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March 2011 NPD Article (Gamasutra)

J

jvm

Gamasutra.
Despite the changing rules, I managed to put together another article, this time on March 2011 results reported by the NPD Group. As usual, Gamasutra has agreed to publish it:
Direct link to Gamasutra story about March 2011 NPD Group estimates.
Some stuff folks might be interested in:
  • Killzone 3 at 500K, Super Street Fighter IV 3D Edition at 100K, Dance Central at 1.5 million, and Just Dance 2 at ... 4.4 million.
  • Hardware ASPs: $318 for PS3, $287 for Xbox 360, NDS at $156. Not in the article, but just for you guys: PSP at $133.
  • Discussion of 3DS sales, with historical comparisons.
  • Updated tie ratios: Xbox 360 at 8.9, PS3 at 7.8, Wii at 7.2.
One image from the article:
software-breakdown-march-2007-2011.png

I'll be around some of day, so when you find mistakes, please let me know. I'll try to answer questions too, if there's something you think I got wrong or that would be worth chatting about.

As always, I'm up for corrections, comments, etc. Please don't take a lack of immediate response personally -- I may simply not be here. My overlordseditors will probably be watching the thread, so changes may happen without a direct response from me.

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
2007: Oct Nov Dec
2008: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2011: Jan Feb
 
StevePharma said:
Great job as always jvm. Thanks for sharing. Obligatory holy fuck @ Just Dance
Click to expand...
Yeah. I'll admit, I didn't believe it at first. But when I re-checked all the charts, I realized that JD2 did at least 2.5 million in 2010 and then appears to have had about 500K each month this year. A little extra here or there, and you're up to 4.4 million. Guh.
 
jvm said:
Yeah. I'll admit, I didn't believe it at first. But when I re-checked all the charts, I realized that JD2 did at least 2.5 million in 2010 and then appears to have had about 500K each month this year. A little extra here or there, and you're up to 4.4 million. Guh.
Click to expand...

Which makes me wonder how well Michael Jackson The Experience will do eventually. Ubisoft is booming that market now
 
Also, while I was doing background this month, I ran across an old PR from the NPD Group from just after the launch of the Game Boy Advance. It describes some info about 1H 2001 sales.

The thing I thought was interesting was that the GBA launched in June 2001 and Super Mario Advance launched to the #5 spot for the first half of the year after just a couple of weeks of sales. While it doesn't have a units figure with it, I think the hardware sales for the first month were above 800K. Just goes to show how a new Nintendo handheld with a Mario game could do at launch, perhaps.

Here's the PR:
NPD Reports U.S. Video Game Industry Continues to Show Substantial Growth in First Half 2001

PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y., July 26, 2001

Retail sales of U.S. video game hardware, software and accessories increased 28% during the first half of 2001 (January-June), compared to the same time last year, according to leading marketing information provider, The NPD Group, Inc. Unit sales of video game hardware, software and accessories also rose
11% during the first half of 2001 vs. first half 2000. "The sales boost in the first six months of the year is great news for the video game industry considering video game sales for annual 2000 were down for the first time since 1997," said Richard Ow, account executive, NPD Interactive Entertainment. "We anticipate 2001 to be a very profitable year for the video game industry. This is especially true since 50% or more of the sales usually come during the fourth quarter. Even more importantly, two highly anticipated systems, GameCube and Xbox, will debut this November, " Ow added.

According to NPD, the continued sales growth was driven by many factors. These included the hardware sales of Sony PlayStation 2, the launch of Game Boy Advance and decreased price points of the Sega
Dreamcast.

Code: 
U.S. Video Game Industry Dollar and Unit Percent Changes
January - June 2001 vs. January - June 2000
Categories                       Dollar % Change       Unit % Change
TOTAL                                   28%                  11%
Consoles                               180%                  66%
32/64 Bit Console Software             -33%                 -22%
32/64 Bit Console Accessories          -25%                 -22%
Next Gen Console Software              237%                 279%
Next Gen Console Accessories           294%                 262%
Portable Video Hardware                 17%                   6%
Portable Video Software                 21%                  18%
Portable Video Accessories              31%                  44%
Source: NPD Interactive Entertainment Service
Ow adds, "While PS2 and Game Boy Advance software is flying off the shelves, the older generation of software from the PlayStation, Nintendo 64 and Game Boy Color systems still comprise almost 75% of the year-to-date sales. The new systems will need consistent injections of high-quality, jaw-dropping games with unique content to drive sales of the newer, more expensive hardware systems. Super Mario Advance and Gran Turismo 3 A-Spec are two examples of unique first party software that are major drivers of hardware sales."

Code: 
Top 10 Video Game Titles Ranked on Units Sold

     January - June 2001
Rank     Platform/Title                Publisher          Intro. Date

1       N64: Pokemon               Nintendo of America   March 2001
        Stadium 2
2      GBC: Pokemon Silver        Nintendo of America   October 2000
3      GBC: Pokemon Gold          Nintendo of America   October 2000
4      PS2: Madden NFL 2001       Electronic Arts       October 2000
5      GBA: Super Mario Advance   Nintendo of America   June 2001
6      PSX: Gran Turismo 2        Sony Computer         December 1999
                                   Entertainment
7      PS2: NBA Live 2001         Electronic Arts       January 2001
8      N64 Paper Mario            Nintendo of America   February 2001
9      PS2: Onimusha              Capcom USA            March 2001
        Warlords
10     PSX: Tony Hawks            Activision            September 2000
        Pro Skater 2
Source: NPD Interactive Entertainment Service
Click to expand...
 
I am eagerly waiting for Ubisoft earnings. Those guys' market share has probably gone through the roof this Q4+Q1.
 
jvm said:
Also, while I was doing background this month, I ran across an old PR from the NPD Group from just after the launch of the Game Boy Advance. It describes some info about 1H 2001 sales.

The thing I thought was interesting was that the GBA launched in June 2001 and Super Mario Advance launched to the #5 spot for the first half of the year after just a couple of weeks of sales. While it doesn't have a units figure with it, I think the hardware sales for the first month were above 800K. Just goes to show how a new Nintendo handheld with a Mario game could do at launch, perhaps.

Here's the PR:
Click to expand...
10 years later and Pokemon should still have the top 2 spots in the first half of the year. Interesting.
 
jvm said:
The thing I thought was interesting was that the GBA launched in June 2001 and Super Mario Advance launched to the #5 spot for the first half of the year after just a couple of weeks of sales. While it doesn't have a units figure with it, I think the hardware sales for the first month were above 800K. Just goes to show how a new Nintendo handheld with a Mario game could do at launch, perhaps.
Click to expand...
870K
 
EagleEyes said:
Dance Central and Kinect Sports have proven to be great exclusives for the 360.
Click to expand...
I will be extremely surprised if Dance Central 2 isnt on Wii and PS3 when it's out.

Great article JVM, really puts those 3DS numbers in perspective. Makes sense with the PS3 price this year...kinda thought we'd see at least $50 off this year.
 
I don't follow it but what console is just dance on? And who made it? Ubisoft

Super hit.


My dance central should be on its way to me :)

+

As always, many thanks to the NPD Group for its monthly release of the video game industry data,
Click to expand...

The NPD threads are just about dead already....


+

I'm intrigued by the MJ dance game now. But I think it sucks no? What with the karoake element to it.
 
Nice work jvm, as always.

There is a missing word on the page 3. "That game has just been released on the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3, and it is likely to many additional units on those platforms." is likely to collect, probably?
 
WrikaWrek said:
Hmm.

That's pretty damn weak performance then.
Click to expand...
I really think the beta turned people off. Not to mention the first was a mixed bag.

Hope they stick a fork in that franchise and move on.
 
WrikaWrek said:
360 tie ratio is amazing.

A question though, are the KZ3 numbers overall or for the month?
Click to expand...
Less than 2 games more on average than the 'casual' Wii owning audience, even after been on the market for an extra year?
 
poppabk said:
Less than 2 games more on average than the 'casual' Wii owning audience, even after been on the market for an extra year?
Click to expand...
You may think that's nothing but 2-3 extra $50 games is big business in the grand scheme of things.
 
LQX said:
You may think that's nothing but 2-3 extra $50 games is big business in the grand scheme of things.
Click to expand...
I am just saying that it is not that 'amazing' considering that people refer to it as a software monster whereas most Wii's are supposedly sat in closets gathering dust.
 
From jvm's article
it appears that the PlayStation 3 saw its sales increase by roughly 5-10 percent in the first quarter of 2011 compared to the same period in 2010.
Click to expand...

Last year first quarter PS3 total = 950.9k
950.9*1.05 = 998.4, 950.9*1.1 = 1046k

Jan+Feb 2011 PS3 total = 670k
Mar PS3 = 328.4k to 376k
 
poppabk said:
Less than 2 games more on average than the 'casual' Wii owning audience, even after been on the market for an extra year?
Click to expand...

That's irrelevant as we are talking about software tie ratio in relation to the amount of hardware install base as opposed to the hardware's duration on the market.

Point is, the 360 software tie ratio is impressive considering the amount of hardware on ground.
 
Pachter is predicting 450,000-500,000 for 3DS in April.

Sheesh. Back to his old ways I see. Guy can't predict anything that needs actual analysis and thoughtful projections.
 
scently said:
That's irrelevant as we are talking about software tie ratio in relation to the amount of hardware install base as opposed to the hardware's duration on the market.

Point is, the 360 software tie ratio is impressive considering the amount of hardware on ground.
Click to expand...
No, because every purchaser who bought a 360 at launch has had an extra year to buy games so time on market does effect tie ratio. As is pointed out in the article the recent drop in sales of the Wii hardware have allowed its tie ratio to rapidly increase, while the increase in 360 sales are holding the tie ratio steady. Basically tie ratio is a pretty bad metric, as a 'good' value often represents poor performance of hardware more than good performance of software.
 
1-D_FTW said:
Pachter is predicting 450,000-500,000 for 3DS in April.

Sheesh. Back to his old ways I see. Guy can't predict anything that needs actual analysis and thoughtful projections.
Click to expand...

400K could be reasonable (flat) so I do not think the prediction is unreasonable, assuming word of mouth is selling the system. 300K just seems rather low (I dont think the writer justified why they were being pessimisticwhile Mr. Pachter noted the game choices, etc).
 
EagleEyes said:
Dance Central and Kinect Sports have proven to be great exclusives for the 360.
Click to expand...

I was thinking the exact opposite for Dance Central. It's done fine, but I thought of it a bit like Rock Band 1: Rock Band 1 did fine, but they totally botched the biggest market for this type of game, the Wii, as readily shown by Guitar Hero.

Guitar Hero maintained its dominance over Rock Band at the height of the genre's popularity thanks to proper Wii support -- the Wii was the largest market for those types of games -- and now, once again, Dance Central is being hugely dominated by a game in the same genre that chose the Wii as its primary platform (Just Dance).

This doesn't mean Dance Central has done poorly, or that all games should be ported to the Wii: rather, Harmonix happens to be a company that makes games that are particularly suited to the Wii audience, and their continued negligence in this regard certainly doesn't help their already precarious financial situation.
 
Opiate said:
I was thinking the exact opposite for Dance Central. It's done fine, but I thought of it a bit like Rock Band 1: Rock Band 1 did fine, but they totally botched the biggest market for this type of game, the Wii, as readily shown by Guitar Hero.

Guitar Hero maintained its dominance over Rock Band at the height of the genre's popularity thanks to proper Wii support -- the Wii was the largest market for those types of games -- and now, once again, Dance Central is being hugely dominated by a game in the same genre that chose the Wii as its primary platform (Just Dance).

This doesn't mean Dance Central has done poorly, or that all games should be ported to the Wii: rather, Harmonix happens to be a company that makes games that are particularly suited to the Wii audience, and their continued negligence in this regard certainly doesn't help their already precarious financial situation.
Click to expand...

It is a pretty fascinating situation. To me it seems a classic case of misunderstanding the audience. They figure that the consumers are going to care about paying for DLC tracks and such and access to a fully-featured RBN, but most don't. Most are happy with the content on the disc and only bring it out at parties anyway.

Anyway, an interesting situation to be sure.
 
Jonsoncao said:
From jvm's article


Last year first quarter PS3 total = 950.9k
950.9*1.05 = 998.4, 950.9*1.1 = 1046k

Jan+Feb 2011 PS3 total = 670k
Mar PS3 = 328.4k to 376k
Click to expand...
Thank heavens. I thought I was going to have to spell it out for y'all.
 
I just don't see room for 40$ retail handheld games in a post iPhone world. I think Nintendo will see decent system sales and decent to excellent first party attach rates, as usual. Still, it's a losing battle in the long run and they risk not being as relevant in 5-10 years by not spreading their IP out over multiple devices in the next 1-5 years.

Of course they're still sitting pretty next to what I think of the new PSPs chances.

Sony really needs to hit that 199$ price with the PS3 to be relevant, and I'd bet that MS is hoping to have the xbox 720 out about the same time to cut the legs out from under it, though they might not be quite ready in time.
 
Tylahedras said:
I just don't see room for 40$ retail handheld games in a post iPhone world. I think Nintendo will see decent system sales and decent to excellent first party attach rates, as usual. Still, it's a losing battle in the long run and they risk not being as relevant in 5-10 years by not spreading their IP out over multiple devices in the next 1-5 years.
Click to expand...
Probably not the right month to post this.
 
Tylahedras said:
I just don't see room for 40$ retail handheld games in a post iPhone world. I think Nintendo will see decent system sales and decent to excellent first party attach rates, as usual. Still, it's a losing battle in the long run and they risk not being as relevant in 5-10 years by not spreading their IP out over multiple devices in the next 1-5 years.
Click to expand...
They do have their IP on multiple devices.

But I'm guessing you mean third-party devices, which is an argument I don't understand.
 
Tron 2.0 said:
500k for Killzone 3 is bad.
Click to expand...

It is. But it's not entirely unexpected. KZ2 I'm sure left many people cold, and KZ3 did a good job and giving the middle finger to alot of KZ2 fans. Given that, they have patched alot back in, but it's a little too late (for me anyway).

GG was always in an odd position, they listened to the critics and got burned (imo). :p
 
Tron 2.0 said:
500k for Killzone 3 is bad.
Click to expand...
Not that bad. Killzone 2 was at around 600k during the same timeframe and that game had a lot more hype and a lot more backlash.

If anything, it shows that Killzone is an established franchise, and not a growing one.
 
Opiate said:
I was thinking the exact opposite for Dance Central.
Click to expand...

Well, he didn't say "Dance Central being 360-exclusive has been great for Harmonix." :P

CadetMahoney said:
It is bad, I hope UC3 doesn't follow the same fate.
Click to expand...

UC2 sold way the hell better than KZ2 and was certainly received way the hell better than KZ2.
 
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