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PoliGAF Official April 22nd Primary Thread (Democrat Apocalypse)

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R

Rur0ni

Member
Pennsylvania

williampenn.jpg


*************

Lay of the Land

pennheader.jpg


pennpop.png


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Breakdown

penndemo.png



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Delegates at Stake

penndelegates.png


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Likely Candidate Outcome Attitude

Hilliary Rodham Clinton

clintonpenn.jpg


"Thank you! Thank you! I believe in miracles* America! And so do you! HILLARYCLINTON.COM! HILLARYCLINTON.COM!! HILLARYCLINTON.COM!!!"

*"The skies will open, the light will come down, celestial choirs will be singing and everyone will know we should do the right thing and the world will be perfect.”

Barack Hussein Obama

obamapenn.jpg


"Bitter. Clutch. Guns. Religion. Elite."

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RCP Polling Average

rcpaverage.png


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Notes

Quaker State. Milk State. How does Obama favor milk cartons instead?

Judges 4:19

And he said unto her, Give me, I pray thee, a little water to drink; for I am thirsty. And she opened a bottle of milk, and gave him drink, and covered him.

milkpour.jpg


Extra Note

It's already over people. Yawn fest to continue. But I'd like to say, gap has been closed. I predict ~10 spread in Clinton favor as of 4/20.
 
D

Diablos

Member
I'll be voting for Obama in Allegheny County (big red area towards the bottom left). If Obama loses (and he probably will), let's hope it's by a not-so-significant amount.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Hillary - 58%
Obama - 42%

I'll be voting for Obama in Pennsylvania to do my part, but the roughly 10% undecided will likely go Hillary 8 out of 10, so add that to the average 5% polling gap and then add to to that the as yet unweighed impact of all the Obama scandals this month - Wright, bittergate, whateverthefuckmediamadeup - and it'll be a rougher than usual night.

But on the upside, if Obama can shut it tight in Indiana and North Carolina - which he actually has a decent chance of doing, for once - it's genuinely fucking over.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Amir0x said:
Hillary - 58%
Obama - 42%

I'll be voting for Obama in Pennsylvania to do my part, but the roughly 10% undecided will likely go Hillary 8 out of 10, so add that to the average 5% polling gap and then add to to that the as yet unweighed impact of all the Obama scandals this month - Wright, bittergate, whateverthefuckmediamadeup - and it'll be a rougher than usual night.

But on the upside, if Obama can shut it tight in Indiana and North Carolina - which he actually has a decent chance of doing, for once - it's genuinely fucking over.
Click to expand...

He'll blow her out in NC and potentially erase Hillary's Penn. gains, unless her camp's internal numbers (17% victory) are correct. If he beats her in Indiana as well I can't help but think many superdelegates will finally make a universal move
 
D

Diablos

Member
Even though Rendell is for Hillary, I have a feeling Obama will do really well in Philly.

It'll probably come down to Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), I just have a hunch. There's lots of old white Democrats here. LOTS of them.
 
D

Deus Ex Machina

Member
All I can tell you is that in all urban media markets Hillary has gone 100% negative.

In all rural/subburban media markets its 50/50.

A week ago she was running positive cheery ads than suddenly they all changed to be anti-obama.

I don't know what's going to happen Tuesday. All I know is her change of strategy says something.

Obama is winning :D
 
O

Odrion

Banned
Obama - 83

Clinton - Suicide

and she'll win the nomination, being the first female corpse to be a president.
 
N

numble

Member
I'm currently volunteering in the LeHigh Valley (out of Bethleham), helping with student GOTV/canvassing efforts.

I'm from California, was visiting NYU Law School last week, so I figured, why not bus over to PA to lend a hand. It's been a fun time so far, my first day I helped a bit with John Kerry's visit and did some canvassing at LeHigh University, now I'm spending the day at Lafayette College, where we'll be "dorm-storming" later tonight.
 
T

TreIII

Member
Amir0x said:
But on the upside, if Obama can shut it tight in Indiana and North Carolina - which he actually has a decent chance of doing, for once - it's genuinely fucking over.
Click to expand...

But would that be enough to finally SHUT HER UP?

I swear, even if a miracle happened, and he was able to get all 3, some how, she probably would still be all like "IT AIN'T OVER!" and keep us all going until August, regardless.

I'd love nothing better if this Primary season could all be put to bed this week, but knowing Hildawg, I think that may be impossible...unless the Superdelegates finally decide that enough's enough.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
TreIII said:
But would that be enough to finally SHUT HER UP?

I swear, even if a miracle happened, and he was able to get all 3, some how, she probably would still be all like "IT AIN'T OVER!" and keep us all going until August, regardless.

I'd love nothing better if this Primary season could all be put to bed this week, but knowing Hildawg, I think that may be impossible...unless the Superdelegates finally decide that enough's enough.
Click to expand...

Hillary can do whatever she wants, if he wins PA it is legitimately over - all superdelegates would flood to Obama. If he loses (which he will), it'll go on to North Carolina and Indiana. If he wins both, again it's over - there's no contest left which can net her anything that can allow her to win, unless a scandal breaks that Obama molested his own half-sister or something.

If worse case, and he loses EVERY OTHER CONTEST from here on out by 15-to-20 point margins - a literal impossibility - it's still no chance of her winning, and superdelegates will merely flock to Obama when all contests end in June.
 
T

Triumph

Banned
*shakes Magic 8 Ball*

No, that can't be right. Be serious here, Magic 8 Ball.

*shakes again*

Ok, ok. I know that Rendell has been saying in recent days that a 5 point win would be a huge victory, but come on.

*shakes yet again*

Be serious here, my circular friend. Sure Obama has been making a last minute blitz in targeted ads and mega crazy canvassing in certain Philly burbs, but you CAN'T be serious, can you? One more try...

*shakes Magic 8 Ball one last time*

Ok, whatever.

Clinton 51
Obama 48

More like Clinton 56 Obama 44
 
R

Rur0ni

Member
Triumph said:
*shakes Magic 8 Ball*

No, that can't be right. Be serious here, Magic 8 Ball.

*shakes again*

Ok, ok. I know that Rendell has been saying in recent days that a 5 point win would be a huge victory, but come on.

*shakes yet again*

Be serious here, my circular friend. Sure Obama has been making a last minute blitz in targeted ads and mega crazy canvassing in certain Philly burbs, but you CAN'T be serious, can you? One more try...

*shakes Magic 8 Ball one last time*

Ok, whatever.

Clinton 51
Obama 48

More like Clinton 56 Obama 44
Click to expand...
Should this happen, someone needs to photoshop Obama drinking milk.
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Math has always had a overpowerful ideological grip on the Democratic party. It doesn't represent the will of the people.
 
T

TreIII

Member
Amir0x said:
Hillary can do whatever she wants, if he wins PA it is legitimately over - all superdelegates would flood to Obama. If he loses (which he will), it'll go on to North Carolina and Indiana. If he wins both, again it's over - there's no contest left which can net her anything that can allow her to win, unless a scandal breaks that Obama molested his own half-sister or something.

If worse case, and he loses EVERY OTHER CONTEST from here on out by 15-to-20 point margins - a literal impossibility - it's still no chance of her winning, and superdelegates will merely flock to Obama when all contests end in June.
Click to expand...

Eh, I just wish this would all end this week.

But...if it stands to end by NC and Indiana, fine.
 
C

Cheebs

Member
I think some people here would predict Obama would win a primary against Hillary in Mexico based on some predictions in this thread.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Clinton - 56
Obama - 44

hopefully it's

Clinton - 53
Obama - 47

even more hopefully it's

Clinton - 49
Obama - 51
 
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