Gonzo The Great
Banned
Where's my Trump/Omarosa ticket
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Post-CNN GOP debate poll: Fiorina surges to 2nd place, Furby falls 8% points
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BoboBrazil
Member
She's a woman and they probably think it will be more interesting to have 2 women go against each other in the election.
Maninthemirror
Banned
Guaranteed Fiorina on top will be short lived. Her audience is not as crazy as trump and there is some semblance of right wing moderation in her camp but when her past comes out of how she dealt with people and her CEO history, that will remove her from the top quicker than trump. The trump supporters play into his craziness , this won't be the case for Carly
The real nominee will be between Rubio and Bush , yes Bush still has a chance
The real nominee will be between Rubio and Bush , yes Bush still has a chance
BoboBrazil
Member
I think Rubio has a chance to beat Hilary. He's a good looking younger guy. He probably has the best shot against Hilary actually.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
There is no electorate map that has a GOP contender winning the title this election.
The Washington Post had a great article in January that described the GOP's electoral math problem pretty well. Their most generous simulation had the Democrat winning 291 electoral votes.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/01/06/the-gops-2016-problem-in-3-maps/
Since 1992, the most electors a GOP candidate has won was 284.. and that was with George W tap-dancing on the graves of 9/11 victims while singing scary songs about "terrah!" (against boring-ass John Kerry, no less)
If gas stays cheap and the economy stays vaguely improving, it's going to be very difficult to see how their math works out.
equippedwithtowel
Member
http://www.270towin.com/maps/azm2L
Which is why in a perfect world Kasich/Rubio is their most dangerous ticket. Combo of experience and youth with both nominees being more broadly likable then in 2012.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
It is what I have said all along. Kasich is their strongest Nominee, with Rubio bringing the potential Florida vote/slight latino bump. Kasich is more human than all other candidates outside of the Planned Parenthood thing, which he would be wise to soften on. Americans don't want to see baby body parts farmed out to the highest bidder, but they don't want abortion rights curbed, either. That is a losing fight.
Other than that, he seems like an alright candidate who keeps saying things like "reach across the aisles," "don't agree with gay marriage, but it is law and it is time to accept that," etc. Not that I would ever vote for him, but I wouldn't feel horrible if he were president like I would with nearly all other GOP candidates.
BoboBrazil
Member
I would hope so, but you never know. Lies and smear campaign will be out in full force. Let's see if the democrats actually have the balls to call them out on it this election.
Schattenjäger
Gabriel Knight
Kasich/Rubio ticket is the only way!
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Democrats have the balls to do so every presidential election. It is the midterms when they lose their balls to do so.
As long as their is no legitimate "oh shit, we already nominated this person that murdered a kid in Reno back in the 60s," then Democrats win this one going away.
I've had a gut feeling Rubio would be the eventual nominee from basically the jump. Which scares me, because I think he has a real chance in a general unlike pretty much everyone else they have. It seems they may be realizing that as well.
Right now though I'm just giddy over Walker's collapse. I love Wisconsin and he's utterly wrecked it just to get "credentials" for this 2016 run. I was legitimately terrified when he was seen as a frontrunner. He's the worst.
Right now though I'm just giddy over Walker's collapse. I love Wisconsin and he's utterly wrecked it just to get "credentials" for this 2016 run. I was legitimately terrified when he was seen as a frontrunner. He's the worst.
QuiteWhittle
Member
Democrats need to lock Virginia down.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
He is definitely a cancer, but I cannot see a time when he would have been considered a front-runner. It was always Bush, with a little Rubio mixed in. Trump was obviously a shocker, as will be Kasich when Reince finally wakes up and realizes that he and Rubio are the only ones with a snowball's chance in hell to get sniff enough EC votes and there ends up being a groundswell of support for him.
Yeah, Kasich could take off too but I'm not sure.
Rubio is just such a good candidate for them. I don't like him, obviously, because I'm a liberal, but it's all there if you're looking for a GOP candidate who could upset in the general. He's young, he's Latino, he's a fresh Senator......basically a GOP Obama (on paper). He's really conservative, but he doesn't *seem* cruel or crazy like most of the current GOP.
He's also from Florida like Jeb and maybe I'm wrong, but it seems to me like he will have a lot more pull there. The Bush name is still toxic. A Florida win is absolutely essenstial to them.
My only real doubt with him is whether there's enough racists who absolutely will draw the line on supporting a not-white dude.
Purely as a strategic move, I think they'd be really dumb to pick Jeb over Rubio. Which......we'll see?
Rubio is just such a good candidate for them. I don't like him, obviously, because I'm a liberal, but it's all there if you're looking for a GOP candidate who could upset in the general. He's young, he's Latino, he's a fresh Senator......basically a GOP Obama (on paper). He's really conservative, but he doesn't *seem* cruel or crazy like most of the current GOP.
He's also from Florida like Jeb and maybe I'm wrong, but it seems to me like he will have a lot more pull there. The Bush name is still toxic. A Florida win is absolutely essenstial to them.
My only real doubt with him is whether there's enough racists who absolutely will draw the line on supporting a not-white dude.
Purely as a strategic move, I think they'd be really dumb to pick Jeb over Rubio. Which......we'll see?
Bluekaveli
Member
Trump or Carson
EatinOlives
Member
Well here's the thing with racists. If they have a brown guy who looks ethnic but not too ethnic, speaks perfect English, has a foreign-sounding name but isn't so foreign that it's hard to pronounce, and is someone who agrees with them on everything, they'll welcome them into their political world gladly as their "token ethnic politician".
Most racists don't mind people of other races if they think, act, and speak in the same way they do. In fact, they welcome it. They like the idea of "knowing" someone from a different ethnicity because it also makes them feel not-racist, even if said person is basically a white guy wrapped in ethnic packaging.
OuterLimits
Member
Hmm, this poll seems to be getting the most attention, but don't some other polls still show Trump above 30%?
Btw, I think that NH Trump town hall media news stuff may actually help Trump. The more the media and Republican establishment attack Trump, the better he seems to do.
Fiorina is probably pissed. She was enjoying the narrative of doing well in the debate. Within 24 hours, Trump was once again dominating the news and no longer was the debate being talked about as much.
I think Rubio may have a better chance than Bush now. Bush needs to start at least slowly rising in polls soon. Been stuck at 5 to 10% in most polls for weeks with very little movement. I think Rubio may be more tolerable to the anti establishment voters. They don't trust him much, but probably more than Jeb Bush.
Btw, I think that NH Trump town hall media news stuff may actually help Trump. The more the media and Republican establishment attack Trump, the better he seems to do.
Fiorina is probably pissed. She was enjoying the narrative of doing well in the debate. Within 24 hours, Trump was once again dominating the news and no longer was the debate being talked about as much.
I think Rubio may have a better chance than Bush now. Bush needs to start at least slowly rising in polls soon. Been stuck at 5 to 10% in most polls for weeks with very little movement. I think Rubio may be more tolerable to the anti establishment voters. They don't trust him much, but probably more than Jeb Bush.
Warner/Kaine are easy VP nods.
OuterLimits
Member
Speaking of Warner, I was surprised he barely won his last Senate race. Ed Gillespie ran a terrible campaign yet almost pulled off the upset.
Off-year elections are rough for dems, but yeah, that was way too close.
This is the year where pollsters have been really wrong. Just look at the UK election. Thinking the GOP has no shot, I don't know. It's tough I still think the eventual nominees will be between Rubio, Bush and Trump. Bernie Sanders may be seizing the momentum, but he's almost entirely dead in the water with the right whereas Hillary and Biden can appeal to conservatives. Remember Obama really turned a lot of Republicans towards him, both elections. I don't see Sanders doing the same.
OuterLimits
Member
You make some good points. I think people perhaps incorrectly assume the states that swung blue for Obama will easily do so in the next election. Obama was fantastic at campaigns and got people who may rarely vote to show up on election day. It remains to be seen if the nominee this time can do the same.
not psycho
Member
I considered it to be between Bush and Rubio, with Bush significantly ahead, from the beginning. Trump's poll numbers have been a little surprising, but not that much when you consider he's an entertainer. It's still Bush and Rubio, but Bush has underperformed and they're very close now.
Rubio scares me. He could take advantage of Hillary being another Clinton as well as her age. Bush scares me too, I won't ever underestimate the ability of the American people to elect a Bush.
Rubio scares me. He could take advantage of Hillary being another Clinton as well as her age. Bush scares me too, I won't ever underestimate the ability of the American people to elect a Bush.
Black Republican
Member
wonder when more post debate polls are coming, maybe monday\?
teruterubozu
Member
I think it's pretty clear that conservatives are antiestablishment this time around with Trump, Fiorina and Carson in the lead. Bush and Rubio looked outdated up there like relics from a GOP past. The "practiced politician" seems to be unfavorable these days.
Vanillalite
Ask me about the GAF Notebook
When 25% of the people vote for Trump in the primary it's gonna be an epic GAF meltdown. LoL
Trump probably needs to start rehearsing. I get it's not really his thing, but he's pretty inconsistent.
ultratruman
Banned
I liked Huntsman
The sucky thing for Rubio is that Jeb is going to stick around loooong into the process, dividing the nonTrump vote. He could probably give Trump a run for his money in a one-on-one contest, but not when the nonTrump vote is split.
I suspect that the big donors are going to realize that they're stuck with Jeb, and if he stays in the same tier as Rubio, they're not going to want to divide votes on the establishment's preferred pick.
I suspect that the big donors are going to realize that they're stuck with Jeb, and if he stays in the same tier as Rubio, they're not going to want to divide votes on the establishment's preferred pick.
Bel Marduk
Banned
Virginia has become a blue/purple state.
Dem gov and both senators.
Went for Obama twice.
Dems would still win.
boiled goose
good with gravy
It's not just that. People know the government is not working for them now. They are pissed.
teruterubozu
Member
But they don't want government working for anyone. Smaller the better.
OminoMichelin
Member
I think most gaffers have already come to terms with the fact that Trump will most likely win the primaries.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Not sure about that.
The ones on the let's deregulate everything camp are bush, Walker, cruz, and of course paul. Let's reduce taxes on the rich is not working too well anymore. Folks may not be the most educated but they know when they are getting screwed.
teruterubozu
Member
Not sure about that. People vote against their interests all the time. I could also see Trump deregulating lots of US business laws.
LegendofJoe
Member
North Carolina was starting to turn too until the 2010 disaster. It hit NC harder than any other state. It's going to take a long time to recover.
You can't rehearse something you don't know. It's baffling to me how he's pandering to the lowest common denominator and winning. I haven't heard a single thing he's said that has any substance or makes sense. 'I'm going to make the military so strong again, it'll be so big and so large no one will mess with us' *giant applause*. 'I'm going to get Mexico to finance the wall, how? Because I'm a business man and that's what I do' *giant applause*. 'I know how to work with the leaders of China and Russia, I built some of the most successful companies in the world, I know how to deal with tough leaders' *giant applause*.
You never want to give specifics to the media, but Trump has shown virtually nothing. What he's doing is the worst kind of campaigning. He's going to be ripped apart if these debates continue. Just look at those vaccine comments, the dumb comments he makes. He was so flabbergasted after the last debate, he kept telling Chris that it was a long debate, 3 hours, we all did good, that was a long debate blah blah.
Don't get me wrong. He's a smart guy, shrewd businessman and means what he says but he's the guy who's playing poker bluffing his way by pretending he has a royal flush when he's honestly got nothing.
boiled goose
good with gravy
I dont disagree. I think they know something's wrong but maybe can't accurately diagnose it haha
gamechanger87
Member
Ding ding ding, this is the ticket that I see lining up.
I actually see it flipped though Rubio/Kasich. Both are fairly moderate and Rubio has actually tried to push through a semblance of immigration reform.
Which disaster was that?
As a registered dem, I see this as their best shot. Rubio might be able to beat Bernie or Hilary.
hydrophilic attack
Member
Yes, I agree. He often comes off as if he hasn't even thought the questions through. His main point on foreign policy seemed to be to seek working relations with other countries and regimes rather than conflict. If you want war-hungry Republicans to accept such a message, you have to sell it lot better than he did.
gamechanger87
Member
He won't start rehearsing. He has no interest in foreign policy or any policy in particular. His entire campaign is centered around being an outsider and then to trust him. If he rehearses it would make him seem inauthentic.
Midterm elections that swept the Tea Party into power.
If the pro-choice people saying he's reasonable knew the shit he pulled in Ohio, they'd be gasping for air.
Probably will happen, even if Stephen makes him look foolish he will get more exposure and trend upwards again.
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