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[jvm]

Despite beautiful weather, I spent most of my weekend inside working on an article on the latest NPD Group figures regarding August 2010 retail sales. Gamasutra is graciously hosting the article:
Direct link to Gamasutra story about August 2010 NPD data.
Some stuff folks might be interested in:

• PS3 + PS2 + PSP Madden sales neared 1 million units, topping the Xbox 360. That wasn't the case last year.
• Wii software sales really down this month. Kind of scary low, really.
• The Xbox 360 S model is doing really well, I think. Should be another great month for Microsoft when the September figures come in.
• Not in the article, but of interest: PS2 hardware sales were within 5K of PSP hardware sales, from what I was able to estimate.

An image from the article:

As always, I'm up for corrections, comments, etc. Please don't take a lack of immediate response personally -- I may simply not be here. (Today will be exceptionally busy for me.) My overlordseditors will probably be watching the thread, so changes may happen without a direct response from me.

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
2007: Oct Nov Dec
2008: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

 

[donny2112]

we will note that software sales have declined by 19%, 30%, and 38% in June, July, and August, respectively, compared to those same months a year ago.

If you have visibility into unit sales, that's great, but based on your usual MO, this would actually be revenue drops in Wii software YOY. Drop in Wii Fit w/Balance Board sales and the removal of Wii Sports Resort from the software revenue (especially compared to last August) would soften the declines somewhat.

Nintendo's Mario titles along with trendy third-party titles like Just Dance and Wipeout: The Game

Wii Fit is a Mario title? Wipeout: The Game is a trendy third-party title on Wii? Be careful or you'll fall into the trap of saying that only Nintendo titles sell on Wii, and third-parties shouldn't even bother. Even Pachter has been saying that third-parties have been abandoning the Wii prematurely.

the Wii is notable for being both the best-selling current generation console of the last 12 months and the one with the greatest decline in software sales so far this year.

1) You're comparing last 12 months of hardware ranking to the last 8 months of software revenue.
2) Wii skews signficantly lower in ASP than PS360.
3) Your point of greatest decline YTD should still be true, but Wii should also still be in first place in units through July and probably YTD, too.

Edit:
Just to be clear, Wii is not, and has not been, in a good position since the industry decided to stick their respective heads in the sand and pretend like it didn't exist and Nintendo bombed in Fall 2008. Been saying it for years in the MC threads, but Nintendo needs a Wii successor ASAP in Japan, and probably by 2011/2012 elsewhere. That said, it's still #1 in hardware in the U.S. Should easily still be #1 in software units in the U.S. for the full year. However, the absolute levels aren't any where near what they should be. Being "just' better than PS3 or 360 in total numbers is a way lowered standard for Wii. :/

 

[jvm]

All good points, donny2112. To add to the data slightly, YTD software revenue is pretty close to even between PS3 and Wii, while the Xbox 360 is modestly ahead (like by $100 million or so).

If we use the general rule of thumb that Wii software ASP is $45 and PS3/Xbox 360 is $55, then you get a different picture in terms of units. This is an excellent point to raise.

However, I would add that there is at least one other wrinkle: third-party Wii software has a lower ASP than $45, and those are the sales that have been higher hit. We should look up Michael's old third-party software thread and get the first-party/third-party ASPs from there. (I think I have data for this year, but with me.)

So if the mix has moved more toward first-party Wii software, then that softens the $45-$55 differential somewhat, no?

 

[StealthGoblin]

Given the install base of the 360 and PS3, I was surprised to see the PS3 almost at the same level of Madden sales.

 

[Vinci]

There is an upcoming replacement for the Wii, donny. It's called the 3DS, oddly enough.

 

[burgerdog]

Safe to assume madden will sell more on ps3 next year?

 

[DMeisterJ]

Given the install base of the 360 and PS3, I was surprised to see the PS3 almost at the same level of Madden sales.

That was the most shocking thing to me too...

 

[dionysus]

Given the install base of the 360 and PS3, I was surprised to see the PS3 almost at the same level of Madden sales.

Only explanation I can fathom is Xbox Live Gold user base vs. PSN user base.

 

[donny2112]

So if the mix has moved more toward first-party Wii software, then that softens the $45-$55 differential somewhat, no?

We have a few of variables here.

1) First and third-party revenue.
2) First and third-party ASP.

We know that both in #1 and #2 dropped, but we dont' have a clear view of the ratio of the drops. Back of the envelope calculations using revenue and units from tie ratio differences between January and May 2009/2010 showed an overall drop in ASP for Wii games in that period. Again, we don't know how much of that is first vs. third-party, but that would at least show that first-party ASP wasn't propping up overall ASP in that period of the year. Haven't looked at it much in the last few months, though.

There is an upcoming replacement for the Wii, donny. It's called the 3DS, oddly enough.

Please tell me you're not jumping on-board that guy's bandwagon that Nintendo's next generation will be a combined handheld/console platform.

Spoiler

 

[LosDaddie]

Only explanation I can fathom is Xbox Live Gold user base vs. PSN user base.

Nah, I'd say it's more likely because of the Sony/PS3 advertising for Madden this year. Marketing does work.

 

[dionysus]

Nah, I'd say it's more likely because of the Sony/PS3 advertising for Madden this year. Marketing does work.

Saw a commercial during sunday football that had the xbox splash only. So PS3 has more madden adds than xbox?

The commercial was pretty terrible, the only thing they talked about was how you could finish a game in half the time while the baby slept.

 

[donny2112]

Nah, I'd say it's more likely because of the Sony/PS3 advertising for Madden this year. Marketing does work.

It could have to do with the article's point of saying that PS3 hardware install base has increased 60% since last year's version. Madden was already showing a higher representation compared to the install base last year (i.e. a relatively more Madden-loving audience), so the strong increase in total hardware base was likely to raise Madden's sales on the platform some.

 

[DangerousDave]

Given the install base of the 360 and PS3, I was surprised to see the PS3 almost at the same level of Madden sales.

The question is that nobody knows the real "active" 360 userbase.

There is the piracy, true, but there is also people that bought several 360 (not only replacement units, also people that bought a slim or even another console because the arcade price is quite low), and there is people that bought the 360 in the first years (when PS3 wasn't out yet, or it costed 600$) and now they jumped to PS3 (after the price down or after the slim), people with two consoles that are silver and buy online games in PS3, and even people that left gaming.

My impression is that the "active" PS3 ratio is higher, because is a newer console. PS3 big numbers in US are from the last 2 years, after the 400$ price down, and specially after the 300$ price down.

So, even if the difference in units sold is like 8 million, the "real" difference should be much lower.

Also, the match of PS2 down - PS3 up in Madden make us think that a lot of people stayed with PS2 until PS3 was cheap enough to jump to this gen.

 

[Vinci]

Please tell me you're not jumping on-board that guy's bandwagon that Nintendo's next generation will be a combined handheld/console platform.

Spoiler

No, of course not. I'm just saying, if Nintendo wants to give the market a kick in the pants, they've already got something lined up to do so. There's really not much left that they can do for the Wii beyond what they've announced for this year, IMO. Any sustaining maneuvers that might keep the Wii alive significantly longer have either been used up, or are likely going to be transitioned for their next console. The console will still sell well during holidays, it's not like it's dead altogether.

So yes, in a sense, the 3DS is the Wii's replacement. At least from a momentum standpoint for the company.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Safe to assume madden will sell more on ps3 next year?

The increase of PS3 users was almost identical to the decrease in PS2 users.

Now that the PS3 and 360 are both $299 (or less), just about everyone from last gen has upgraded to an HD console for their Madden fix. The 360 got its last-gen users faster due to having a lower price point for 3 years. The last of the Dual Shock/Sony diehards from the PS2 era jumped in after the PS3 Slim dropped. There isn't really a significant group of video football fans left, like the article suggests the Madden series has peaked at least for this generation. There will be minor fluctuations until the end of this gen, but they haven't added anything to the series in years that would warrant a rush of new users.

Edit: Dangerous Dave, despite how close the top 10 looks month after month, the 360 is still currently selling more software, month by month, than the PS3 in the US.

 

[joelseph]

The question is that nobody knows the real "active" 360 userbase.

But this is not a sub model, a unit sold is a unit sold.

 

[forgeforsaken]

Safe to assume madden will sell more on ps3 next year?

Not really, looking at the graph there seems to be a hard sales ceiling on the game. PS3 and 360 will probably equalize and then stay flat.

 

[donny2112]

So yes, in a sense, the 3DS is the Wii's replacement. At least from a momentum standpoint for the company.

Yeah, definitely. Wonder how much faster 3DS will hasten Wii's decline and eventual replacement, though ...

 

[Vinci]

Yeah, definitely. Wonder how much faster 3DS will hasten Wii's decline and eventual replacement, though ...

Probably by a significant margin.

 

[jkanownik]

The question is that nobody knows the real "active" 360 userbase.

...

My impression is that the "active" PS3 ratio is higher, because is a newer console. PS3 big numbers in US are from the last 2 years, after the 400$ price down, and specially after the 300$ price down.

So, even if the difference in units sold is like 8 million, the "real" difference should be much lower.

Also, the match of PS2 down - PS3 up in Madden make us think that a lot of people stayed with PS2 until PS3 was cheap enough to jump to this gen.

Or, maybe not.

Install Base (through June):
360 - 20.6MM (62%)
PS3 - 12.7MM (38%)

May & June Red Dead Redemption sales:
360 - 1,528.5K (62%)
PS3 - 947.4K (38%)

 

[DangerousDave]

Or, maybe not.

Install Base (through June):
360 - 20.6MM (62%)
PS3 - 12.7MM (38%)

May & June Red Dead Redemption sales:
360 - 1,528.5K (62%)
PS3 - 947.4K (38%)

Yeah, but RDR was a very bad port. In this kind of games, or games with differences between versions (Batman AA, FF XIII, MW2, etc) we can't get a real data.

Dangerous Dave, despite how close the top 10 looks month after month, the 360 is still currently selling more software, month by month, than the PS3 in the US.

I've never said that the "active" PS3 userbase is more, or even the same, than the 360 userbase. Only that maybe is closer than the total console units sold shows.

 

[jvm]

Yeah, but RDR was a very bad port. In this kind of games, or games with differences between versions (Batman AA, FF XIII, MW2, etc) we can't get a real data.

I have some data that I've never got around to publishing showing first-month and YTD ratios for game types. So, for example, fighting/sports games, action games, shooters. It made for some interesting graphs.

 

[FLEABttn]

Yeah, but RDR was a very bad port. In this kind of games, or games with differences between versions (Batman AA, FF XIII, MW2, etc) we can't get a real data.

No it wasn't. Not saying there aren't differences, but they are negligible. Random RDR buyer isn't probably going to be able to tell the difference unless literally side by side, but probably won't even get that far as the non-super-video-game-forum-browsing people I know didn't even knew there was a difference, most picking up the game for whatever console they owned, or their console of choice.

The way GAF nitpicks differences between the PS3 and 360 version of a game isn't indicative of the entire gaming populace.

 

[Vinci]

PS3 version of RDR was not hideous, but to say that it was in any way good is an overstatement. I'm not a super picky person, but that damn game glitched out on me like a damn madman the moment I hit Mexico. YMMV.

 

[a Master Ninja]

[*]Not in the article, but of interest: PS2 hardware sales were within 5K of PSP hardware sales, from what I was able to estimate.

So why did NPD stop releasing PS2 numbers, anyway?

 

[jvm]

So why did NPD stop releasing PS2 numbers, anyway?

Don't know. It is possible Sony requested it.

I kind of wonder how it will look if PS2 > PSP in, say, December.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

• Not in the article, but of interest: PS2 hardware sales were within 5K of PSP hardware sales, from what I was able to estimate.

Christ. Can't believe that this system is still chugging along.

People called me crazy when I said that SONY should not have even bothered to launch the PS3 in 2006 and should have just kept pushing the PS2 for a few more years. The system was still on fire back then and the fact that it's still chugging along almost 4 years later proves my point.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

So why did NPD stop releasing PS2 numbers, anyway?

Embarrassment on Sony's part, in relation to the PSP numbers.

@ Flying_Phoenix

Sony had to react to the Xbox 360, look how hard it was for them to catch up as it was.

 

[donny2112]

Don't know. It is possible Sony requested it.

NPD tried to axe PS2 numbers quite a while back, but then Sony put it in their press release, anyway. NPD had PS2 back in the next month. I think it's more that NPD doesn't want to publicly share any data. Last generation, there were basically four systems. Before dropping PS2, there were six getting reported on. The December PSP question may not matter if NPD stops releasing PSP sales each month before then, anyways. Maybe it'll last until 3DS gets released.

I really think David Riley/NPD hate putting out any data publicly each month, though.

Edit:
By the way, very good observation about most of the Wii software seeming to come from initial purchasers. There was a brief mention of that in last month's NPD thread. The lack of significant levels of follow-on purchases, I think, has a ton to do with the lack of an official Player's Choice line from Nintendo. PS3/360 have shown that, for the most part, their back catalog doesn't sell a ton. Second month and later seem to be depressed compared to last gen for those. Nintendo, on the other hand, has a decent environment of mid-priced titles, but it's usually discounted third-party games which generally need to be avoided, anyways. :lol An official Player's Choice line could really be cleaning up for Nintendo, but they just refuse to do it. It boggles the mind.

And since if this starts a discussion on PC and Wii this'll come up, I'm talking about games that aren't currently selling now. Don't make MKWii PC. Make Twilight Princess, Super Paper Mario, Metroid Prime 3, etc. PC. Stuff still selling now can keep the higher price just like last gen with GameCube saw Super Smash Bros. Melee sell at a premium even though it was still in the PC line.

 

[seattle6418]

The question is that nobody knows the real "active" 360 userbase.

There is the piracy, true, but there is also people that bought several 360 (not only replacement units, also people that bought a slim or even another console because the arcade price is quite low), and there is people that bought the 360 in the first years (when PS3 wasn't out yet, or it costed 600$) and now they jumped to PS3 (after the price down or after the slim), people with two consoles that are silver and buy online games in PS3, and even people that left gaming.

My impression is that the "active" PS3 ratio is higher, because is a newer console. PS3 big numbers in US are from the last 2 years, after the 400$ price down, and specially after the 300$ price down.

So, even if the difference in units sold is like 8 million, the "real" difference should be much lower.

Also, the match of PS2 down - PS3 up in Madden make us think that a lot of people stayed with PS2 until PS3 was cheap enough to jump to this gen.

I agree 100% with this. I know it´s a touchy subject, but it has to have something to do with it.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

PS3 version of RDR was not hideous, but to say that it was in any way good is an overstatement. I'm not a super picky person, but that damn game glitched out on me like a damn madman the moment I hit Mexico. YMMV.

Glitches in RDR weren't a PS3 exclusive. That was a multiplatform feature.

 

[Vinci]

Glitches in RDR weren't a PS3 exclusive. That was a multiplatform feature.

Really? Horrible quality control on that game. Was massively enjoying it till it became a slideshow of my horse running into the air over a train in Mexico. Which was fun once or twice, but that always happened for some reason.

 

[DangerousDave]

No it wasn't. Not saying there aren't differences, but they are negligible. Random RDR buyer isn't probably going to be able to tell the difference unless literally side by side, but probably won't even get that far as the non-super-video-game-forum-browsing people I know didn't even knew there was a difference, most picking up the game for whatever console they owned, or their console of choice.

The way GAF nitpicks differences between the PS3 and 360 version of a game isn't indicative of the entire gaming populace.

Well, if someone has the opportunity of choosing between the PS3 and the 360 version is because it has both consoles. And the differences between versions was known in all main gaming sites (not only GAF) before launch.

But, yeah, there are other reasons about some games going better on PS3 and other going better on 360 (the kind of game is one of them, or if the game was very attached to Sony brand in past gen), but it still seems to be, in software, closer games sold than if we check only the 360-PS3 ratios.

NCAA, for example, sold very similar, also. PS3 users like more sport games than 360 ones?

 

[Meier]

I can't believe Nintendo has not announced some sort of re-designed Wii yet given its declines on a worldwide level. It seems like a cheaper/slimmer unit that also plays DVDs or something along those lines would be inevitable.

 

[jamesinclair]

[*]Not in the article, but of interest: PS2 hardware sales were within 5K of PSP hardware sales, from what I was able to estimate.

Eat it sony.

 

[EagleEyes]

Once Halo Reach launches that modest $100 million advantage that the 360 has in software sales will grow significantly and then will be absolutely huge by the time Black Ops arrives.

 

[Vinci]

I can't believe Nintendo has not announced some sort of re-designed Wii yet given its declines on a worldwide level. It seems like a cheaper/slimmer unit that also plays DVDs or something along those lines would be inevitable.

If they announce anything console-related, it will be their next generation system. They've never wanted to include DVD playability in any of their consoles, there's not much slimmer that they can make the thing and have it be worthwhile, and... honestly, I just don't think they care to. Right now, they're in 3DS mode. Which is smart.

 

[Beer Monkey]

I agree 100% with this. I know it´s a touchy subject, but it has to have something to do with it.

So when a Call of Duty game sells disproportionately high on 360 it's because the 360 has more shooter fans but if a Madden game sells disproportionally high on PS3 it can't possibly be because the PS3 has more sports fans?

Personally I think the Madden sales are a combination of the marketing and that the PS3 is stronger with the sports game demographic.

 

[donny2112]

Once Halo Reach launches that modest $100 million advantage that the 360 has in software sales will grow significantly and then will be absolutely huge by the time Black Ops arrives.

Only to be decimated by Wii's December. Really. I think Wii software was something like 2x 360 in revenue last December or something.

Not that it matters, though. Wii is floundering. It's just floundering at some highish levels.

 

[Vinci]

Not that it matters, though. Wii is floundering. It's just floundering at levels the other guys haven't reached, yet.

The 360, at the very least, is going to retain some momentum for some time software-wise. Unless Kinect somehow completely kills that momentum. It's simply getting too much software support to collapse very easily. The PS3 is doing fairly well on this note as well. The Wii... yeah, it's getting nothing outside of Nintendo's titles.

 

[DangerousDave]

So when a Call of Duty game sells disproportionately high on 360 it's because the 360 has more shooter fans but if a Madden game sells disproportionally high on PS3 it can't possibly be because the PS3 has more sports fans?

Personally I think the Madden sales are a combination of the marketing and that the PS3 is stronger with the sports game demographic.

Well, Call of Duty not only aims the 360 userbase... it has also DLC timed exclusivity.

 

[donny2112]

The Wii... yeah, it's getting nothing outside of Nintendo's titles.

I think this year'll be worse numbers-wise than last for Wii, but, really, how does what's quoted differ from last year? The "big" third-party title on Wii last year was Just Dance, which opened up ~10K in November (IIRC from Nintendo's briefing) and was a surprise hit that just kept on selling. There wasn't anything supposedly "big" to expect for the system that I can remember. Epic Mickey alone is probably a bigger potential third-party hit than anything going into last Fall for Wii in the U.S.

Just saying. :lol

 

[Busaiku]

I'd think that, rather than the DS, the major cause for handheld software decline would likely be the continued fall of the PSP.
It's definitely significantly down in terms of hardware, and I can only imagine software is the same.

I would go as far as assuming that DS software may even be at a stronger position this year than a few previous years, given the chart you posted regarded console vs handheld software.

 

[FoneBone]

Just Dance, which opened up ~10K in November (IIRC from Nintendo's briefing)

I don't remember Nintendo saying anything of the sort at their briefing, and I'm 99% sure you're mistaken... not that it didn't have good legs, but there's just no way it launched that low.

 

[EagleEyes]

Well, Call of Duty not only aims the 360 userbase... it has also DLC timed exclusivity.

Let me see you try and explain why games like Dragon age and Assassin's Creed II sale quite a bit better on 360? Those aren't shooters.

 

[Karma]

Let me see you try and explain why games like Dragon age and Assassin's Creed II sale quite a bit better on 360? Those aren't shooters.

Explain away the 360 attach rate as well.

 

[REMEMBER CITADEL]

Explain away the 360 attach rate as well.

Good point. If there are really significantly less 360 users around than the sales numbers would lead you to believe, the real attach rates must be phenomenally high.

Spoiler

in before "software sales are so high only because Xbox 360 scratches discs"

 

[Fuzzy]

I don't remember Nintendo saying anything of the sort at their briefing, and I'm 99% sure you're mistaken... not that it didn't have good legs, but there's just no way it launched that low.

Not only is he right, he was being generous.

 

[fernoca]

Good point. If there are really significantly less 360 users around than the sales numbers would lead you to believe, the real attach rates must be phenomenally high.

Spoiler

in before "software sales are so high only because Xbox 360 scratches discs"

Yep.
According to some people, is like not only people re-buy Xbox 360s every month, they also re-buy their entire library of Xbox 360 games.

 

[Boney]

What's with all the install base. It has nothing to do, it's all about potential audience. Consoles reach a point where install base isn't an issue. Determing factors are marketing and potential audience (which is not the same as install base).