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PoliGAF Official April 22nd Primary Thread (Democrat Apocalypse)

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3

3rdman

Member
10 or less and it's going to be hard to continue...Don't know how tomorrow will pan out but I'm liking the polling I'm seeing. We'll see...
 
F

Farmboy

Member
Hope: he can keep it within 10. Believe: it'll be ~12 point loss.

If he does keep it within 10, the media narrative might (might) be that Obama wasn't as badly hurt by Bitter/lapel/Ayersgate as they thought. If he loses by 15 or more, the media might go crazy, claiming the scandals have all but sunk him.

As Rur0ni indicated in the first post, it's kind of exhasperating, knowing Hillary can't possibly win the nomination but also knowing that she'll win tuesday and thus drag this thing out even longer. Here's hoping the Indiana/NC scenario Ami mentioned plays out... I've thought for a while now that it could be the deathknell.

EDIT: FiveThirtyEight has some interesting analysis of the polls.
 
B

BenjaminBirdie

Banned
tanod said:
I like how the MSM blew up the Newsweek poll that had Obama up 19 all weekend and waited until Monday to talk about how the streams crossed in the Gallup poll.
Click to expand...

Like I said, pretty unwatchable. They've even got my man Chuck Todd under the contract.
 
Q

Qwerty710710

a child left behind
I hope Obama could stay around 10 points in PA, it'll be tough. But I think Philly metro could save him, most of Central PA is republican country.
 
T

tanod

when is my burrito
Here's a good point that I heard over the weekend about the polling in PA. The polls are of likely voters so the pool of people who are surveyed do not include any of the newly registered voters since by statistical standards, they're not "likely" to vote.

I think that whatever gains Obama has made with all of the newly registered voters not reflected in the polls is probably balanced out with HRC's organizational advantage. So, in all likelihood, the polls stay pretty accurate considering those two factors.


Another point: I live in Iowa and if all of the elected officials had coalesced around Clinton like they have in PA, he wouldn't have had a chance. I think a lot of party activists take the endorsements of their legislators/governor pretty seriously.
 
A

APF

Member
Marbles... of hope.

NYTimes said:
Trailing in Pennsylvania, Obama Sharpens Tone

READING, Pa. — Senator Barack Obama sharpened his tone against Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton on Sunday as the six-week Pennsylvania primary contest raced to a close, with the rivals marshaling extensive resources in a battle for undecided voters and delegates that could determine whether the Democratic nominating fight carries on.

In television commercials and in appearances before crowded rallies, Mr. Obama, of Illinois, cast his opponent in one of the most negative lights of the entire 16-month campaign, calling her a compromised Washington insider. Mrs. Clinton, of New York, responded by suggesting that Mr. Obama’s message of hope had given way to old-style politics and asked Democrats to take a harder look at him.

[...]

Mr. Obama, seeking to lock up the nomination, was outspending Mrs. Clinton two-to-one on television advertising in the state, with a barrage of commercials assailing her health care plan and suggesting that she was captive to special interests. Mrs. Clinton fired back on Sunday, criticizing his health care plan and saying he was going negative to mask his poor performance in last week’s debate.

[...]

At a campaign stop in Bethlehem on Sunday, Mrs. Clinton reminded voters about last week’s Democratic debate, in which Mr. Obama was repeatedly on the defensive about recent gaffes and incendiary remarks made by his former pastor. “It’s no wonder my opponent has been so negative these last few days of this campaign,” she said, “because I think you saw the difference between us.”

[...]

The intensity of Mr. Obama’s campaign and his willingness to air negative attacks in recent days suggest he harbored hope of ending the Clinton campaign here or avoiding a major loss that would keep the race alive.

[...]

In a new advertisement Sunday, Mr. Obama accused the Clinton campaign of employing “11th hour smears” [ed's note: lol hypocrisy] [...]

In the final days of the campaign, Mrs. Clinton concentrated on the state’s working-class industrial regions, where she hoped to drive up her support among older, blue-collar voters who are concerned broadly about their economic condition and national security. These voters have proved the most elusive for Mr. Obama, which has led some to question whether he can win their support against Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee.

Her chief message — captured by an appearance in front of a fire house in suburban West Chester, where she gave a grim assessment of the dangers facing the country — was that she is tough enough to be commander in chief and to take on Mr. McCain, and that Mr. Obama is not.

She has also spent considerable time in the populous Philadelphia suburbs, trying to break through to upscale women, whose gender might lead them to support her but whose class, as measured by income and education, might tilt them toward Mr. Obama. About 40 percent of the state’s Democratic voters live within the Philadelphia media market.

Mrs. Clinton has employed more of an endorsement strategy and boasts the backing of 100 mayors in the state, including those in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Bill Clinton and their daughter, Chelsea, are each holding four or five events a day. And a “Women for Hillary” operation is rotating around the suburbs.

Neil Oxman, a media consultant here, estimated that by the end of the six-week campaign, Mr. Obama will have spent more than $9 million on television and Mrs. Clinton will have spent almost $4 million.

Counting what they are spending on direct mail and other get-out-the-vote efforts, he estimates they will have spent $20 million by Tuesday, making this by far the most expensive presidential primary in state history.
Click to expand...

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/us/politics/21dems.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin
 
A

APF

Member
Now, with Obama being endorsed by Hamas, are you folks really trying to taint HRC with this Richard Mellon-Scaife endorsement? Isn't Obama supposedly the candidate who will sit down with his enemies--including Republicans--and isn't being loved by (R)s one of his selling points going into the GE ("Obama Republicans")? Yet for some base hypocritical reason you're going down this desperate route of attack?

http://www.republicansforobama.org/


And with Barack's history, are people really trying to make political hay of what HRC may have done in years ago, trying to say that once you do something as a youth, that action defines you for the rest of your life? Really? These lines of attack are legitimate now?
 
T

tanod

when is my burrito
soul creator said:
read the rest of the sentence :p
Click to expand...

I did. Here's the thing:

He's never been the favorite to win and he's never been ahead by any reasonable measure in PA. He may have been trending upward since he started campaigning there but that analysis seems kind of ridiculous.
 
G

gkryhewy

Member
APF said:
Now, with Obama being endorsed by Hamas, are you folks really trying to taint HRC with this Richard Mellon-Scaife endorsement? Isn't Obama supposedly the candidate who will sit down with his enemies--including Republicans--and isn't being loved by (R)s one of his selling points going into the GE ("Obama Republicans")? Yet for some base hypocritical reason you're going down this desperate route of attack?
Click to expand...

Yes, this is exactly what all the posts I'm seeing this morning are talking about. Going on and on in this page alone about the newspaper endorsement. Thank jebus you're here to keep it real.

You are the king of strawmen. Why exactly I don't have you on ignore yet, I'm not sure.
 
L

Lefty42o

Banned
APF said:
Now, with Obama being endorsed by Hamas, are you folks really trying to taint HRC with this Richard Mellon-Scaife endorsement? Isn't Obama supposedly the candidate who will sit down with his enemies--including Republicans--and isn't being loved by (R)s one of his selling points going into the GE ("Obama Republicans")? Yet for some base hypocritical reason you're going down this desperate route of attack?

http://www.republicansforobama.org/


And with Barack's history, are people really trying to make political hay of what HRC may have done in years ago, trying to say that once you do something as a youth, that action defines you for the rest of your life? Really? These lines of attack are legitimate now?
Click to expand...


what the fuck are you rambling on about.
 
S

syllogism

Member
APF said:
Now, with Obama being endorsed by Hamas, are you folks really trying to taint HRC with this Richard Mellon-Scaife endorsement? Isn't Obama supposedly the candidate who will sit down with his enemies--including Republicans--and isn't being loved by (R)s one of his selling points going into the GE ("Obama Republicans")? Yet for some base hypocritical reason you're going down this desperate route of attack?

http://www.republicansforobama.org/


And with Barack's history, are people really trying to make political hay of what HRC may have done in years ago, trying to say that once you do something as a youth, that action defines you for the rest of your life? Really? These lines of attack are legitimate now?
Click to expand...
Hamas endorsed Hillary too!

http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=58699
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
Lefty420 is the good peoples' Champion of Justice and our best combatant against the evil APF and his demented minions. Keep fighting the good fight!


aka let the crazies duke it out and the rest of us can talk about news and not this nonstop bullshit bickering.
 
S

soul creator

Member
tanod said:
I did. Here's the thing:

He's never been the favorite to win and he's never been ahead by any reasonable measure in PA. He may have been trending upward since he started campaigning there but that analysis seems kind of ridiculous.
Click to expand...

er:

to secure the Democratic presidential nomination
Click to expand...

seems like they're referring to the entire nomination when they say he's now the favorite, not PA
 
S

scorcho

testicles on a cold fall morning
this is why Democrats need to unify behind a single candidate and start countering McCain. now.

Disappointingly, Sen. John McCain, presumptive Republican candidate for president, so far declines to back the measure. He seems to be responding to concerns of the military brass that enhanced educational opportunities could negatively affect retention rates.
Click to expand...
let's keep our troops around by offering them little alternative! yeah!
 
S

scorcho

testicles on a cold fall morning
APF said:
Why shouldn't your "side"'s hypocritical garbage not be challenged?
Click to expand...
feel free to challenge, but comparing the 'endorsement' of a foreign entity like Hamas to Richard Mellon-Scaife is just as disingenuous as the shit pro-Obama fanatics in this thread sprout.
 
A

APF

Member
Sometimes truth wakes-up early, my friend.

Especially when truth isn't up at 1am reading this forum, but saw those ridiculous attacks when truth sat down with his morning cup of coffee.


scorcho: I don't see how you can say it's disingenuous?
 
L

Lefty42o

Banned
The Lamonster said:
Lefty420 is the good peoples' Champion of Justice and our best combatant against the evil APF and his demented minions. Keep fighting the good fight!


aka let the crazies duke it out and the rest of us can talk about news and not this nonstop bullshit bickering.
Click to expand...

:lol

APF said:
Sometimes truth wakes-up early, my friend.

Especially when truth isn't up at 1am reading this forum, but saw those ridiculous attacks when truth sat down with his morning cup of coffee.
Click to expand...

no you could have just let it go and moved on to something else. but instead you drum up a convo that happned hrs ago. next you do it first thing in the morning on a fucking monday.

jesus give us some time to adjust to the new week before we have to sort thru your shit.
 
D

Deus Ex Machina

Member
Michael Smerconish predicts an Obama win by 2/3 just now on MSNBC. Breaking...no link yet.

Pat Buchanan and Joe didn't like that one.

I think Obama will pull this off but it will be a squeaker.
 
RubxQub

RubxQub

φίλω ἐξεχέγλουτον καί ψευδολόγον οὖκ εἰπόν
Deus Ex Machina said:
Michael Smerconish predicts an Obama win by 2/3 just now on MSNBC. Breaking...no link yet.

Pat Buchanan and Joe didn't like that one.

I think Obama will pull this off but it will be a squeaker.
Click to expand...
I refuse to let myself buy into this.

I just don't see anyway that he could pull off a win in PA. If he does, it will surely be the nail in the coffin for Hillary.
 
A

APF

Member
scorcho said:
because i can't possibly see how you're being serious with such a comparison
Click to expand...
I'm saying neither endorsement is a valid reason to attack the candidate--especially if used to imply that candidate is somehow a "traitor" or sleeping with the enemies. If I used local asshats like Farrakhan, would that have been less "disingenuous?" Locality has little to do with understanding the meaning of my point.
 
L

Lefty42o

Banned
APF said:
I'm saying neither endorsement is a valid reason to attack the candidate. If I used local asshats like Farrakhan, would that have been less "disingenuous?" Locality has little to do with understanding the meaning of my point.
Click to expand...

you have no point apf. thats the fucking point
 
3

3rdman

Member
Deus Ex Machina said:
Michael Smerconish predicts an Obama win by 2/3 just now on MSNBC. Breaking...no link yet.

Pat Buchanan and Joe didn't like that one.

I think Obama will pull this off but it will be a squeaker.
Click to expand...
It sounds like they're changing the narrative so that tomorrow they can talk about the "big comeback" by HRC.

She's going to win tomorrow...the only questions is by how much.
 
L

Lefty42o

Banned
APF said:
Lefty42o: contribute or STFU.
Click to expand...

:lol

its hard to when you totally derail the thread over bs from last night.

see thats my point

and on a monday morning when later today thru the rest of this week this thread will be a shit fest give it a break for a lil bit. is it that fucking hard?
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
siamesedreamer said:
Remember the Chuck Todd +4 in any poll for Clinton.
Click to expand...
I love Chuck Todd because he tends to bring things back to reality. I saw him on NBC today basically saying "Obama could win, but he most likely won't." This killed some of my hope but I am now less set up for disappointment tomorrow night.



oh and thank you mods for great justice!
 
K

KRS7

Member
RubxQub said:
I refuse to let myself buy into this.

I just don't see anyway that he could pull off a win in PA. If he does, it will surely be the nail in the coffin for Hillary.
Click to expand...

Same here. There is no real way I can see Obama winning. He has had a terrible month. While he has handled it as best he can, he also has a 20pt deficit to make up. In addition, most of the democratic establishment in Pennsylvania are fervent Hillary supporters, and will use there ground machines to help her win. After all this, I will be ecstatic if he comes in less than 10 points behind.
 
L

Lefty42o

Banned
The Lamonster said:
I love Chuck Todd because he tends to bring things back to reality. I saw him on NBC today basically saying "Obama could win, but he most likely won't." This killed some of my hope but I am now less set up for disappointment tomorrow night.



oh and thank you mods for great justice!
Click to expand...

APF
Banned
(Today, 09:57 AM)
Reply | Quote

oh damn. guess i better chill before i spend another month reading.
 
S

sprsk

force push the doodoo rock
Eh, he probably won't win PA. I doubt all the polls are wrong.

Though, surely crazier things have happened.
dewey_defeats_truman1.jpg
 
L

Lefty42o

Banned
KRS7 said:
Same here. There is no real way I can see Obama winning. He has had a terrible month. While he has handled it as best he can, he also has a 20pt deficit to make up. In addition, most of the democratic establishment in Pennsylvania are fervent Hillary supporters, and will use there ground machines to help her win. After all this, I will be ecstatic if he comes in less than 10 points behind.
Click to expand...

yeah i think realisticly he will keep it in signle digits but this is a state made for her.
 
S

scorcho

testicles on a cold fall morning
locality matters little, and i agree it's stupid to attack either candidate on these 'endorsements'. then again, even the counter comparison of Hamas and Farrakhan to Mellon-Scaife is stupid, making this whole exercise moot.

aw hell. now he's banned? i'd rather APF waste his time countering Lefty than myself.
 
L

Lefty42o

Banned
syllogism said:
APF was completely right about Mellon-Scaife, though the rather tenuous Hamas endorsement was a weak comparison.
Click to expand...

right or wrong that wasn't the issue.

he drummed up a argument from last night for no good reason other than to bitch. i found that upsetting this early on a Monday.

man this thread is going to suck later. :lol
 
RubxQub

RubxQub

φίλω ἐξεχέγλουτον καί ψευδολόγον οὖκ εἰπόν
Lefty42o said:
man this thread is going to suck later. :lol
Click to expand...
I think the main difference isn't going to be us melting down over the loss, it'll be us melting down over the media's portrayal of this monumental victory from Hillary.
 
G

gkryhewy

Member
RubxQub said:
I think the main difference isn't going to be us melting down over the loss, it'll be us melting down over the media's portrayal of this monumental victory from Hillary.
Click to expand...

You're the only one who keeps mentioning this, so I have a feeling you will be pleasantly surprised tomorrow. The narrative has been that she will need a BIG victory, even in the MSM.
 
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