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January 2011 NPD Article (Gamasutra)

J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Over the weekend I wrote up some comments on the January 2011 results reported by the NPD Group. Gamasutra is graciously hosting the article:
Direct link to Gamasutra story about January 2011 NPD data.
Some stuff folks might be interested in:
  • Dance Central at 217K for January, 1.2 million LTD, excluding bundles.
  • LBP2 at 353K, compared to 356K for first two months of LBP1 and 1.47 million LTD (including the LBP1 GotY version, excluding hardware bundles).
  • Hardware ASP for Xbox 360: $306.
  • NDS at 291K, estimated from our friend Mr. Pachter's comments and historical values of NDS sales.
I thought people would ask for combined rate graphs, which aren't in the article, so I made them especially for GAF.
all-hw-rates.png


all-sw-rates.png


I'll be around much of day, so when you find mistakes, please let me know. I'll try to answer questions too, if there's something you think I got wrong or that would be worth chatting about.

As always, I'm up for corrections, comments, etc. Please don't take a lack of immediate response personally -- I may simply not be here. My overlordseditors will probably be watching the thread, so changes may happen without a direct response from me.

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
2007: Oct Nov Dec
2008: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
 
Good read as always. I am still through it but thumbs for this article.

Thank as always jvm :)

edit : I find strange that DS is only around 291k. If the 360 was the top selling plateform for this month, Microsoft would have said it in their PR.
 
Hardware ASP for Xbox 360: $306.
Click to expand...

Heck of price increase heh.

For a system in its sixth year on the market, which hasn't had a proper price cut since September 2008, and whose average price has increased to over $300, those kind of January sales are unheard of.
Click to expand...

Indeed.

Dance Central at 217K for January, 1.2 million LTD, excluding bundles.
Click to expand...

Good start, but what bundles are you referring to exactly? Any of those HW bundles during the holidays with the 2-3 games sold together from like Wal-Mart and Gamestop?

It would be nice to have those figures as well because people were basically paying near full price in those bundles anyhow.

Would be nice to have the LTD of Kinect Sports. Can't be too far behind with a 1 million in the first two months.
 
Only 16,000 units for The Fight? Ouch!

IMO what Sony needs to do for Move is to convince publishers like EA to support it in big cross-platform shooters like Dead Space 2, Crysis 2, etc.
 
Assuming that LBP number is US-only (this being the NPD thread, after all) does the 1.47 million number include the game being bundled with the system?
 
Shurs said:
Assuming that LBP number is US-only (this being the NPD thread, after all) does the 1.47 million number include the game being bundled with the system?
Click to expand...
No. Should have said that.
 
Beer Monkey said:
Only 16,000 units for The Fight? Ouch!

IMO what Sony needs to do for Move is to convince publishers like EA to support it in big cross-platform shooters like Dead Space 2, Crysis 2, etc.
Click to expand...
Why should a big publisher support Move? It is up to Sony to show that software sells on Move. If it doesn't (which seems to be the case), that is Sony's problem.
 
Megadragon15 said:
Why should a big publisher support Move? It is up to Sony to show that software sells on Move. It it doesn't, that is Sony's problem.
Click to expand...

I disagree. Initially Sony should throw some development dollars at publishers to cover the expense of adding Move support to games where it makes sense.
 
jvm said:
all-sw-rates.png
Click to expand...

Using estimated ASPs based on the sporadic tie ratios/LTDs for units that we have, can you do a graph like this with units?

Edit:
Thanks for combining the three onto one graph for GAF, btw. :)
 
donny2112 said:
Using estimated ASPs based on the sporadic tie ratios/LTDs for units that we have, can you do a graph like this with units?
Click to expand...
I could, but that's more work than I can spare right now. Keep bugging me, and I'll put something together.

Edit:
Thanks for combining the three onto one graph for GAF, btw. :)
Click to expand...
I could hear people complaining before I even finished the article, so I figured it would be good form to have it ready. :D
 
jvm said:
I could, but that's more work than I can spare right now. Keep bugging me, and I'll put something together.

I could hear people complaining before I even finished the article, so I figured it would be good form to have it ready. :D
Click to expand...
*bugs*
 
By the way, still interested in whether people agree with me that MS got its PR wrong: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=26052406&postcount=905

Edit: Oh, and if someone wants to double check something for me, tell us if you think the $551 million figure in Microsoft's PR is correct.

Here's what you do. Michael Pachter told us Xbox 360 software revenue. Assume an Xbox 360 hardware ASP of $300 (close enough, for now). Multiply out to get hardware revenue. Now subtract your hardware and software revenue figures from $551 million. This is Xbox 360 accessory revenue in January, right? The total accessory segment revenue figure for January was $235 million. Do your figures make sense?

Xbox 360 software was $170 million. Under the assumption of a $300 ASP for hardware, you get $114 million for hardware revenue. That's $284 million. If Microsoft's $551 million figure is right, then they sold $267 million in accessories for January. Yet, the total for all of January was $235 million.

Actual ASP for Xbox 360 tomorrow in the article.

I figure Microsoft meant $451 million, or otherwise made some other mistake. Hard to figure otherwise. Hope I got my numbers right.

Don't you wish you could make a $100 million mistake in your PR? ;)

Fortunately, I didn't need the above for the article, but ran across it while doing some other stuff.
Click to expand...
 
Kinect still kicking ass. I wonder if Viacom regrets dumping Harmonix now, Dance Central is well on its way to outselling the last few years of RB/GH updates. It should be interesting to see how the next round of software performs after launch, I know that Child of Eden is the only Kinect game on my radar for the first half of the year.

And I wonder if the former Rare employees who bailed out into an uncertain UK economy are starting to feel as if their decision was a bit premature.

Amazing that after more than 5 years on the market, MS has now made their most desirable SKUs, ever, at $299 and $399. They will probably hold off on a price drop until the Gears 3 launch.
 
other Move-required titles had similarly low sales. That list includes titles like Sony's EyePet, SingStar Dance, Start the Party!, Kung Fu Rider, The Shoot, TV Superstars, and Ubisoft's Racquet Sports.
Click to expand...

That's incorrect, Singstar Dance does not require move.

Also, I'm extremely impressed with the ASP of the 360.
 
AranhaHunter said:
That's incorrect, Singstar Dance does not require move.

I'm extremely impressed with the ASP of the 360.
Click to expand...
It does require Move if a person wants to dance, which is the primary focus of the title.
 
Beer Monkey said:
I disagree. Initially Sony should throw some development dollars at publishers to cover the expense of adding Move support to games where it makes sense.
Click to expand...
Seems just a bit late to take advantage of and ride launch momentum further, doesn't it? Sony screwed Move up and some retailers already seem to be flushing Move-specific software to make room for stuff that actually sells. Now, if they get some significant deals done, it will take longer to see third party software output that really pushes the controller and it will probably cost a lot more sweets coming from Sony to get retail software dedicated to a peripheral which has now very questionable value to the PS3 market thanks to the known numbers over the accessory's first four months of sale. On top of all that, Sony must make a push to raise the controller's visibility again. A lot of energy just seems wasted post-launch without the right plan, right software, and right timing. All that momentum seems to have evaporated it will take a lot more than KZ3 (and a bunch of other 'compatible' releases) to kickstart it again. Of course, Sony should probably love the high margin peripheral (Sharpshooter) introduced for their other peripheral (Move). Situation is pretty much E3 or bust for Move, I think, because there's no way Sony's going to spend all that it will take to get this thing off of the ground again as it seems to have come back to earth already. (So, yeah, I'm thinking that many third parties are starting to fill out that toetag.)
 
Megadragon15 said:
It does require move if a person wants to dance, which is the primary focus of the title.
Click to expand...

The primary focus of the title is to sing. The game probably bombed, but that doesn't change the fact that the game does not require move.

EDIT: Here - Playstation Move Compatible
 
Great article, as usual!
Just a minor complaint: the LBP graph/table is a tad misleading, as the Jan11 number should be marked as LTD or cumulative, when compared to the other months given.
 
Hammer24 said:
What about purchases made directly on the box, like sales of MS Points or Live Gold renewals. Those wouldn´t be tracked by NPD, but MS could well count them in here.
Click to expand...
I believe the PR cites as its source for that specific statemtn the NPD Group. And $100 million in purchases made directly through Live in January? Seems unlikely to me, but I'm open to suggestions otherwise.
 
A couple of thoughts on why there is a lack of Move-required software selling at retail.

1-The best Move-required retail game is packed in with the bundle.

2-There are a bunch of Move-compatible games for people to play.

3-There are a number of quality titles available on the Playstation network.

One doesn't need to rely on Move-required retail games in order to enjoy their experience with the peripheral. I think comparing it directly with Kinect, which doesn't offer games through XBLA or games that can be played with a controller, is somewhat unfair.

One thing that is clear is that Move is not a system seller. It seems like the peripheral is largely selling to those who already own a PS3 rather than to those who are thinking of buying one.
 
jvm said:
Seems unlikely to me, but I'm open to suggestions otherwise.
Click to expand...

It seems big, but I think not impossibly so.
- as long as we got numbers, we knew that the MS point cards were the best selling accessories, so one could assume, that there is also a healthy number of sales directly on the box for people that stored their credit card data
- then there is this auto renewal function for Live Gold, so many people complain about. When many people complain, mprobably many still let it go through
- then there was this Family Gold offer, that IIRC was only good when done directly with MS

But in the end, yeah, could well have been a misprint too, as we´re fishing in the dark here.
 
Shurs said:
One doesn't need to rely on Move-required retail games in order to enjoy their experience with the peripheral. I think comparing it directly with Kinect, which doesn't offer games through XBLA or games that can be played with a controller, is somewhat unfair.
Click to expand...

The fact that Dance Central has sold over a million copies while it cannot be played with a controller is what makes it so damned impressive.

If any PSN Move games are selling like gangbusters I'd imagine Sony would mention it in their PR.
 
Shurs said:
A couple of thoughts on why there is a lack of Move-required software selling at retail.

1-The best Move-required retail game is packed in with the bundle.

2-There are a bunch of Move-compatible games for people to play.

3-There are a number of quality titles available on the Playstation network.

One doesn't need to rely on Move-required retail games in order to enjoy their experience with the peripheral. I think comparing it directly with Kinect, which doesn't offer games through XBLA or games that can be played with a controller, is somewhat unfair.

One thing that is clear is that Move is not a system seller. It seems like the peripheral is largely selling to those who already own a PS3 rather than to those who are thinking of buying one.
Click to expand...
This point always leads to this question of why should a person spend $100 (+any applicable sales tax) to play those Move-compatible games when they could just play them with a regular contoller and save the money?
 
Beer Monkey said:
The fact that Dance Central has sold over a million copies while it cannot be played with a controller is what makes it so damned impressive.

If any PSN Move games are selling like gangbusters I'd imagine Sony would mention it in their PR.
Click to expand...

Oh, don't get me wrong, I was not trying to diminish the success of Kinect or its software lineup.

I was just stating that Move owners have a lot more options rather than relying solely on retail Move-required titles.
 
Megadragon15 said:
This point always leads to this question of why should a person spend $100 (+any applicable sales tax) to play those Move-compatible games when they could just play them with a regular contoller and save the money?
Click to expand...

The best comparison I've seen is likening the Move to an arcade stick. Every console fighting game is certainly playable with a standard pad (or at worst, a specialized fighting pad), but if you want an optimal control experience (or to be competitive online), you're going to shell out $40-$150 for a decent stick. The stick can then be used for all fighting game purchases and some 2D games purchased after that, making it a worthwhile investment. Some people will always be more comfortable with a pad, so saturation will never be 1:1 for any given game.

So far, sales of Move have positioned it in much the same way. In other words,

- Move:Killzone 3::TE Stick:Street Fighter 4
- Kinect:Dance Central::Wii Balance Board:Wii Fit
 
Er, typo in the article?

While Move may not being living up to Sony's hopes, the PS3 software situation continues to improve. Even as software growth has fallen, PS3 owners have maintained the momentum in software, as shown in the annualized rate graph above. More than that, however, Sony has a strong slate of software for all of 2011.
Click to expand...

Hardware maybe?
 
AranhaHunter said:
That's incorrect, Singstar Dance does not require move.
Click to expand...
Fixed.
Hammer24 said:
Just a minor complaint: the LBP graph/table is a tad misleading, as the Jan11 number should be marked as LTD or cumulative, when compared to the other months given.
Click to expand...
Fixed.
Dedication Through Light said:
Er, typo in the article? Hardware maybe?
Click to expand...
Fixing.
 
jvm said:
I believe the PR cites as its source for that specific statemtn the NPD Group. And $100 million in purchases made directly through Live in January? Seems unlikely to me, but I'm open to suggestions otherwise.
Click to expand...
Do we have an idea on how many map packs Blops sold? You'd have to think that along with Halo Reach map packs could earn a significant chunk of change.
 
I doubt MS would ever lump in US Live sales with NPD retail figures. Either Pachter is off on the SW, the ASP is off or MS goofed up or some other explanation.
 
Hammer24 said:
Don´t you think they compare internal numbers to NPD data? A mixup would not be impossible.
Click to expand...

I don't think they would combine the two when qouting NPD figures, ever. They have given out a total spend many times and I've never known them to do that. It also looks silly as you can always compare the total spend with the whole pie, which wouldn't make any sense if they were to combine.
 
Hammer24 said:
It seems big, but I think not impossibly so.
- as long as we got numbers, we knew that the MS point cards were the best selling accessories, so one could assume, that there is also a healthy number of sales directly on the box for people that stored their credit card data
- then there is this auto renewal function for Live Gold, so many people complain about. When many people complain, mprobably many still let it go through
- then there was this Family Gold offer, that IIRC was only good when done directly with MS

But in the end, yeah, could well have been a misprint too, as we´re fishing in the dark here.
Click to expand...

The quote from MS says at retail so it doesn't include any live stuff.
 
The one problem with the article that I noticed was when you were talking about the last 12 months sales. The 360 actually gained just about 200K on the wii, 62K from this month plus they made up the 133K that wii was ahead in Jan of 2010.

Since the 360 outsold the wii in Feb of 2010 its probably unlikely that it catches it next month but the 200K difference for the wii in march of 2010 pretty much guarantees that the 360 will hold the 12 months lead after march barring some crazy turnaround in sales.
 
Seems like the Transition to 3DS may be alot faster in the US than the GBA to DS transition. DS sales dropped like a rock. It cant be a stock issue as DS are easy enough to find.
 
Thanks for the article, I enjoyed reading it. That said...

ps3-annualized-hw-and-sw.png



I can't figure this graph out. It says "millions of systems per year" but it's broken down by quarter. Is this a typo or am I missing something?

Also, it wouldn't be a bad idea to watermark these images.
 
all-hw-rates.png


The separation between the PS3 and 360 after 5/10 is pretty striking. I knew that was when MS took off due to the Slim, but it's clear now that it also contributed to the drop of the PS3. I didn't realize how tightly the PS3's drop off was correlated.
 
GhaleonEB said:
all-hw-rates.png


The separation between the PS3 and 360 after 5/10 is pretty striking. I knew that was when MS took off due to the Slim, but it's clear now that it also contributed to the drop of the PS3. I didn't realize how tightly the PS3's drop off was correlated.
Click to expand...


Yeah, and looking at that you could argue Kinect is hurting the Wii as well.

edit - That said I still don't really understand these per year graphs the are broken down by quarter.
 
PopcornMegaphone said:
Yeah, and looking at that you could argue Kinect is hurting the Wii as well.

edit - That said I still don't really understand these per year graphs the are broken down by quarter.
Click to expand...

From the article:
That is, for the hardware curve, we are measuring total hardware unit sales in the trailing 12-months. Similarly, the software curve is retail software revenue in the trailing 12-months. (One side effect of this view is that it mitigates seasonal effects.)
Click to expand...
 
PopcornMegaphone said:
Yeah, and looking at that you could argue Kinect is hurting the Wii as well.

edit - That said I still don't really understand these per year graphs the are broken down by quarter.
Click to expand...
But they are broken down by months:

09/09 = September, 2009 and so on.
 
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