Deus Ex Machina
Member
Barack Obama at a campaign stop today at Reading High School, Reading, PA
:lolCheebs said:Zogby's daily tracking poll had Clintons lead go from +3 to +6 today...
And remember Zogby is considered inaccurate because it ALWAYS over-represents Obama in states he loses...not under represent...
kkaabboomm said:my PA prediction
Clinton - 55.5
Obama - 44.5
at an 11% difference. still double digits, no blow out. it'll be "on the line" and the media will say she won, but was it big enough.
popular vote differential, despite it actually not meaning anything, will be probably around 180-220K.
Delegate wise, she'll pull out between +10 to +15 delegates.
those are my predictions, and im sticking with them
DrForester said:Even if Hillary wins by 1% the media will proclaim it a massive comeback victory. They want this to go on till June or beyond and they will report it as a massive victory because it will help Clinton, which in turns helps this primary go on.
When have they ever under-predicted an Obama margin in a state Obama didnt have a blowout victory in?Deus Ex Machina said:Zogby's record is poor
PhoenixDark said:jeez why are you guys so paranoid? She's been expected to win this state for the last 3 months.
DrForester said:Paranoid? I'm probably voting McCain, I just want Obama to win because if McCain looses, he's the person I'd rather have. And anyone who has watched any media coverage of this primary knows that event he smallest of victory's by Clinton will be seen as a massive comeback, regardless of her being expected to win it for months..
schuelma said:I respectfully disagree. Big difference in the media narrative before this primary as opposed to before Texas/Ohio- before those primaries, the media said Obama had to win one of them and indeed polls showed him ahead in Texas right before the primary.
PA by contrast has been seen as a Hillary 10-15 point win for months and there has been plenty of talk in the media that anything under a 10 point victory is a loss.
Hillary Clinton took aim today at Barack Obamas assertion that anyone would be a better president than George Bush including John McCain. In Johnstown, PA, Clinton said McCain is just more of the same and the Democrats should be ready to fight him, not praise him.
Senator Obama said today that John McCain would be better for the country than George Bush, she said. Senator McCain is a real American patriot who has served our country with distinction. But Senator McCain would follow the same failed policies that have been so wrong for our country in the last 7 years.
Bashing McCain for wanting to keep troops in Iraq for 100 years and failing to come up with a plan to end the home foreclosure crisis, Clinton asked is that better than George Bush?
We need a nominee who will take on John McCain, not cheer on John McCain, and I will be that nominee.
I think that since we now know Sen. McCain will be the nominee for the Republican Party, national security will be front and center in this election. We all know that. And I think its imperative that each of us be able to demonstrate we can cross the commander-in-chief threshold, the New York senator told reporters crowded into an infants bedroom-sized hotel conference room in Washington.
I believe that Ive done that. Certainly, Sen. McCain has done that and youll have to ask Sen. Obama with respect to his candidacy, she said.
Calling McCain, the presumptive GOP nominee a good friend and a distinguished man with a great history of service to our country, Clinton said, Both of us will be on that stage having crossed that threshold.
Just like Texas and Ohio, right?PhoenixDark said:jeez why are you guys so paranoid? She's been expected to win this state for the last 3 months.
GhaleonEB said:Just like Texas and Ohio, right?
That's a bit of an exaggeration. Some showed him up, others down. They were essentially tied the weekend before, with Hillary polling slightly ahead. She won by three points.schuelma said:Big difference- In Texas virtually every poll up to the last few days had Obama winning. It was easy and somewhat reasonable for the media to expect an Obama victory. No one on Earth is seriously predicting an Obama victory on Tuesday.
DrForester said:The media will backtrack on that as soon as it's over. Remember the media's ONLY priority is ratings, and this primary fight has been great for ratings. Why do you think the media so rarely plays up that Clinton can not realistically win now. Pennsylvania is irrelevant.
gkrykewy said:My wife and I have each gotten four clinton robocalls this weekend. I think this strategy of pestering voters will hurt rather than help her.
A nice Obama TV spot is being aired a couple of times during this evening's sixers playoff game, which will get crazy ratings in philadelphia. Haven't seen it before - it's about hillary having taken more lobbyist $$ than any candidate, and now using that lobbyist $$ to pay for baseless 11th hour negative ads. Nice touch :lol
We live in Philadelphia.
Lots of "honk for hillary" assholes creating noise pollution this weekend. It was pleasant to see them scurry like roaches when it started raining.
Thats what gaf said about the 3 AM ad.XxenobladerxX said:Seriously,id bet my left ass cheek that hillary suffers a little back lash from all these negative,and misleading attacks.
Hillary didn't air 24/7 attack ads in Texas or Ohio either.Cheebs said:Thats what gaf said about the 3 AM ad.
Bittergate has had not hurt him at all in the polls.Liara T'Soni said:Hilldog - 58
Obama - 42
Bittergate is going to crush him here, unfortunately. Even though I would tend to agree with the comments, most people are still too stupid to critically think about what he was saying.
I'm at Pitt right now and I see all the students walking around with Obama shirts, thats the only thing keeping me cheerful about politics now....:lol
Oddly enough, it's finals week here, I wonder if he will lose some of us because of that.
GhaleonEB said:That's a bit of an exaggeration. Some showed him up, others down. They were essentially tied the weekend before, with Hillary polling slightly ahead. She won by three points.
Even a week earlier and Obama was well behind.
The media WILL paint this as a comeback for Hillary. It won't affect the next two states - which I think Obama will win - but that will be the coverage.
XxenobladerxX said:Bittergate has had not hurt him at all in the polls.
Liara T'Soni said:I know the people of this region, they are going to go in that booth and remember how that uppity black man called them out on being....pwt
gkrykewy said:sixers win = obama win.
book it. :lol
PhoenixDark said:What? Both Texas and Ohio were tossups on March 3rd, and when Clinton won both it was seen for what it was - a moral victory for her campaign, and a comeback from the previous 11 losses. Penn. is 100% different considering Hillary has been ahead there for three months, and her lead hasn't narrowed. I'm not buying any of these polls showing Obama within 5-7 points; they remind me a lot of the Ohio polls honestly. He's going to lose by double digits
GhaleonEB said:
No, it was NOT. That's my point. Look at the data:PhoenixDark said:I'm not convinced the polls are telling what's going on in Penn. One poll has her up 4, another has her extending her lead. The point being that Ohio was a dead heat on March 3rd; it was seen as a flip of the coin, and of course the polls were all wrong. Here the polls are definitely wrong imo, but it's not a dead heat. The situations are not analogous, and I don't see the media billing it as a "comeback" unless she winds up with a 200,000 popular surplus or something.
PhoenixDark said:I'm not convinced the polls are telling what's going on in Penn. One poll has her up 4, another has her extending her lead. The point being that Ohio was a dead heat on March 3rd; it was seen as a flip of the coin, and of course the polls were all wrong. Here the polls are definitely wrong imo, but it's not a dead heat. The situations are not analogous, and I don't see the media billing it as a "comeback" unless she winds up with a 200,000 popular surplus or something.
GhaleonEB said:No, it was NOT. That's my point. Look at the data:
http://www.pollster.com/08-OH-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
Of the polls done in the last week of polling, only one - Zogby (hi Cheebs!)- had it even tied. All the others had Hillary ahead - NONE showed Obama ahead. It was not a toss up. It's looking exactly like PA: Obama closed a 20 point gap to <10. Who knows where it's going to end up, but painting Ohio as a toss up is revisionist history.
PA is trending just like Ohio, though she got a last-minute boost there from the 3am and other negativity (as in Texas). I have a feeling this will be closer than Ohio, but we'll see. People are stupid.
Has she been handing out "steet money" (aka bribes)? I read that she wasn't, but simply because her campaign couldn't afford it. I think it was First Read that mentioned it, but it was a week or so ago so I don't recall.tanod said:Don't forget that HRC has the entire state organization capabilities under lock and key + doing those political organizerbribespayouts for their costs.