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[Deus Ex Machina]

Barack Obama at a campaign stop today at Reading High School, Reading, PA

 

[Corwood Rep]

I'm going 55 - 45 on this one. I know the media's gonna pull the "oh look Hillary came back nobody expected this underdog lol" schtick too, which makes it more frustrating.

 

[maximum360]

Meet the Press is just painful to watch. Forget smart commentary.

 

[GaimeGuy]

53-48 for HIllary

 

[Zeed]

I'm going to be optimistic and guess a <10 point victory for Hillary.

 

[RubxQub]

11 point win for Hillary.

Trumpted as the next coming of Jesus.

 

[Cheebs]

Zogby's daily tracking poll had Clintons lead go from +3 to +6 today...

And remember Zogby is considered inaccurate because it ALWAYS over-represents Obama in states he loses...not under represent...

 

[GhaleonEB]

Zogby's daily tracking poll had Clintons lead go from +3 to +6 today...

And remember Zogby is considered inaccurate because it ALWAYS over-represents Obama in states he loses...not under represent...

:lol

 

[kkaabboomm]

my PA prediction
Clinton - 55.5
Obama - 44.5

at an 11% difference. still double digits, no blow out. it'll be "on the line" and the media will say she won, but was it big enough.

popular vote differential, despite it actually not meaning anything, will be probably around 180-220K.

Delegate wise, she'll pull out between +10 to +15 delegates.

those are my predictions, and im sticking with them

 

[Deus Ex Machina]

Zogby's record is poor

 

[DrForester]

my PA prediction
Clinton - 55.5
Obama - 44.5

at an 11% difference. still double digits, no blow out. it'll be "on the line" and the media will say she won, but was it big enough.

popular vote differential, despite it actually not meaning anything, will be probably around 180-220K.

Delegate wise, she'll pull out between +10 to +15 delegates.

those are my predictions, and im sticking with them

Even if Hillary wins by 1% the media will proclaim it a massive comeback victory. They want this to go on till June or beyond and they will report it as a massive victory because it will help Clinton, which in turns helps this primary go on.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Even if Hillary wins by 1% the media will proclaim it a massive comeback victory. They want this to go on till June or beyond and they will report it as a massive victory because it will help Clinton, which in turns helps this primary go on.

jeez why are you guys so paranoid? She's been expected to win this state for the last 3 months.

 

[Cheebs]

Zogby's record is poor

When have they ever under-predicted an Obama margin in a state Obama didnt have a blowout victory in?

Never.

 

[DrForester]

jeez why are you guys so paranoid? She's been expected to win this state for the last 3 months.

Paranoid? I'm probably voting McCain, I just want Obama to win because if McCain looses, he's the person I'd rather have. And anyone who has watched any media coverage of this primary knows that event he smallest of victory's by Clinton will be seen as a massive comeback, regardless of her being expected to win it for months..

 

[schuelma]

Paranoid? I'm probably voting McCain, I just want Obama to win because if McCain looses, he's the person I'd rather have. And anyone who has watched any media coverage of this primary knows that event he smallest of victory's by Clinton will be seen as a massive comeback, regardless of her being expected to win it for months..

I respectfully disagree. Big difference in the media narrative before this primary as opposed to before Texas/Ohio- before those primaries, the media said Obama had to win one of them and indeed polls showed him ahead in Texas right before the primary.

PA by contrast has been seen as a Hillary 10-15 point win for months and there has been plenty of talk in the media that anything under a 10 point victory is a loss.

 

[DrForester]

I respectfully disagree. Big difference in the media narrative before this primary as opposed to before Texas/Ohio- before those primaries, the media said Obama had to win one of them and indeed polls showed him ahead in Texas right before the primary.

PA by contrast has been seen as a Hillary 10-15 point win for months and there has been plenty of talk in the media that anything under a 10 point victory is a loss.

The media will backtrack on that as soon as it's over. Remember the media's ONLY priority is ratings, and this primary fight has been great for ratings. Why do you think the media so rarely plays up that Clinton can not realistically win now. Pennsylvania is irrelevant.

 

[Diablos]

If you put this in the first post I will love you forever:

 

[woeds]

I'm really starting to think that Clinton is losing her marbles here.

http://embeds.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/04/20/hillary-says-obamas-wrong-mccain-not-better-than-bush/

Hillary Says Obama’s Wrong — McCain Not Better than Bush

Hillary Clinton took aim today at Barack Obama’s assertion that anyone would be a better president than George Bush — including John McCain. In Johnstown, PA, Clinton said McCain is just more of the same — and the Democrats should be ready to fight him, not praise him.

“Senator Obama said today that John McCain would be better for the country than George Bush,” she said. “Senator McCain is a real American patriot who has served our country with distinction. But Senator McCain would follow the same failed policies that have been so wrong for our country in the last 7 years.”

Bashing McCain for wanting to keep troops in Iraq for 100 years and failing to come up with a plan to end the home foreclosure crisis, Clinton asked “is that better than George Bush?”

“We need a nominee who will take on John McCain, not cheer on John McCain, and I will be that nominee.”

“I think that since we now know Sen. McCain will be the nominee for the Republican Party, national security will be front and center in this election. We all know that. And I think it’s imperative that each of us be able to demonstrate we can cross the commander-in-chief threshold,” the New York senator told reporters crowded into an infant’s bedroom-sized hotel conference room in Washington.

“I believe that I’ve done that. Certainly, Sen. McCain has done that and you’ll have to ask Sen. Obama with respect to his candidacy,” she said.

Calling McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee a good friend and a “distinguished man with a great history of service to our country,” Clinton said, “Both of us will be on that stage having crossed that threshold.”

So according to Hillary, saying that McCain would at least be better than Bush is worse than saying he's certainly qualified.

 

[XxenobladerxX]

Even I can admit that McCain would be a better president than bush, and I'm a fucking democrat.

 

[GhaleonEB]

jeez why are you guys so paranoid? She's been expected to win this state for the last 3 months.

Just like Texas and Ohio, right?

 

[Elfforkusu]

Hillary 57-43 on the strength of ABC and cable news.

 

[maximum360]

12 points.

H - 56
O - 44

 

[schuelma]

Just like Texas and Ohio, right?

Big difference- In Texas virtually every poll up to the last few days had Obama winning. It was easy and somewhat reasonable for the media to expect an Obama victory. No one on Earth is seriously predicting an Obama victory on Tuesday.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Big difference- In Texas virtually every poll up to the last few days had Obama winning. It was easy and somewhat reasonable for the media to expect an Obama victory. No one on Earth is seriously predicting an Obama victory on Tuesday.

That's a bit of an exaggeration. Some showed him up, others down. They were essentially tied the weekend before, with Hillary polling slightly ahead. She won by three points.

Even a week earlier and Obama was well behind.

The media WILL paint this as a comeback for Hillary. It won't affect the next two states - which I think Obama will win - but that will be the coverage.

 

[gkryhewy]

My wife and I have each gotten four clinton robocalls this weekend. I think this strategy of pestering voters will hurt rather than help her.

A nice Obama TV spot is being aired a couple of times during this evening's sixers playoff game, which will get crazy ratings in philadelphia. Haven't seen it before - it's about hillary having taken more lobbyist $$ than any candidate, and now using that lobbyist $$ to pay for baseless 11th hour negative ads. Nice touch :lol

We live in Philadelphia.

Lots of "honk for hillary" assholes creating noise pollution this weekend. It was pleasant to see them scurry like roaches when it started raining.

 

[KilledByBill]

The media will backtrack on that as soon as it's over. Remember the media's ONLY priority is ratings, and this primary fight has been great for ratings. Why do you think the media so rarely plays up that Clinton can not realistically win now. Pennsylvania is irrelevant.

The media will also be feed plenty from the Clinton campaign when she wins it, the script is already being leaked out onto cable news. Howard Wolfson, Ed Rendell, and company have all been playing up that Obama's "outspending us 2-1 or 3-1 in advertising" "going all out to win it" and that will be the narrative. As long as Obama doesn't lose like in Ohio-esque fashion he should make it through alright. I'm expecting hours of news coverage about the exit polling questions: 'Are you bitter?' 'Is it unpatriotic not to wear a lapel flag pin?' ad nausium.

 

[GhaleonEB]

My wife and I have each gotten four clinton robocalls this weekend. I think this strategy of pestering voters will hurt rather than help her.

A nice Obama TV spot is being aired a couple of times during this evening's sixers playoff game, which will get crazy ratings in philadelphia. Haven't seen it before - it's about hillary having taken more lobbyist $$ than any candidate, and now using that lobbyist $$ to pay for baseless 11th hour negative ads. Nice touch :lol

We live in Philadelphia.

Lots of "honk for hillary" assholes creating noise pollution this weekend. It was pleasant to see them scurry like roaches when it started raining.

This one?

http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid1185304443/bctid1511781526

 

[XxenobladerxX]

Seriously,id bet my left ass cheek that hillary suffers a little back lash from all these negative,and misleading attacks.

 

[Cheebs]

Seriously,id bet my left ass cheek that hillary suffers a little back lash from all these negative,and misleading attacks.

Thats what gaf said about the 3 AM ad.

 

[XxenobladerxX]

Thats what gaf said about the 3 AM ad.

Hillary didn't air 24/7 attack ads in Texas or Ohio either.

 

[maynerd]

 

[Amir0x]

Not voting for Obama now

 

[Kitschkraft]

Hilldog - 58
Obama - 42

Bittergate is going to crush him here, unfortunately. Even though I would tend to agree with the comments, most people are still too stupid to critically think about what he was saying.

I'm at Pitt right now and I see all the students walking around with Obama shirts, thats the only thing keeping me cheerful about politics now....:lol

Oddly enough, it's finals week here, I wonder if he will lose some of us because of that.

 

[XxenobladerxX]

Hilldog - 58
Obama - 42

Bittergate is going to crush him here, unfortunately. Even though I would tend to agree with the comments, most people are still too stupid to critically think about what he was saying.

I'm at Pitt right now and I see all the students walking around with Obama shirts, thats the only thing keeping me cheerful about politics now....:lol

Oddly enough, it's finals week here, I wonder if he will lose some of us because of that.

Bittergate has had not hurt him at all in the polls.

 

[PhoenixDark]

That's a bit of an exaggeration. Some showed him up, others down. They were essentially tied the weekend before, with Hillary polling slightly ahead. She won by three points.

Even a week earlier and Obama was well behind.

The media WILL paint this as a comeback for Hillary. It won't affect the next two states - which I think Obama will win - but that will be the coverage.

What? Both Texas and Ohio were tossups on March 3rd, and when Clinton won both it was seen for what it was - a moral victory for her campaign, and a comeback from the previous 11 losses. Penn. is 100% different considering Hillary has been ahead there for three months, and her lead hasn't narrowed. I'm not buying any of these polls showing Obama within 5-7 points; they remind me a lot of the Ohio polls honestly. He's going to lose by double digits

 

[gkryhewy]

sixers win = obama win.

book it. :lol

 

[Kitschkraft]

Bittergate has had not hurt him at all in the polls.

Honestly, I do not believe the polls at all.

I know the people of this region, they are going to go in that booth and remember how that uppity black man called them out on being....pwt.

I just don't see it happening for him here. The people ARE bitter.

 

[gkryhewy]

I know the people of this region, they are going to go in that booth and remember how that uppity black man called them out on being....pwt

Most of those people are not registered DEM.

 

[PhoenixDark]

sixers win = obama win.

book it. :lol

The thought entered my head after watching that debacle. Fucking Pistons

 

[tanod]

Hillary 55
Obama 45

+/-2%

Hillary delegates < +10

 

[GhaleonEB]

What? Both Texas and Ohio were tossups on March 3rd, and when Clinton won both it was seen for what it was - a moral victory for her campaign, and a comeback from the previous 11 losses. Penn. is 100% different considering Hillary has been ahead there for three months, and her lead hasn't narrowed. I'm not buying any of these polls showing Obama within 5-7 points; they remind me a lot of the Ohio polls honestly. He's going to lose by double digits

Ohio

Pennsylvania

?

http://www.pollster.com/

 

[reilo]

Wait, if Hillary wins by 10%, all she'd gain is 10 delegates?

 

[PhoenixDark]

Ohio

Pennsylvania

?

http://www.pollster.com/

I'm not convinced the polls are telling what's going on in Penn. One poll has her up 4, another has her extending her lead. The point being that Ohio was a dead heat on March 3rd; it was seen as a flip of the coin, and of course the polls were all wrong. Here the polls are definitely wrong imo, but it's not a dead heat. The situations are not analogous, and I don't see the media billing it as a "comeback" unless she winds up with a 200,000 popular surplus or something.

 

[ToyMachine228]

Idk, I'm thinking Obama's big push there late last week and into this week is going to help. I think it's going to be close. It doesn't really matter anyway. Hillary's boned. She lost.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I'm not convinced the polls are telling what's going on in Penn. One poll has her up 4, another has her extending her lead. The point being that Ohio was a dead heat on March 3rd; it was seen as a flip of the coin, and of course the polls were all wrong. Here the polls are definitely wrong imo, but it's not a dead heat. The situations are not analogous, and I don't see the media billing it as a "comeback" unless she winds up with a 200,000 popular surplus or something.

No, it was NOT. That's my point. Look at the data:

http://www.pollster.com/08-OH-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

Of the polls done in the last week of polling, only one - Zogby (hi Cheebs!)- had it even tied. All the others had Hillary ahead - NONE showed Obama ahead. It was not a toss up. It's looking exactly like PA: Obama closed a 20 point gap to <10. Who knows where it's going to end up, but painting Ohio as a toss up is revisionist history.

PA is trending just like Ohio, though she got a last-minute boost there from the 3am and other negativity (as in Texas). I have a feeling this will be closer than Ohio, but we'll see. People are stupid.

 

[maximum360]

To the media's credit, they are consistent in their hypocrisy. They haven't been as vocal as before Ohio but I'm almost certain this PA will be OH redux.

 

[KilledByBill]

I'm not convinced the polls are telling what's going on in Penn. One poll has her up 4, another has her extending her lead. The point being that Ohio was a dead heat on March 3rd; it was seen as a flip of the coin, and of course the polls were all wrong. Here the polls are definitely wrong imo, but it's not a dead heat. The situations are not analogous, and I don't see the media billing it as a "comeback" unless she winds up with a 200,000 popular surplus or something.

I get what you're saying but I don't think Ohio was considered a coin-flip, Texas yes but not Ohio. Right up until the big day polls showed her up 5-7% at least. It's water under the bridge at this point though. In states like Ohio (and soon to be PA) Clinton has typically outperformed the polls and Penn just seems like the perfect pairing of favorable demographics and institutional support for Hillary.

 

[PhoenixDark]

No, it was NOT. That's my point. Look at the data:

http://www.pollster.com/08-OH-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

Of the polls done in the last week of polling, only one - Zogby (hi Cheebs!)- had it even tied. All the others had Hillary ahead - NONE showed Obama ahead. It was not a toss up. It's looking exactly like PA: Obama closed a 20 point gap to <10. Who knows where it's going to end up, but painting Ohio as a toss up is revisionist history.

PA is trending just like Ohio, though she got a last-minute boost there from the 3am and other negativity (as in Texas). I have a feeling this will be closer than Ohio, but we'll see. People are stupid.

You're right, I'll admit with respect to Ohio numbers. I would still argue that considering Hillary has been ahead in Penn. for three months (and will win by 10 points or more) this isn't analogous to Ohio/Texas, victories for Clinton that came after a string of consecutive losses.

 

[tanod]

Don't forget that HRC has the entire state organization capabilities under lock and key (every significant state politician is a HRC supporter + she's doing those political organizer bribes payouts for their costs while Obama is not.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Don't forget that HRC has the entire state organization capabilities under lock and key + doing those political organizer bribes payouts for their costs.

Has she been handing out "steet money" (aka bribes)? I read that she wasn't, but simply because her campaign couldn't afford it. I think it was First Read that mentioned it, but it was a week or so ago so I don't recall.