hats off to them, truly.

I was just giving you some shit. I think I've talked about it in your threads in the past, the 360 is just really boring in comparison. Which is exactly what a smart investor would want! :lol

I know it's not personal bias, the 360 just doesn't really trend wildly most of the time. This was a big move so it's getting some coverage from you. Totally understandable.

 

[JJConrad]

Last year's article had far better 1-half comparisons in it. I hope that upcoming stuff is more like that stuff. And can you label the amounts on the Wii software chart; do you expect us to pixel count?

Wasn't Microsoft claiming to have the most revenue for the first half of 2009 too? Or was that just 3rd party revenue?

 

[jvm]

Last year's article had far better 1-half comparisons in it. I hope that upcoming stuff is more like that stuff. And can you label the amounts on the Wii software chart; do you expect us to pixel count?

You'll have to do what you can do. :|

Wasn't Microsoft claiming to have the most revenue for the first half of 2009 too? Or was that just 3rd party revenue?

Third-party, I believe. In terms of revenue, they were a clear second, behind Nintendo.

Sales of third-party games, a key measure of platform health, totaled $168 million for Xbox 360 in June. In fact, Xbox 360 has led third-party games sales every month in 2009.

 

[SlipperySlope]

Good article. Looks like we're ready for the next generation.

 

[timetokill]

Good article. Looks like we're ready for the next generation.

No :lol

Edit: I mean about the next generation. the article is fine as usual jvm

 

[SlipperySlope]

No :lol

Edit: I mean about the next generation. the article is fine as usual jvm

I was looking at this graph when i made the statement.

It's the 2nd year in a row of declining revenues. Only price cuts/slims/bundles are keeping things as high as they are.

Usually signals the end of a generation. Things need the boost of a new generation.

Most of the year-over-year decline came from diminished software sales, which came in at $531 million including both console and handheld software, over $95 million below last June's figure. This was driven by a 14.7% decline in software unit sales and a 0.5% decline in the average price of software sold in June.

Software is particularly frightening.

 

[timetokill]

I was looking at this graph when i made the statement.

It's the 2nd year in a row of declining revenues. Only price cuts/slims/bundles are keeping things as high as they are.

Usually signals the end of a generation. Things need the boost of a new generation.

Software is particularly frightening.

That's true, but I meant that the industry itself is not ready. Looking at only the market... well, no. I don't think it's healthy for the industry to rely entirely on the hardcore "will buy any new tech at launch" market to keep itself afloat. That said the 3DS will spike the chart when it comes out.

I think the economy is starting to have its lasting effects, and games are not priced well. iirc used sales are still holding up. I think the main differences we're seeing is the Wii cooling off -- which is to say, it's selling "good" numbers now instead of mind-blowing ones.

It will be fine to coast this out and not see new console hardware until Winter 2011 if somebody really wants to get a head start. Even then, at its current rate I think 2012 is the safer bet.

 

[Rhindle]

I was looking at this graph when i made the statement.

It's the 2nd year in a row of declining revenues. Only price cuts/slims/bundles are keeping things as high as they are.

Usually signals the end of a generation. Things need the boost of a new generation.

Software is particularly frightening.

That trend is following a typical console cycle pattern. Revenues peak around Year 3, then start drifting downwards.

The drop-off this time has been more pronounced than previous cycles though. Most of that is probably due to the fall-off in Wii software sales - I think focusing on unit sales doesn't make sense by the way, jvm. Part of the reason for the sorry state of affairs with Wii 3rd party sales is the glut of $20 shovelware that adds little to industry revenues.

The recession might also have been a bit of a contributing factor, but I doubt it. I just don't see gaming as being particularly sensitive to economic conditions - other forms of entertainment spending certainly aren't.

 

[donny2112]

that adds little to industry revenues.

Wii needs a Player's Choice line. If Wii had a Player's Choice line, there'd be even more $20 games "adding little to industry revenue" but boy would software sales be a lot higher with consistently good games at that price level. Each way of looking at sales (revenue and units) has its worth.

 

[Dalthien]

I think focusing on unit sales doesn't make sense by the way, jvm.

It makes every bit as much sense as focusing on revenues. People all too often forget that the revenue statistic really only has meaning when taken in context with the costs required to generate that revenue.

If revenue rises 5%, but the costs associated with that revenue rise 20%, then championing the revenue increase as some kind of victory is kind of silly.

If one company sells a million copies of a game at $20 ($20M industry revenue) and turns a profit, while another company sells a million copies of a game at $60 ($60M industry revenue) but loses money on the game - which company is the one helping to foster a healthy industry? It makes for a much more interesting discussion than just trying to casually dismiss unit sales.

 

[Nirolak]

Out of curiosity, will the retail sales of StarCraft II be counted as part of the overall industry revenue next month?

 

[donny2112]

Out of curiosity, will the retail sales of StarCraft II be counted as part of the overall industry revenue next month?

Not in the numbers we usually see (i.e. hardware $, software $, accessories $) so not in the numbers in jvm's graph. That's typically console-focused. I'm sure StarCraft II's performance will be mentioned in analyst reports, though.

 

[FrankT]

Not in the numbers we usually see (i.e. hardware $, software $, accessories $) so not in the numbers in jvm's graph. That's typically console-focused. I'm sure StarCraft II's performance will be mentioned in analyst reports, though.

So when Anita talks about a $20 billion year end type figure that doesn't include any PC sales eh? Or say the $1+billion figure from last month.

 

[donny2112]

So when Anita talks about a $20 billion year end type figure that doesn't include any PC sales eh? Or say the $1+billion figure from last month.

If it relates to the graph jvm posts or the software revenue figures discussed each month, no, it does not include PC sales. The $20b is probably console-related (seems about right). I'm not sure what the $1+b refers to, though.

Edit:
Oh, you're talking about the total industry figure for May! Correct. That does not include PC sales.

 

[jvm]

So when Anita talks about a $20 billion year end type figure that doesn't include any PC sales eh? Or say the $1+billion figure from last month.

I do not believe she's speaking of combined console+handheld+PC sales, no. These releases are sent out with comments in the body of the email and a spreadsheet as an attachment. These spreadsheet pretty clearly deals only with console and handheld sales. It would be unusual for the attached analyst commentary to refer to PC sales revenue without making it clear that it was considering revenue not reflected in the attached data.

 

[FrankT]

Understood, thanks. Would be nice to have a combined figure of both year end. Of if I maybe so bold an individual figure of both each month. Not happening I know.

 

[donny2112]

Understood, thanks. Would be nice to have a combined figure of both year end. Of if I maybe so bold an individual figure of both each month. Not happening I know.

To be fair, NPD would only be tracking the retail figure each month, anyways. If it was posted, we'd just get a repeating cycle of "Those are bad!" "They don't include Steam, etc." "Oh, what are Steam's numbers?" "No one one knows but Valve." "Oh." each month. :lol

 

[FrankT]

To be fair, NPD would only be tracking the retail figure each month, anyways. If it was posted, we'd just get a repeating cycle of "Those are bad!" "They don't include Steam, etc." "Oh, what are Steam's numbers?" "No one one knows but Valve." "Oh." each month. :lol

I see. The more the better imo, but I can't blame NPD for less in the last few months either(console side). An overall picture of the entire industry save DD would be nice.

Which would lead me to this;

•NPD Group suggests they'll report non-retail revenue sources, which is increasingly something the industry needs. Not clear how much they'll report, on what, or how often.

Very interested to see how that come up with this and the sources/data points they will use to compile this figure.

 

[Dead Man]

I would laugh long and hard if once NPD starts covering non retail revenue they find that most of the decline is accounted for by increased DLC sales. I have no idea if they are related at all, I would just find great humour if they were. It seems people claim to have a fixed entertainment budget, maybe that's true.

Edit: Unless that data is already covered and I have misunderstood. Also no insult to you or Gamasutra, who do a great job each month,

 

[Onion_Relish]

Yeah, looking at the sales without non-retail figures seems more and more asinine as the months tick by. Not your fault by any means, but thousands and thousands of people buying a 40 dollar peace walker game cant be ignored forever.

Gamasutra is a good site and I endore this post.

 

[FrankT]

I would laugh long and hard if once NPD starts covering non retail revenue they find that most of the decline is accounted for by increased DLC sales. I have no idea if they are related at all, I would just find great humour if they were. It seems people claim to have a fixed entertainment budget, maybe that's true.

Edit: Unless that data is already covered and I have misunderstood. Also no insult to you or Gamasutra, who do a great job each month,

That's the kicker how do they even remotely come close to tracking those sales. We rarely get clear cut data on DLC sales. Tracking XBLA games month over month with leaderboards is a bit a different story however.

 

[squicken]

A few years ago NPD sent me a kit in the mail wanting me to keep a consumer diary for everything I purchased at the grocery store. That seemed like work so I threw it out.

I guess that's how they plan on tracking digital purchases. Now that I'd keep track of.

 

[jvm]

One followup:

And:

 

[Kenka]

Thank you very much jvm, very nice follow-up

Just Dance LTD is around 2.5 M between UK and US then.

 

[cooljeanius]

Was about to post the followup myself, good to see it's already been posted. Wow @ Just Dance... look at all that stuff it outsold. Red Dead Redemption surprised me considering it didn't have as much of the first half of the year to sell as most of the other games did. New Super Mario Bros. Wii continues to beat both MW2s combined. And NSMB DS and MKS, despite being years old, continue to beat out many newer games...

 

[Pooya]

Mass Effect 2 has sold more than 1 million?

 

[EagleEyes]

Mass Effect 2 has sold more than 1 million?

I'm sure it did because after its first 2 months it was around 850k.

 

[Tylahedras]

MW2 just won't stop.

 

[DMeisterJ]

Heavy Rain hasn't crossed 500k? Didn't it do 400K+ in the first two NPDs?

 

[jvm]

Heavy Rain hasn't crossed 500k? Didn't it do 400K+ in the first two NPDs?

Sorry, I meant to mention there could be others, but these were the ones I could confirm. I will double check Mass Effect 2...

Edit: Ok, so Heavy Rain was 219K + 100K (min) + April + May + June. It is possible that it's past 500K, but I don't know that it's provably beyond that. I'd love to know if someone has info that could help.