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jvm · Jan 17, 2011

Over the weekend I wrote up some comments on the final 2010 results and where things could go in 2011. Gamasutra is graciously hosting the article:
Direct link to Gamasutra story about December 2010 NPD data.
Some stuff folks might be interested in:

We've all seen that software dollar sales were down from $9.9 billion to $9.4 billion. Unit sales were also down, from 250 million to 233 million. That puts the industry back at 2007 levels. (See image below.)
Both PS3 and Xbox 360 software unit sales up for the year, Wii down slightly. Total current generation console software units and dollars up, everyone else down.
NPD's consumer spending report (which includes social network games, used games, digital distribution, etc.) appears to show that 1H10 had the same level of revenue as 2H10. That's very unusual, I think.
According to comments by our friend Mr. Pachter, I estimated PS2 sales at 76K and PSP sales at 428K. I will let donny2112 decide if those are official enough for the hardware thread.

An image from the article:

I'll be around all day, so when you find mistakes, please let me know. I'll try to answer questions too, if there's something you think I got wrong or that would be worth chatting about.

As always, I'm up for corrections, comments, etc. Please don't take a lack of immediate response personally -- I may simply not be here. My ~~overlords~~editors will probably be watching the thread, so changes may happen without a direct response from me.

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
2007: Oct Nov Dec
2008: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Hammer24 · Jan 17, 2011

Have been waiting for this, thx for sharing.

jvm · Jan 17, 2011

Additional images that I never got around to using:

(Included in article, added here for completeness.)

LosDaddie · Jan 17, 2011

Thanks for posting this, JVM.

I'm going to print this out and read during lunch.

Souldriver · Jan 17, 2011

So can we finally get an estimation of PSP sales this month, given the "total hardware number for 2010"?

jvm · Jan 17, 2011

Souldriver said:
So can we finally get an estimation of PSP sales this month, given the "total hardware number for 2010"?

Or you can just read the OP.

ItWasMeantToBe19 · Jan 17, 2011

Intriguing that both the PSP and PS3 had its top two years back-to-back and both had the exact same system sales in both years. I could see the PS3 decline next year like the PSP did the year after its two peak years. Love all of these graphs but there doesn't seem to be a 360 one.

Souldriver · Jan 17, 2011

jvm said:
Or you can just read the OP.

I did, but I don't understand the wording of "estimations made according to comments of Pachter" and why donnie has to decide if they're official.

Megadragon15 · Jan 17, 2011

What is interesting are the first two comments on the article. Spin?

jvm · Jan 17, 2011

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Intriguing that both the PSP and PS3 had its top two years back-to-back and both had the exact same system sales in both years. I could see the PS3 decline next year like the PSP did the year after its two peak years. Love all of these graphs but there doesn't seem to be a 360 one.

It's in the article. I'll link to it from here.

Dynoro · Jan 17, 2011

Thanks, as always, for the article jvm

Spiegel · Jan 17, 2011

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Intriguing that both the PSP and PS3 had its top two years back-to-back and both had the exact same system sales in both years. I could see the PS3 decline next year like the PSP did the year after its two peak years. Love all of these graphs but there doesn't seem to be a 360 one.

Not really.
- Sony will drop the price of the PS3 this/next year
- PSP had its last pricedrop in early 2007

I mean, PS3 can possibly decline but the situation is very different.

ItWasMeantToBe19 · Jan 17, 2011

Spiegel said:
Not really.
- Sony will drop the price of the PS3 this/next year
- PSP had its last pricedrop in early 2007

I mean, PS3 can possibly decline but the situation is very different.

PS3 does still seem to be the situation of a normal console except a year late which would seem to predict a decline like the PSP though.

Hammer24 · Jan 17, 2011

I still don´t like the graphs using "launch aligned", like f.i.:

They always leave out the competitive landscape, and we know nothing happens in a vacuum.

Ruud_Luiten · Jan 17, 2011

101% software!?

jvm · Jan 17, 2011

Ruud_Luiten said:
101% software!?

Rounding!

Spiegel · Jan 17, 2011

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
PS3 does still seem to be the situation of a normal console except a year late which would seem to predict a decline like the PSP though.

PS3 is not following a normal console cycle. It's still 299$

ItWasMeantToBe19 · Jan 17, 2011

Spiegel said:
PS3 is not following a normal console cycle. It's still 299$

That's half of what it launched at. The PS2 was at half of what it launched at the point the PS3 is at now.

DaBuddaDa · Jan 17, 2011

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
That's half of what it launched at. The PS2 was at half of what it launched at the point the PS3 is at now.

Launched at $499, $599 was the "enthusiast" model.

Spiegel · Jan 17, 2011

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
That's half of what it launched at. The PS2 was at half of what it launched at the point the PS3 is at now.

Do the math again, PS3 was 499/599 at launch and 299/399 now. One is not half of the other.
And the point is that 299$ as a base price is not a mass market price.

Am I saying PS3 is going to grow exponentially when Sony drops the price? No, but I think it can easily maintain the 2009/10 numbers.

ItWasMeantToBe19 · Jan 17, 2011

DaBuddaDa said:
Launched at $499, $599 was the "enthusiast" model.

This is true so it really isn't half of the price I guess.

jcm · Jan 17, 2011

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
PS3 does still seem to be the situation of a normal console except a year late which would seem to predict a decline like the PSP though.

Not if it acts like the 360.

ZealousD · Jan 17, 2011

DaBuddaDa said:
Launched at $499, $599 was the "enthusiast" model.

That's a load. The 60GB model sold better than the 20GB model by far. Customer perception was clearly of the mindset that the PS3 was $599.

jvm · Jan 17, 2011

ZealousD said:
That's a load. The 60GB model sold better than the 20GB model by far. Customer perception was clearly of the mindset that the PS3 was $599.

I think they also undersupplied the 20GB models. Would be interesting to know how many NPD says were sold.

Hammer24 · Jan 17, 2011

jvm said:
I think they also undersupplied the 20GB models. Would be interesting to know how many NPD says were sold.

Maybe I remember wrong, but didn´t you get average pricepoint data? Those could be compared.

jvm · Jan 17, 2011

Hammer24 said:
Maybe I remember wrong, but didn´t you get average pricepoint data? Those could be compared.

Far after release. I didn't start writing my columns until June 2007.

Hammer24 · Jan 17, 2011

jvm said:
Far after release. I didn't start writing my columns until June 2007.

And how has the average pricepoint changed in the timeframe you have data for?

SolarPowered · Jan 17, 2011

Fantastic article

It's chocked full of pretty in depth information. It is kind of frightening to continually see red ink even as hardware sales skyrocket and juggernauts like Assasin's creed and Call of Duty run rampant. I also loved the last paragraph echoing the need for numbers from digitals sources like PSN, Steam and Xbl.

jvm said:
Additional images that I never got around to using:

Only one thing comes to mind when I see this picture.

They've finally managed to starve the beast...

totowhoa · Jan 17, 2011

Really informative article. Given the software released in 2010 for the Wii, its hardware sales, and the assumption that much of Nintendo's resources will be shifted towards the 3DS this year (i.e., I don't think we should expect another significant first-party developed evergreen or core title in 2011 save for the holiday), I really don't think anything other than a 50 dollar price drop would manage to keep Wii hardware sells strong in lieu of Microsoft's ongoing rebound.

krae_man · Jan 17, 2011

jvm said:
I think they also undersupplied the 20GB models. Would be interesting to know how many NPD says were sold.

From my memory, Sony only did a token initial shipment at launch, then never shipped anymore because they were losing $300/20GB system compared to only $240 with the 60GB system. Sony claimed they got rid of the 20gb because it wasn't selling well. Funny how sales go to zero when you don't ship any.

Some 20gb units showed up on Gamestop.com for $349 after the $399 40gb SKU came out too. Guess they found some in the back of a warehouse or something.

Sammy Samusu · Jan 17, 2011

So Wii is the only console to sell 7 millions units in one year? Nice!

Insane chart... LOL!

Beer Monkey · Jan 17, 2011

DaBuddaDa said:
Launched at $499, $599 was the "enthusiast" model.

20GB non-wifi PS3 was only available in very limitedsupply at launch and was pulled from the market by Sony almost immediately because it had a greater loss margin.

PS3 launched at $599.99.

duk · Jan 17, 2011

Looks like every year has been the year of the 360

ZealousD · Jan 17, 2011

jvm said:
I think they also undersupplied the 20GB models. Would be interesting to know how many NPD says were sold.

My anecdotal evidence as a retail employee suggests that if the 20GB model was undersupplied, it was not a huge deal. People were clearly after the 60GB model. It would not surprise me if the ratio was 5:1 or higher.

The point is, customer perception was that the 60GB model was the one to get, and so even though a $499 model was present, the PS3 has effectively cut its price in half from $599 to $299.

velvet_nitemare · Jan 17, 2011

jvm, does the software sales by platform holder include handhelds?

jvm · Jan 17, 2011

velvet_nitemare said:
jvm, does the software sales by platform holder include handhelds?

Yes. The Nintendo figure is Wii + NDS. The Sony figure is PS2 + PS3 + PSP. The Microsoft figure is obvious.

duk · Jan 17, 2011

I wonder if the PS3 launched at 399 and 499 if the situation would be different now.

FrankT · Jan 17, 2011

jvm said:

Got this for the consoles only?

Hammer24 said:

According to Pachter, the current generation consoles Xbox 360, Wii, and PS3 collectively increased their software unit sales by nearly 8%. While the Wii did decline (from over 70 million to 65 million units), the growth in the PS3 and Xbox 360 markets more than compensated for that decline. Software revenue also increased on those platforms in 2010, albeit by a much more modest 3%.

What is the exact figure on the chart for 360?

Also any updated attach ratios?

velvet_nitemare · Jan 17, 2011

jvm said:
Yes. The Nintendo figure is Wii + NDS. The Sony figure is PS2 + PS3 + PSP. The Microsoft figure is obvious.

Oh wow, that MS figure looks more impressive now.

SolarPowered · Jan 17, 2011

velvet_nitemare said:
Oh wow, that MS figure looks more impressive now.

No kidding...

Beer Monkey · Jan 17, 2011

ZealousD said:
My anecdotal evidence as a retail employee suggests that if the 20GB model was undersupplied, it was not a huge deal.

It was a big deal to me, as I spent a couple of weeks desperately trying to find the 20GB and finally gave up and settled for the (worse deal) of the 60GB.

ViperVisor · Jan 17, 2011

Such a strange generation.

360 is an aberration with this new lease on life. MS wants to keep going.
PS3. Sony has no choice but to keep going.
Wii. Nintendo can do what they want based on the previous based god blessings.

Nintendo could continue to reap the bit less large rewards for the time being or can cut new Wii software to only auxiliary teams while finishing the current games.

Cut the price to $100 at e3 and get ready for next console to launch in 2012, the earlier the better.
If Wii2 is just gonna be a super Wii they should use Nintendo made games to sell that and not more of what they have now.
Wii is a flawed software cow that the PS2 wasn't. Typically you can see a console sale as a crater of potential created. That is why it is usually worth making no money or even taking a lose to create that explosive. Whatever combo it is of soil and trigger Nintendo hasn't been able get highly productive wells.

The only reason Nintendo shouldn't do this is if Wii2 is beyond just some tweaks. If the next console needs more time to find that next something to make a Wii worthy of a name like Super or Ultra Wii.

Gareth Bale · Jan 17, 2011

jvm said:
(Included in article, added here for completeness.)

I think it's pretty obvious that Sony need to release PSKinect next year.

The graphs clearly show this.

Sydle · Jan 17, 2011

jvm said:
Yes. The Nintendo figure is Wii + NDS. The Sony figure is PS2 + PS3 + PSP. The Microsoft figure is obvious.

Oh wow at Microsoft.

szaromir · Jan 17, 2011

Spiegel said:
PS3 is not following a normal console cycle. It's still 299$

It is following the current standard. In fact, of the current platforms it dropped the most in relative and absolute terms (PS3 -40% and $200; 360 - -33% and $100; Wii -20% and $50).

jcm · Jan 17, 2011

ViperVisor said:
Such a strange generation.
PS3. Sony has no choice but to keep going.

I don't understand the doom and gloom regarding PS3. They sold 13M last year. They're going to sell 15M PS3s this year. The 360's biggest year (prior to this one, probably, but MS doesn't forecast) was 11M. And yet, somehow it's done for? I think the NPD data gives people here a very skewed view of worldwide sales.

Cut the price to $100 at e3 and get ready for next console to launch in 2012, the earlier the better.

A 50% price reduction for the Wii would be just plain dumb. It's way down, of course, but it's still selling very well.

Fularu · Jan 17, 2011

jcm said:
A 50% price reduction for the Wii would be just plain dumb. It's way down, of course, but it's still selling very well.

Isn't the Wii still selling better this year (where everyone was doom and gloom about it) than PS2's best year?

Also that software graph is kinda flawed in the sense that it's based on Dollar and not on volume

It would be very interesting to see the same pie chart with volume of software sold, I wouldn't be surprised by a very different picture (inversed would be my guess).

ViperVisor · Jan 17, 2011

jcm said:
I don't understand the doom and gloom regarding PS3.

It's not doom and gloom. Just that Sony has to keep going with plan A. They can't be proactive in a new console for 2012 like Nintendo could or maybe MS. They are waiting and will react.

szaromir · Jan 17, 2011

ViperVisor said:
It's not doom and gloom. Just that Sony has to keep going with plan A. They can't be proactive in a new console for 2012 like Nintendo could or maybe MS. They are waiting and will react.

Not really. If the business model for the new console allows profitability since day 1, they might drop PS3 like a rock if necessary. It's better to remain a relevant player in the market than be faithful to their 2005 propaganda.

JoshuaJSlone · Jan 17, 2011

Fularu said:
Isn't the Wii still selling better this year (where everyone was doom and gloom about it) than PS2's best year?

Not quite. PS2's best year (2002) was 8.4 million. No other years passed 7 million, though.

PS2's fourth full year, it was 4.7 million. Which... really makes X360 and PS3 look pretty good, too.

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December 2010 NPD Article (Gamasutra)

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