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May 2011 NPD Article (Gamasutra)

J

jvm

Gamasutra.
My colleagues at Gamasutra have again published a short article I wrote about the latest NPD Group estimates for the U.S. retail video game industry. Click through to the full story.
Direct link to Gamasutra story about May 2011 NPD Group estimates.
There are lots of things mentioned there. Hopefully some of it will interest you.
  • Y'all enjoy seeings the hardware ASPs. I have two months in there this time: April and May.
  • Looking at Wii and PS3 sales, for effects of price cut and network outage, respectively.
  • Not in the article, but I figured y'all'd want to know: NDS was approximately twice 3DS in May.
  • In a rush today, or would add more here...
One image from the article, just for fun. Can you spot the month of the price cut?
psp-sales-by-month-2011.png

The NPD Group was very coöperative this time, and I'm very thankful for their help. You may have noticed they have a new analyst responding to questions, Liam Callahan. He's a very nice chap to work with.

I'll be around some of day, so when you find mistakes, please let me know. I'll try to answer questions too, if there's something you think I got wrong or that would be worth chatting about.

As always, I'm up for corrections, comments, etc. Please don't take a lack of immediate response personally -- I may simply not be here. My overlordseditors will probably be watching the thread, so changes may happen without a direct response from me.

In case you'd like to review previous threads:
2007: Oct Nov Dec
2008: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2011: Jan Feb Mar Apr
 
While Nintendo is managing the end of the Wii and the beginning of the Wii U, they are also managing four different models of handhelds on the market. The Nintendo DS Lite is still available, but at $100 it appears to be on its way out. The Nintendo DSi ($150) and larger Nintendo DSi XL ($170) are still the dominant models for the DS platform, as indicated by the platform's $150 ASP in recent months.
Click to expand...

.

The DSi/DSi XL are still very successful, and the 3DS pricepoint is still comparitively high. 3DS sales shouldn't be expected to eclipse them at this point, so Nintendo is trying to find a way to slowly phase out sales of the older models.
 
So NPD is now providing digital sales data to its paying customers eh? I wonder if we'll ever get an inkling of how GoD or PSN PS3/PSP titles have sold.
 
Takao said:
Starting to come to the point where you can't even give away PSPs.
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The PSP sold roughly 2/3rds the amount of the 3DS. Dunno why you'd think that. :p

Great article JVM!
 
chubigans said:
The PSP sold roughly 2/3rds the amount of the 3DS. Dunno why you'd think that. :p

Great article JVM!
Click to expand...

But PSP is cheap, and has games available that people would play.

3DS has neither.
 
Takao said:
But PSP is cheap, and has games available that people would play.

3DS has neither.
Click to expand...

Also, the 3DS has this weird shit going on with its screen that I'm thinking might have been done to it on purpose....
 
The_Technomancer said:
Probably not that much better, not like...orders of magnitude or anything. It still lacks games.
Click to expand...
Yes, it'd be orders of magnitude more, if only by virtue of being cheaper than DSi/XL. :P

You can still play Pokemon BW on a 3DS after all.
 
Finally, when asked about accessories, Callahan elaborated that “PS3 accessory sales were positive in May 2011 versus May 2010.” That suggests to us that PSN card sales were up relative to last year, but by how much we cannot be sure. Last month we asked about April PSN card sales and were informed that, in terms of units, card sales were up 4 percent.
Click to expand...

I would think that Move is going to have more to do with sales being up than the cards. Move sales went from 0 last year to an increase of whatever they sold this year. Also just being up wouldn't tell us if the cards were unaffected or not. We need to know how much they were up for the first three months of the year then compare that to april/may. Being up 4 percent in April could end up showing a huge hit because of PSN if they have been up significantly more than that in previous months.


Callahan noted: “Mortal Kombat and L.A. Noire performed better on the PS3, while Brink was favored by the 360. Portal 2 was inline with the current ratio of the 360 to PS3 install.”

The table also shows that Mortal Kombat is the only title for which the PS3 version sold better than the Xbox 360 version in terms of unit sales and not relative to the installed base. In that case, the PS3 version sold 11 percent more units than did the Xbox 360 version. On the other hand, Brink sold 160 percent more units on the Xbox 360 than it did on the PS3.
Click to expand...
This info doesn't really tell us anything about PSN affecting games without knowing what the ratios had been in previous months when PSN was up and running. As far as I can recall the ratios have generally leaned towards the PS3 when you compare software sales to install base. As an example, your February article discusses how the PS3 software titles usually outperform their 360 counterparts with respect to the install bases.
 
I don't think PSN being out had a big effect at all. Shooters sell better on 360 because this is the market MS groomed over the years. Get outside of shooters though and the PS3 holds its own in many cases regarding software sales.


Takao said:
But PSP is cheap, and has games available that people would play.

3DS has neither.
Click to expand...

Well in my case I'm waiting on Vita. :P

I don't own a PSP and have a couple PSP games on PSN. I'm not gonna play them with that crappy analog nub on the PSP.
 
Question. Was it Gamasutra that said last year after the PS3 did a big month that the 360 would never outsell it again? That comment kind of sticks with me because the exact opposite eventually went on to happen.
 
LQX said:
Question. Was it Gamasutra that said last year after the PS3 did a big month that the 360 would never outsell it again? That comment kind of sticks with me because the exact opposite eventually went on to happen.
Click to expand...

Might be confusing it with the Edge comment in early 08 irrc that said 360 may never outsell PS3 again.
 
Glad to see Gamasutra's on board the "Wii Should Finish 1st in June" bandwagon with me.

While there's a possibility that the Wii U news will undercut the momentum of May's price cut after this initial surge, I tend to think of the typical Wii purchaser as shall we say "less informed" than someone who would purchase the PSP so I don't believe the looming presence of a successor system will cripple sales that much.

After all, the DS is still going strong and we still have both Just Dance 2 and Zumba Fitness lighting up sales charts.
 
L.A. Noire didn't sell better on PS3?

edit: that quote snippet above was misleading. He meant in terms of install base ratio, not net sales. Reading full articles is good for my health, sorry. Nothing to see here, carry on.
 
Jtyettis said:
Might be confusing it with the Edge comment in early 08 irrc that said 360 may never outsell PS3 again.
Click to expand...
Wasn't that Campbell and Whitta in the Next-Gen.biz/Game Theory podcast?

I recall that too. And I am fairly sure I'd try to avoid putting myself that far out on a limb.
 
jvm said:
Wasn't that Campbell and Whitta in the Next-Gen.biz/Game Theory podcast?

I recall that too. And I am fairly sure I'd try to avoid putting myself that far out on a limb.
Click to expand...

Can't say who the editor was at that time, but I found the qoute on Neogaf, but it links back to next-gen.biz

EDITOR'S VIEW: The PlayStation 3 Rebirth

Consumers are replacing their TV sets with high-def flat-screens. They will also replace their DVD players with Blu-ray players. They will seek the machine that is noted for its quality; the one that is future-proof; the one with the trust-worthy brand name; the one that, wow, also plays games. They will invest in PlayStation.

So is it all over for Xbox 360? No, the sales numbers are still in that platform’s favor. But sales numbers change quickly. I’m going to predict that, at some point in 2008, Xbox 360 will enjoy its last ever month outselling PlayStation 3. It will be Blu-ray, not Metal Gear Solid, that makes this happen.
Click to expand...

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=230386

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=8734&Itemid=2

1-21-08.

Link simply takes you to the Edge homepage now.
 
Jtyettis said:
Can't say who the editor was at that time, but I found the qoute on Neogaf, but it links back to next-gen.biz
Click to expand...
Looks like Colin Campbell's writing to me, from the quote. And he and Whitta were discussing it around that time on the podcast.

Fun times!
 
Interesting to see the numbers on 3DS.... I recently picked up a 3DS because I simply couldn't help myself, but I still believe it's priced too high for a handheld. I don't think it will eclipse sales of the NDS anytime this year (or more perhaps) until a price drop happens, and a lot more compelling software comes out. People just don't seem to want to pay the same price for a handheld that they're paying for a home console (roughly). If anything, these numbers solidify that a bit more....
 
jvm said:
Looks like Colin Campbell's writing to me, from the quote. And he and Whitta were discussing it around that time on the podcast.

Fun times!
Click to expand...

Was that Whitta's prediction as well? He agree? Since that time I would say what 6 times or so in three and half years PS3 was on top. At or around that anyways. Three and half years gives a lot of perspective. Bad call on BR though.

bigtroyjon said:
LOL, only have read the first page so far but I'm shocked to find it filled with banned posters agreeing with PS3 rising to the heavens.
Click to expand...

Filled up with the classics like hooker and snah. GAF was good times back then.
 
Jtyettis said:
Was that Whitta's prediction as well? He agree? Since that time I would say what 6 times or so in three and half years PS3 was on top. At or around that anyways. Three and half years gives a lot of perspective. Bad call on BR though.
Click to expand...
I think Colin and Gary were both on that. They said something, in jest originally, about how the PS3 would outsell the Xbox 360 by the end of that year (2008). Then the NPD figures came in and the PS3 *had* outsold the Xbox 360 and they doubled down, perhaps to what was in that editorial.
Filled up with the classics like hooker and snah. GAF was good times back then.
Click to expand...
I feel like we had more good data back then, but worse discussions. Now I think there are lots of keen observers on GAF (e.g. the last round of mods) but less hard data to discuss. :(
 
bigtroyjon said:
LOL, only have read the first page so far but I'm shocked to find it filled with banned posters agreeing with PS3 rising to the heavens.
Click to expand...

I forgot just how hard people leaned on Blu-ray back then for their predictions.
 
jvm said:
Looks like Colin Campbell's writing to me, from the quote.
Click to expand...

Yeah, according to Google Cache, it was indeed Colin Campbell.

It has endured a horrible introduction to the world, but PlayStation 3 has survived. Now it’s set to prosper. Next-Gen's editor-in-chief Colin Campbell explains…

Digg this story here.

The thing about brands? They’re all about reputation. And PlayStation’s reputation has taken a beating.

We need not go into detail here, but it’s sufficient to make the point that Sony’s dominance is over forever and its survival in the game industry at all has seemed, at times, less than certain.

Many brands would not have lived through the ignominious introduction of PlayStation 3.

But the PlayStation brand and the Sony brand have survived. They have clung on. They are still here. And now they are going to come back into play. The battle against Xbox 360 (let’s leave Wii aside for now) is not over. In fact, it’s only just beginning. And PlayStation will be the ultimate winner, although what that actually means is something I reckon is worth analyzing in its own right.

Here’s why PlayStation 3’s fortunes are turning.
Click to expand...
 
Back in the day BRD wasn't the only argument for the inevitable PS3's victory - I remember standard HDD, infinite Cell potential and some other memes being repeated like a mantra. Overall some people honestly believed that PS3 was the only future proof console.

I think we're at the point when no one attempts to predict the long term victor which is pretty good (this gen's almost over anyway, but I don't see heated Vita vs 3DS discussions).
 
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